Spanish Intervention in Imjin War

This spun off from the 'Spanish colonise Korea' thread but it is enough removed from the purpose of that thread to justify it's own posting. I was thinking about a Imjin war TL along more Korea-wank lines earlier, but I was suddenly propelled along completely different lines instead.

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Hideyoshi had begun to prepare for an invasion of Korea and China from at least 1586. Though Korea had no standing army, it possessed a formidable navy that was well experienced in repelling the Japanese wokou pirates. The Korean ships out-ranged and out-gunned Japanese ships in all respects. Hideyoshi was aware of the strength of Portugeuse ships and attempted to hire several galleons, but the Jesuit Superior claimed to be unable to commit to such a deal[1]. Though the Jesuits spoke of the possibility of Japanese Christian soldiers invading China in their letters with Spanish and Portugeuse officialdom, in reality they were afraid of their interests in Macau and elsewhere. Unbeturbed, Hideyoshi instead sent a letter to the Spanish authorities in Manila, requesting a naval alliance, in 1588. His initial impulse had been to simply demand tribute, but he was convinced by Jesuit advisors to take a more diplomatic approach.

This request took a slow time in answering, due to a sudden and widespread revolt against the Spanish rule in the Philippines that was causing chaos in both Manila and the countryside [2]. This rebellion was being supported by Japanese mercenaries and the Sultan of Brunei, and the Spanish found their position increasingly precarious. The Spanish Governer, desperate, made a deal with Hideyoshi: Japanese assistance in crushing the revolt in exchange for Spanish naval support in their invasion of Korea. The Japanese warriors, mostly from the Christian daimyo of the western regions both friendly with the Jesuits and loyal to Hideyoshi, arrived aboard Portugeuse ships and were able to quickly suppress the uprising in cooperation with Spanish and Filipino colonial troops. The Japanese soon came into conflict with the Audiencia of Manila, but the arrival of the new Spanish Governor Gomez Perez Dasmarinas as well as a belated number of ships and reinforcements sent from New Spain led to an arrangement being formed.

Now with a mildly dangerous excessive of troops in Manila, it was decided to cooperate in full with the Japanese endeavour. Dasmaranas promised a number of Spanish galleys and galleons, as well as a fair number of mercenary troops recently arrived from New Spain. Some ships were used that were meant to be guarding the Manila-to-Acapulco trade lanes, but we borrowed without authorisation from the Crown under the understanding that their involvement would be temporary. Others were constructed in the Philippines or New Spain for the express purpose. . The Spanish fleet sailed for Japan in 1592. Hideyoshi had spent the time building a vast number of transport vessels to supply a huge army for the invasion of the peninsula. An important component was vast stores of saltpeter to fuel the invasion.

The Jesuits in Japan itself were in a quandry, as they found themselves politically obliged to assist with a war against the Joseon, which could soon involve the Ming. Alessandro Valignano, the chief Jesuit who had returned upon the death of Coehlo, resolved to try to estricate the Jesuits from military involvement. As secular support was now flowing in from the Spanish Philippines, this was permitted and even encouraged by Hideyoshi (who had earlier begun to see Jesuit power as a threat). The Jesuits also found themselves under the religious scrutiny of arriving Franciscans from the Philippines. It seemed best to withdraw from the political and economic realms for the time being.

For the invasion, Toyotomi Hideyoshi mobilized seven fully-equipped divisions, nearly 150,000 men and gathered a fleet of some 700 ships, transport vessels, naval ships and small craft to move his army across the Tsushima Strait. Many of the approximately 9,000 seamen who manned the Hideyoshi's fleet were reportedly former pirates. The Spanish fleet initially consisted of around 70, though initially there were for the most part galleys with only a handful of large galleons. In addition, there were several hundred Spanish mercenaries and volunteers, who were mostly placed under the leadership of Christian generals loyal to Hideyoshi.

The combined fleet was able to sail uncontested to Busan, where they landed and besieged the city. The Joseon garrison troops proved no match for Japanese soldiers armed with short-range brass cannon and matchlock muskets. Moreover, they faced an army with extensive combat experience, men already bloodied from the many campaigns of Japan's Warring States period. The naval commanders of Gyeongsan province scuttled their navies, destroyed their facilities and fled. Admiral Yi Sunshin sailed from Jeolla province in the west to attack the Japanese fleet, but was engaged by the Spanish fleet. The Spanish fleet, though it took a greater than expected number of losses, almost completely wiped out the Korean fleet, and what remained of it fled to the west. With the Korean navy effectively neutralised, the Japanese were able to land huge armies and supplies in Korea.

