Spanish Netherlands retain Brabant & Zeeland/Alternate 12 Yrs Truce

Basically how would this alter the geopolitics of the era (most esp the War of Julich Succession & 30 Yrs War) if Spain retained Zeeland and Brabant south of the Muese River. Also how would this affect the Netherlands as the generality lands are much reduced.
 
Basically how would this alter the geopolitics of the era (most esp the War of Julich Succession & 30 Yrs War) if Spain retained Zeeland and Brabant south of the Muese River. Also how would this affect the Netherlands as the generality lands are much reduced.

Would this mean the Scheldt isn't closed? Cause that in and of itself could be a major boon (yes, I know the Dutch have better harbours - i.e. Amsterdam) to the economy. The closing of the Scheldt pretty much killed Antwerp's hopes of a revival after the Spanish Fury. It recovered, but not to what it had been. Even in the 1610s an English diplomat wrote of how grass grew in the streets and it wasn't uncommon to see a peddlar with all his possessions (trinkets and home) on his back.
 
Yes, basically the Netherlands-S. Netherlands border will be the Muese river. And Zeeland South of the Muese's mouth is retained/re-captured.
 

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Basically how would this alter the geopolitics of the era (most esp the War of Julich Succession & 30 Yrs War) if Spain retained Zeeland and Brabant south of the Muese River. Also how would this affect the Netherlands as the generality lands are much reduced.

Zeeland was one of the most Calvinist regions during the Dutch revolt, even more than Groningen up in the North. Holding it is possible but really hard.

But if the Spanish were to hold Zeeland, it means supplies can enter Antwerp as well and no Dutch incursions in Flanders. It will not regain its old glory but might become an important city for trade again. Since Philips II held a fierce anti Protestant policy and many Flemish were protestant the city lost its native merchants. The city wont recover until after the war.
 
Well, the blockade wouldn't end. After the fall of Antwerp in 1584 there were only two small forts on the shore of the Schelde in the hands of the republic. It was the fact that there was a constant patrol of zeeuwse warvessels that kept the traders out. They stopped ships and if they found cargo they could sell in the zeeuwse harbors like middelburg they transfered these to their own ships. During the negotiations leading towards het twaaljarig bestand, the Spanish did demand a stop to this practise, but that was not negotiable at all.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Would this mean the Scheldt isn't closed? Cause that in and of itself could be a major boon (yes, I know the Dutch have better harbours - i.e. Amsterdam) to the economy. The closing of the Scheldt pretty much killed Antwerp's hopes of a revival after the Spanish Fury. It recovered, but not to what it had been. Even in the 1610s an English diplomat wrote of how grass grew in the streets and it wasn't uncommon to see a peddlar with all his possessions (trinkets and home) on his back.

Actually Antwerp was by far the superior port until the Nieuwe Waterweg enabled Rotterdam to become the biggest port in the world. In fact, for East Indiamen to reach the port of Amsterdam they had to use Shipcamels:

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The approaches were simply too shallow.
 
Zeeland was one of the most Calvinist regions during the Dutch revolt, even more than Groningen up in the North. Holding it is possible but really hard.

But if the Spanish were to hold Zeeland, it means supplies can enter Antwerp as well and no Dutch incursions in Flanders. It will not regain its old glory but might become an important city for trade again. Since Philips II held a fierce anti Protestant policy and many Flemish were protestant the city lost its native merchants. The city wont recover until after the war.

Would holding Zeelandic Flanders (Zeeuws Vlaanderen) be enough to be able to keep Antwerpen open? It would imply a Spanish-Southern Netherlands naval presence, which can keep Zeelandic raiders at bay, though for that to be possible they must be able to defeat the navy of Zeeland. Zeelandic Flanders, North Brabant and Dutch Limbur, especially at this point, would not be harder to hold by the Spanish than the rest of the Southern Netherlands. It would mean a blow to the house of Orange-Nassau, their original core possession in the Low Countries was the Barony ((High) Lordship) of Breda in North Brabant (the marriage of Johanna of Polanen, heiress of Breda, with count Engelbrecht of Nassau-Dillenburg brought the house of Nassau to the Low Countries).
 
Would holding Zeelandic Flanders (Zeeuws Vlaanderen) be enough to be able to keep Antwerpen open? It would imply a Spanish-Southern Netherlands naval presence, which can keep Zeelandic raiders at bay, though for that to be possible they must be able to defeat the navy of Zeeland. Zeelandic Flanders, North Brabant and Dutch Limbur, especially at this point, would not be harder to hold by the Spanish than the rest of the Southern Netherlands. It would mean a blow to the house of Orange-Nassau, their original core possession in the Low Countries was the Barony ((High) Lordship) of Breda in North Brabant (the marriage of Johanna of Polanen, heiress of Breda, with count Engelbrecht of Nassau-Dillenburg brought the house of Nassau to the Low Countries).

If the Spanish dont send more naval forces there Zeeuws-Vlaanderen won't be enough to keep Antwerpen open. Especially with towns, villages and fortifications on the coast of Walcheren island and Zuid Beveland which can hit Spanish Ships to Antwerpen.

There is one positive effect of it. Middelburg will also be harder to supply from the Sea by the Dutch. It works both ways.

I agree with the part about Limburg and Brabant. Spain could and should have hold the two provinces. Especially because those were until the 70s the most Catholic region of the Netherlands. Even more than Flanders during early war. And I am not sure if this also would mean a blow to house of Orange-Nassau. The early attempt to invade the Low Lands by William of Orange failed horribly but it did not tarnish the reputation that much.
 
