Ricardolindo
Banned
What if the incident with a Japanese ship in Manila in 1896 had led to war between Japan and Spain? Which country would win the war? If Japan won, what would it have gotten, in the peace treaty?
Considering the overall health of the Spanish Empire in the 1890s, and that the Japanese have just given a swift kick in the rear to one of their regional rivals, I see the Japanese as winning in an equivalent of Manila Bay and basically cutting the Spanish off from any real control of the Philippines. However, I don't see Japan outright annexing the Philippines, and instead turning them into a vassal state.
Would Japan have annexed the minor Spanish possessions in Micronesia?
There’s no chance the Western powers would let Japan have the Philippines. See Triple Intervention of 1895.
The Japanese interests at this time were all aimed at China, Manchuria and Korea and their main prospective opponents were the Russians. I agree, they showed little interest in spreading over the Pacific until World War I when they were aiding their British allies against Germany holdings in the area.
As has been said by others in this forum, Russia only intervened because it believed the Liandong Peninsula to be in its sphere of influence and France and Germany only intervened in support of Russia. They would have no interest to intervene regarding the Philippines.
But until, they defeat the Russians in 1904-05, they likely would not go against the the other European powers in trying to take the Philippines, and also would likely would defer tp the British who were a senior partner in their alliance.
What would Japan do with he Philippines if it doesn't annex them? Sell them? Make them into a puppet state?
What would Japan do with he Philippines if it doesn't annex them? Sell them? Make them into a puppet state?
I wouldn't be 100% sure of that. They had a deep interest in undercutting the perception they could be made to suffer under unequal treaties like those imposed on them when Admiral Perry showed up. Fighting and beating a European power would be something they wanted to prove they could do. Winning against China had already shocked European observers, and after the Triple Intervention its very possible that the Japanese could seek to make a point by fighting a weaker European power.
I can see them fighting the Spanish and winning, but I agree they would not outright annex the Philippines. The problem though, is that if they don't want them, someone else most likely will (Germany, the US) which raises a whole host of issues over who should have them...
There is no united Filipino nationalism in 1896, Visayas and Mindanao want their own independent states, that makes a puppet united state ASB.