The Japanese armies pushed north, defeating the poorly trained and led Koreans at almost every turn. The main objective of the assault on Korea was plunder. The Japanese deployed six special units with orders to steal books, maps, paintings, craftsmen (especially potters) and their handicrafts, people to be enslaved, precious metals, national treasures, and domestic animals. Meeting little resistance, the Japanese ravaged the civilian population. Entire villages were swept up in the raids. Japanese merchants sold some of their loot to Portuguese and Spanish merchants anchored offshore and took the rest to Japan. They took only ten days to reach Seoul, whereupon the Joseon court fled north to Pyeongyang, watched by howling resentful crowds of commoners. As riots overcame Seoul, the Japanese were able to capture the city without firing a shot. Meanwhile, other Japanese armies landed in the north, where they smashed coastal fortresses and ravaged the towns, while the Spanish fleet moved slowly around the Jeolla coast destroying much of what remained of the Korean naval defenses (but often at a large cost). Though the turtle ships used by Yi Sunshin showed promise against the Spanish fleet, they were too few in number. Yi Sunshin fled with what remained of his navy across the West Sea to the Ming.

Chased out of Pyeongyang by the Japanese, the Joseon court fled to the border city of Uiju where they sent a letter requesting assistance from the Ming. Three vanguard divisions moved north, two towards the Yalu and one east toward the Tumen. These divisions included Spanish mercenaries and now included some Koreans (the next order of business was attacking the Jurchens, long-time enemies of the Koreans, and the standing of the Joseon court had reached such low levels that what Korean generals remained were often willing to throw their lot in with the Japanese. The northern vanguard under General Kato, having taken the northern Hamgyeong province, crossed the Tumen river to engage the Jurchens. General Konishi moved to the secure the destruction or surrender of the Joseon Yalu river outposts, while General Yasuhara met a Ming army of 5,000 outside Uiju and destroyed them. King Seonjo was taken by the Japanese, as were his two sons. The conquest of Korea was complete, and preparations were made for the invasion of Manchuria. Here the Japanese faced the Jurchen barbarians, and the vast armies of the Ming.

[1] The first PoD is the removal of Gabral Coelho as Jesuit Superior by bandits or disease or some such a number of years earlier. A Jesuit Superior with a better political savvy and less overconfidence doesn't enthusiastically claim to be able to rustle up a number of Portugeuse galleons and an army from India, and doesn't engage in the kind of political grand-standing that made Hideyoshi become so suspicious of Coelho and the Jesuits in particular and Christianity in general in OTL.

[2] A cheeky second PoD justified with butterflies, wherein the Tondo conspiracy of Manila nobles against the Spanish rule is not discovered in 1588 and instead makes its move the following year during the Revolts against the Tribues that wracked the provinces. This, combined with intervention by Brunei and some Japanese mercenaries working for themselves, puts the Spanish colonial authorities into a dangerous position and forces them to take an unusual step in requesting official Japanese aid.
 
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While logic says than Spain will backstab those filthy pagans soon, the sheer awesomeness of a centuries long Spanish-Japanese alliance simliar to the british.portuguese one is too good to pass.

Specially with the Brits getting uppity and setting colonies in (rightfully Spanish) North America. Japanese Cascadia and Canada, anyone?
 
Hideyoshi's invasion of Manchuria began auspiciously. The two advance vanguards marching north from Pyeongyang were joined by the arrival of 10000 reinforcements under Yasuhara. Spanish galleons and galleys secured the Japanese supply routes through the West Sea, which were far more reliable than the land routes plagued by Korean guerillas. The Christian daimyo Konishi Yukinaga was notable for including a significant number of Spanish and Filipino auxiliary troops. These vanguards destroyed a Chinese army of 5,000 that crossed into Korea, and finally advanced across the Yalu, entering China itself.