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So rather than holding all of Zeeland, how could the spanish hold Zeelandic-Flanders, Brabant & Limburg? or better and this is a big leep by some stroke of madness Philipp II offers Isabella Clara Eugenia to Matthias while he's governor of the Neds and spins the whole thing as a branch (granted its mighty unlikely but would be greatly interesting)
 
So rather than holding all of Zeeland, how could the spanish hold Zeelandic-Flanders, Brabant & Limburg? or better and this is a big leep by some stroke of madness Philipp II offers Isabella Clara Eugenia to Matthias while he's governor of the Neds and spins the whole thing as a branch (granted its mighty unlikely but would be greatly interesting)

Well... not that difficult. The area remained either Catholic or was Recatholized. You just need more focus on the area and maybe more appeasment. The Spanish fought a lot of wars, against France and the Turks and even prepared for an invasion of England. Avoid at least the War against the Ottomans and England and put full focus on securing the land south of the Rhine. No intervention against the French Calvinists is preferable but a devout Catholic Philips II will not close his eyes for that.
 
Keep the region, and keep Antwerpen as a port, which can rival Amsterdam. That also works two ways, the south remains richer and the north gains less wealth.
 
Keep the region, and keep Antwerpen as a port, which can rival Amsterdam. That also works two ways, the south remains richer and the north gains less wealth.

As long as Spain is hostile to Protestantism and the Dutch just tolerate Catholicism Amsterdam will prevail over Antwerpen. Most merchants of the city fled when the Spanish Military raided.
 
Actually Antwerp was by far the superior port until the Nieuwe Waterweg enabled Rotterdam to become the biggest port in the world. In fact, for East Indiamen to reach the port of Amsterdam they had to use Shipcamels:


The approaches were simply too shallow.
Depends on what you mean with superior; the port of Amsterdam is also hard to blockade, because it has the Zuiderzee and Waddenzee as buffers for any defending navy to hang out in, while Antwerp has only the rather narrow Westerschelde to defend from. The English tried rather remote blockades against the Dutch during the various Anglo-Dutch wars, while the Dutch could blockade Antwerp very closely due to its geography.
 
As long as Spain is hostile to Protestantism and the Dutch just tolerate Catholicism Amsterdam will prevail over Antwerpen. Most merchants of the city fled when the Spanish Military raided.

Antwerpen as a open port, instead of a blocked one would have been a world a difference already. Sure perhaps it's likely that Amsterdam will surpass it in terms of prominence, though in this scenario somewhat less prominent than IOTL, but an open port will attract new traders and even if the core trade would be with the 'Catholic world', then it would still be better than OTL.
If one looks for (temporary) Habsburg pragmatism, then the entire Burgundian Inheritance would have been better off under the relatively weaker Austrian branch.
 
Zeeland was one of the most Calvinist regions during the Dutch revolt, even more than Groningen up in the North. Holding it is possible but really hard.

But if the Spanish were to hold Zeeland, it means supplies can enter Antwerp as well and no Dutch incursions in Flanders. It will not regain its old glory but might become an important city for trade again. Since Philips II held a fierce anti Protestant policy and many Flemish were protestant the city lost its native merchants. The city wont recover until after the war.
Taking it will be quite hard, with all those cities on all those islands. As for the religious side. Around 1600 only 10 % of the populations of Zeeland and Holland were definitely in the protestant camp. The percentage in Antwerp when conquered by Parma in 1585 was higher. He gave the protestants three years to either convert or leave. A same pragmatic policy in Zeeland might work.
 
Taking it will be quite hard, with all those cities on all those islands. As for the religious side. Around 1600 only 10 % of the populations of Zeeland and Holland were definitely in the protestant camp. The percentage in Antwerp when conquered by Parma in 1585 was higher. He gave the protestants three years to either convert or leave. A same pragmatic policy in Zeeland might work.

Well... that too... tons of islands back then to take and assert the Spanish control over it.

10% seems too low for me to control most of Holland and Zeeland (Without Zeeuws Vlaanderen) by radical Calvinists. If so, that would make absolute Catholic Majority support the Spanish and easier to retake Holland and eventually Zeeland from the Rebels, which did not happen.

I agree on your part about Flemish protestants. They influenced and increased Calvinism in the Northern Netherlands. Especially in Holland.

I believe there were Catholic majorities in Holland or atleast in certain parts but the Protestants being just 10% in those areas is hard for me to believe.
 
Would focusing on the Dutch rather than the English with regards to the Spanish Armada & avoiding the Anglo-Spanish War (the one that started in 1585) be helpful to reclaiming Zeeland and Brabant? With the intention that once captured or suppressed, Spain could double back on England afterwards
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Depends on what you mean with superior; the port of Amsterdam is also hard to blockade, because it has the Zuiderzee and Waddenzee as buffers for any defending navy to hang out in, while Antwerp has only the rather narrow Westerschelde to defend from. The English tried rather remote blockades against the Dutch during the various Anglo-Dutch wars, while the Dutch could blockade Antwerp very closely due to its geography.

True ofcourse. However, if you only look at it's capability to service merchantships and acces to the hinterland Antwerpen was far, far superior to it's Dutch counterparts until the building of the Nieuwe Waterweg.
 
Would focusing on the Dutch rather than the English with regards to the Spanish Armada & avoiding the Anglo-Spanish War (the one that started in 1585) be helpful to reclaiming Zeeland and Brabant? With the intention that once captured or suppressed, Spain could double back on England afterwards

The Armada was suppose to bring the already in the south stationed army over to England. With regards to landforces, there is no difference. Farnese was already busy reclaiming Catholic and loyalist lands. Zeeland did not belong to that campaign. Brabant however could. Farnese could redraw the border all the way to the Rhine, with cities like Nijmegen remaining Spanish.

What the Armada can do is raid. The existence of the Armada to just use it against the Dutch is too expensive for the Spanish. I can see the Armada being diverted to France or the colonies. Which is better in my eyes.
 
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