Meanwhile, Kato in the north crossed the Tumen to engage the Jurchens there. In this endeavour he was joined by Korean allies, who had betrayed the Joseon princes that had fled to Hamgyeong. The Koreans had been raided by the Jurchens for years, and were happy to join the Japanese attack on the northern barbarians. Kato's army siezed a Jurchen castle, but it was quickly surrounded by a army of Jurchen horsemen. After a sieze, Kato retreated to Hamgyeong for reinforcements and supplies, before crossing the river once more. This time, however, they found the Jurchen army much reduced in size. The Jurchen, led by Nurhachi, were under attack by a coalition of tribes led by the Yehe. Taking advantage, Kato's forces pushed forward. Despite the natural advantage possessed by the Jurchen horsemen in their native environment, Kato won a shattering victory over their depleted numbers. The Jurchen tribes were scattered, but it was a Phyrric victory for Kato. His numbers were much depleted, and he was now dangerously dependant on his Korean cavalry auxiliaries.

The Japanese armies under Konishi and Koruda invaded the Liaodong peninsula in late, breaching the Liaodong Wall using heavy gunpowder weapons taken from the Koreans. A large Chinese force was mobilized by General Li Rusong, though they found themselves quickly on the defensive. At least initially, the Chinese troops were ill-trained and equipped, and the Japanese were able to deal several deadly defeats, capturing Chinese fortresses. Meanwhile, more troops under Yasuhara landed in the south of the peninsula at the Sanshan seaport [Dalian], seizing the coastal regions and stripping them of resources. The Wanli Emperor decided to send several massive expeditionary forces to deal with the Japanese invaders, and a large number of soldiers were recruited in the south due to their experience in the use of firearms and with fighting the Japanese wokou pirates. The Navy was also mobilized, including the turtle ships of the refugee admiral Yi Sunshin.

The Ming counterattack was legendary, involving vast numbers of troops from all over the empire. The Japanese were finding themselves spread thin, and facing forces of vastly superior numbers. Meanwhile, the Chinese attacked the Japanese ships at sea. The Spanish galleons and galleys were able to keep their distance and bombard the Chinese ships from afar, but the numbers began to take their toll. Naval mines were placed in key areas by the Chinese, which combined with rough weather led to chaos in the Japanese naval supply lines. Meanwhile, the land routes were under increasing pressure from Korean guerillas. In the countryside, 'Righteous Armies' of peasants under the command of local nobles were proving more troublesome than the Korean army had been during the initial invasion.

The Japanese retreated south across the Yalu, pursued by the Ming expeditionary forces. The retreat was assisted by the late arrival of Kato and his army marching from the northeast. Kato's forces, outnumbered, were betrayed by their Korean auxiliaries, who took to the Ming side. Kato's tired army, who had ravaged the Jurchen lands, were annihilated. Their sacrifice did delay the Ming, however, enough for the Japanese to prepare their defenses in northern Korea. The battles that followed ravaged the Korean north, as the Japanese forces were able to hold the Ming forces at bay. However, continued Ming reinforcements were stretching things dangerously thin. After withdrawing to Kaesong following the Chinese siege and capture of Pyongyang, Konishi was compelled to sue for peace.

Konishi favoured peace with the Ming and Joseon, and Li Rusong was willing to offer terms. The Joseon king and his sons had been captured by the Japanese, and this was used to mixed success in the negotiations. Though the Chinese wished to expel the Japanese from the peninsula, it was clear the Japanese position was as yet too strong. Hideyoshi offered to the Chinese an offer to divide the Korean peninsula between the Japanese and the Ming, which led to a round of negotiations kept secret from the Joseon court. The Japanese then decided to restore Seonjo to the throne, in a largely symbolic act of withdrawal. With a fair amount of deception on both sides, an arrangement was formed. Most of the Ming forces were withdrawn, though a garrison force remained in Pyongyang.

The Japanese withdrew some of their armies, but they retained control of most of Jeolla and Gyeongsan regions. In violation of the treaty terms, they began to divide the southern regions of Korea into daimyo fiefdoms of the Japanese model, which were bequeathed upon those who had fought for Hideyoshi. Seonjo returned to a Seoul recently evacuated by the Japanese military and retreated into the temporary palace of Deoksugung. He faced a city filled with spiteful and betrayed commoners and a court teeming with petty factionalism and Japanese agents. In his stead, the Crown Prince ruled, while the rest of the kings sons were held as hostages by the Japanese. This situation, though untenable, was to continue for three years.
 
Great to see the whole idea being propelled into action, and your execution is great so far:)

Oh, Wanli Emperor. The Wanli year 15(1587) was said to be a major turning point of Ming. The good old Grand Secretary Zhang Juzheng was long dead and the Emperor started reversing his benevolent reforms after he felt free without Zhang and complacent with the successes against the Japanese, then stayed out of the court for a total 30 years. Directly leading to the downfall from prosperity to grave doom. Now the war comes out different, I wonder if it would affect the mindset of Wanli. More gripping or even more relaxed? Also would the scattered Jurchen be back onto the stage someday, or would Manchuria never be the same again? Can't wait for your next installment:D

The situation in Korea is on edge indeed, Keep up the good work!
 
The combined fleet was able to sail uncontested to Busan, where they landed and besieged the city. The Joseon garrison troops proved no match for Japanese soldiers armed with short-range brass cannon and matchlock muskets. Moreover, they faced an army with extensive combat experience, men already bloodied from the many campaigns of Japan's Warring States period. The naval commanders of Gyeongsan province scuttled their navies, destroyed their facilities and fled. Admiral Yi Sunshin sailed from Jeolla province in the west to attack the Japanese fleet, but was engaged by the Spanish fleet. The Spanish fleet, though it took a greater than expected number of losses, almost completely wiped out the Korean fleet, and what remained of it fled to the west. With the Korean navy effectively neutralised, the Japanese were able to land huge armies and supplies in Korea.



Wouldn't Spanish ships be beaten by Korean Turtle Ships?
 
Wouldn't Spanish ships be beaten by Korean Turtle Ships?

From what I've been able to work out, I don't think so. The Korean turtle ships had a significant advantage over the Japanese ships because the Japanese were using grapple-and-board tactics in a fleet that was pretty haphhazardly thrown together by Hideyoshi. Iron-clad ships were not unknown in Japan, but they were unutilized in the invasion. The experienced and advanced Korean navy was able to lay waste to the Japanese fleet.

This technical edge did not exist vis-a-vis European vessels. Europeans had been accustomed to the stay-far-away-and-blast-with-broadsides tactical scheme for at least a century before this engagement. In addition, Korean cannons and other gunpowder weapons were of such low caliber as to be withstood by European ships. In addition, at the start of the Japanese invasion there were only a handful of turtle ships. In terms of speed, maneuverability and armament European ships far exceeded the Korean turtle ships, and definately other vessels.

However, the Spanish ships I have postulated involved in this invasion are probably mostly galleys, not galleons. They do suffer losses from the Korean navy. But they do beat them, at least in this war.

Don't count out Korean ironclad ships yet, however. We have not seen the end of Yi Sunshin in this TL.
 
Though the Japanese withdrew from Seoul and it's environs, they remained in firm control of the southern Jeolla and Gyeongsang provinces. The initial bloodlust that characterised the capture of Busan during the war (where the Japanese invaders beheaded men, women, dogs and cows in search of trophies) quickly faded as the Japanese got down to the business of dividing the new territories amongst themselves. The cease-fire with the Ming was considered by the Japanese to be a mere temporary measure, to build up strength for the next push. Though the Ming were now considered a too great a challenge, the Japanese assumed that it was only a matter of time before the Japanese achieved the domination of the Korean peninsula.

The Korean territories under the control of the Japanese, referred to as Zenra and Keiyoshi, were divided and bureaucratized. Individual clans, such as the Kuroda, Konishi, Ukita, Shimazu and the Fukushima clans, recieved vast holdings. In order to reduce resistance by the inhabitants, prominent Korean families who were collaborating with the Japanese were often officially bequeathed with land in the Japanese system. Thus, the Koreans were slowly turned against one another and the resistance of 'Righteous Armies' faltered. Many foot soldiers who had shown mettle in the invasion, particularly during the Liaodong campaign, were also raised to the level of daimyo. This included the famous Daigo Sebasu, born as Sebastian Diaz in Mexico, who was given a vast territory in the Zenra province and founded one of the strongest daimyo clans of Korea.

Zenra and Keiyoshi saw a flow of emigrants from Japan over the few short years. Much of this can be blamed upon policies enacted by Hideyoshi to enforce his will upon Japan. The Edict of Changing Status had decreed that warriors returning to village life were to be expelled, villagers were forced to engage in trade or become merchants and the employment of warriors who had deserted their previous lords was forbidden. These measures destroyed social mobility in Japan, and many saw the new territories as a chance to start anew. Meanwhile, Koreans came from the north. Those who were seen as collaborating with the Japanese as well as ex-slaves trying to preserve their freedom flowed south into the daimyo domains. The Yi Court, though it opposed the daimyo, was distracted by factional fighting as the yangban factions of aristocrats vied for power with each other. Hideyoshi had meanwhile become obsessed with finding a personal heir, and seemed to forget about the Korean situation.

The ceasefire had been negotiated with a fair amount of deception on both sides, fostered by their relative ambassadors. The Ming believed that the Japanese had capitulated to Chinese authority, while Hideyoshi considered the arrangement an agreement between equal states. It was expected that the eventual result would be the further division of Korea into Japanese and Chinese spheres of influence, as well as the bequeathment of a Chinese princess to Hideyoshi and the normalisation of trade relations (thus exempting Japan from China's tributary system). Particularly in the last case, this was a delusion. Things came to a head with the arrival of a Ming emissary to Edo in 1598, who had come with the authority to grant Hideyoshi the title of King of Japan. Upon hearing the emissary's words and realising he had been deceived, Hideyoshi burst into a rage and knocked the Ming emissaries to the ground. He immediately ordered a second invasion of Korea, this time intent upon marching on Beijing

However, this time the Spanish weren't playing. The previous war had led to far more naval losses than the Spanish had anticipated, including several galleons sunk by Korean cannons or Chinese naval mines. These losses had reduced the number of ships available to escort the treasure fleets along the Manila-to-Acapulco route, and these had come under increased attack from English privateers and opportunistic Chinese pirates. These losses without measurable gain for Spain encouraged Philip II to issue a decree forbidding the involvement of Spanish ships in Japanese adventures. The Spanish turned their attention back to subduing the restive parts of the Philippines, and Hideyoshi's written request for naval support for a second invasion went unanswered.

It was thus that the Japanese army that sailed were aboard Japanese ships, who had not been developed in the preceding years under the umbrella of the Spanish galleons. Now without protection, thousands of Japanese soldiers were sent to reinforce their brothers already on the peninsula. They were met this time, however, by a vast Chinese and Korean fleet. Built largely in China, it was the largest fleet that Asia had seen since the treasure ship voyages of Zheng He. Built under the orders of the Wanli, it included a number of ironclad vessels constructed in the north of Korea by the Admiral Yi Sunshin. This fleet, built in the anticipation of having to neutralise the Spanish, had been built with the somewhat-under-duress technical assistance of the Jesuits in China, and the more direct advice by the English privateer Sir Francis Drake, who sailed his own ship anticipating making the Spaniards. The Chinese-Korean fleet far outranged and outgunned the Japanese vessels, and thousands of men were sent to the bottom. The second invasion was over before it began.

But it was not just the Chinese, Koreans, Japanese and English who were surprised by the Spanish withdrawal. Several years earlier during the first invasion, Narusuan, king of Siam, had offered to use his fleet to attack the Japanese home islands, an offer declined by the Ming. This time, however, the Ming decided to take the Siamese up on their offer. However, the Siamese were requested to attack not Japan but the Spanish Philippines themselves. The idea was of course to force the Spanish to withdraw to defend their own islands. The knowledge that the Spanish were not participating in this second war never reached Siam, and Narusuan ordered his navy to attack the Spanish at Manila. The Siamese Siege of Manila came at a time when the Spanish colonial authorities had only recently defeated an insurgency in the hinterland. The sudden arrival of the Siamese navy came almost completely unexpected, but the city was well-defended. The Siamese attack was repulsed with some damage to the city, but a treasure ship was taken by the Siamese. The Spanish in Manila swore revenge for the affront.

Meanwhile, in Korea large armies had been raised to drive the Japanese into the sea, but events took an unexpected turn. Realizing their predicament, many of the Zenra and Keiyoshi daimyo, rather than fight to the death, offered to submit themselves to the Joseon king, swearing loyalty and giving tribute. Koreans who had benefited from the Japanese domination did likewise. This was initially rejected by factions of the Yi Court in Seoul, but the sudden and mysterious death of Seonjo threw a spanner in the works. The Crown Prince Gwanghae maneuvered his way into the throne, and accepted the submission of the Zenra and Keiyoshi daimyo to Joseon.

In Japan, the destruction of the second invasion fleet sent a shockwave through the country. Hideyoshi was enraged and blamed the losses on the treacherous Spanish. He released an Edict banning Christianity and the Spanish from Japan. The Franciscans, who had become comfortable and smug in Edo and it's environs, were now targets for death. Franciscan missionaries and many Japanese Christians were targeted in massacres of vendatta. However, the defeat of the invasion had done terrible damage to the reputation of Hideyoshi, and his edicts went unenforced and ignored by many, including the Christian daimyo of the West.

It was in this deteriorating situation that a vast Ming-Joseon army landed in Japan, and began to march to Kyoto following the route taken by Ming and Joseon ambassadors to Hideyoshi's court. A call to arms was quickly announced, but with the rapid decline of Hideyoshi's stature, many of the clans loyal to Hideyoshi never marched, or had already met watery deaths. Those Japanese forces who came to the defense fought desperately, but were eventually overwhelmed by the vast Ming-Joseon armies. The Siege of Osaka Castle inflicted some grevious damage on the invading forces, but it was eventually destroyed by bombardment by large field artillery landed by the Allied Navy. Edo was taken by a land assault combined with naval bombardment. The Korean participants revenged themselves for the destruction of Seoul, while the Ming Chinese recruits attempted to curry favor with their commanders by collecting Japanese heads. Much of the city was burned, and countless works of art destroyed. The Ming-Korean armies were then withdrawn, having exacted nominal tribute from those daimyo who had avoided the conflict. Toyotomi Hideyoshi was dead, and his name now tarnished. As the ashes of Kyoto cooled, the powerful clans once more turned upon one another.


In 1600, Asia was had been much transformed. The Ming finances were drained by the immense cost of the war in Korea and Sack of Kyoto. In the north, the shattered Jurchen tribes were persecuted and harassed by the Yehe to the north. Korea was under the control of a young king who had out-manuevered his political enemies, and sought to use his new power to force political reform and military innovation. In the south, the former Japanese conquerers were just beginning to be absorbed into the Korean system. Jesuit missionaries spread the word of God throughout the domains of the Catholic daimyo of southern Korea and western Japan, and Portugeuse traders continued to be well established in Nagasaki and Busan, importing arquebuses, tobacco and clocks. Japan, with Edo in ruins and Hideyoshi dead, was to succumb once more to the vicious cycle of clan warfare.
 
No comments? I think that the sheer wall-of-text factor might have scared people off.

I have some questions to throw out there, as it's going to determine the future of the TL:

1) With the Jurchen largely destroyed as a force (Nurhachi died fighting Kato, and tribal infighting is making a mess of things), then there will be no Manchu rise and no Qing empire. However, during this period Ligden Khan attempted to unify the Mongolian tribes. Though he's no Genghis, he may be able to pull off something similar to what Nurhachi did in OTL.

2) That said, a lot depends on how things progress for the Ming. The cost of this war (and particularly the construction of the great fleet) have cost far more than the OTL Imjin wars, which weren't cheap. More manpower has been expended than OTL as well, and parts of Liaodong province have been ruined. Silver inflation and climatic turmoil is going to cause problems for the Ming. And though the Qing are removed, there are a number of foreign candidates to take advantage of a weakened Ming (Mongols, Dzungars, Tibetans, Europeans), to say nothing of internal insurrection and peasant armies.

3) Korea, on the other hand, is better off than OTL despite better success. Instead of being brutalised by both sides as the main theater of battle, the Koreans temporarily lost territories that have since been restored to them as tributary states. The new Korean king (an able administrator deposed for petty factional reasons OTL) is using his power, and his Japanese vassals to break the factional infighting that always wracked Korean. The Korean body count and loss of agricultural land that it suffered in OTL is far less, and in general Korea is in a stronger position.

4) The Jesuits managed to keep their heads down and remain at large in Western Japan, while the edicts banning Christianity by a dying Hideyoshi are being enacted on a very, very hit-and-miss basis. Meanwhile, the Portugeuse and Spanish have begun trading with Korea through the southern Korean daimyo.

5) Japan, now without a central leader and with Kyoto in ruins, is at a crossroads. Will another unifier emerge? Or is it possible for things to deteriorate into an extended Sengoku period?
 
bah i wanted a Hideyoshi Japan-wank :(

It would be a mess of things, and just like every Asian nation Europeans tried to trade with, the europeans would try to invade
And most likely win
So the daimyos, if they don't get united, would be vulnerable to Spanish or Portuguese greed
 
I don't believe that an invasion would be successful, I'm afraid. The Ming just had too many men and resources to pull from. I tend to get the impression that if the Japanese had wanted to invade China, they should have tried about a generation later, while China struggled with nomad attacks, peasant rebellions, silver inflation and climatical problems.

Not sure which of the European powers would be in a position to invade, considering that Japan would still be highly well armed and technologically advanced. I'm expecting more Europeans to trade with the various clans, however, which may lead to conquest. But not just yet.
 
No comments? I think that the sheer wall-of-text factor might have scared people off.

I have some questions to throw out there, as it's going to determine the future of the TL:

1) With the Jurchen largely destroyed as a force (Nurhachi died fighting Kato, and tribal infighting is making a mess of things), then there will be no Manchu rise and no Qing empire. However, during this period Ligden Khan attempted to unify the Mongolian tribes. Though he's no Genghis, he may be able to pull off something similar to what Nurhachi did in OTL.

2) That said, a lot depends on how things progress for the Ming. The cost of this war (and particularly the construction of the great fleet) have cost far more than the OTL Imjin wars, which weren't cheap. More manpower has been expended than OTL as well, and parts of Liaodong province have been ruined. Silver inflation and climatic turmoil is going to cause problems for the Ming. And though the Qing are removed, there are a number of foreign candidates to take advantage of a weakened Ming (Mongols, Dzungars, Tibetans, Europeans), to say nothing of internal insurrection and peasant armies.

3) Korea, on the other hand, is better off than OTL despite better success. Instead of being brutalised by both sides as the main theater of battle, the Koreans temporarily lost territories that have since been restored to them as tributary states. The new Korean king (an able administrator deposed for petty factional reasons OTL) is using his power, and his Japanese vassals to break the factional infighting that always wracked Korean. The Korean body count and loss of agricultural land that it suffered in OTL is far less, and in general Korea is in a stronger position.

4) The Jesuits managed to keep their heads down and remain at large in Western Japan, while the edicts banning Christianity by a dying Hideyoshi are being enacted on a very, very hit-and-miss basis. Meanwhile, the Portugeuse and Spanish have begun trading with Korea through the southern Korean daimyo.

5) Japan, now without a central leader and with Kyoto in ruins, is at a crossroads. Will another unifier emerge? Or is it possible for things to deteriorate into an extended Sengoku period?

I don't believe that an invasion would be successful, I'm afraid. The Ming just had too many men and resources to pull from. I tend to get the impression that if the Japanese had wanted to invade China, they should have tried about a generation later, while China struggled with nomad attacks, peasant rebellions, silver inflation and climatical problems.

Not sure which of the European powers would be in a position to invade, considering that Japan would still be highly well armed and technologically advanced. I'm expecting more Europeans to trade with the various clans, however, which may lead to conquest. But not just yet.

From what I've seen, your timeline looks good so far.

Of course, I really can't speak from a completely unbiased viewpoint, but it seems that the Koreans play a much more reduced role in the war than it should have if it managed to build a navy with the purpose of invading Japan. Of course, the only thing that we know about OTL Yi Sun-Shin is that he defended his country to the fullest extent, which means that he was basically the sole Korean general who held off a much more numerous Japanese navy. In other words, if a combined Chinese-Korean navy invaded Japan, it's really hard to predict what kind of role Yi Sun-Shin would have had.

That said, however, I feel that once the Japan has completely surrendered, the most important issue is probably what happens in southern Korea. If one of the Japanese clans manages to still hold a firm grip on a significant amount about 2-5 years after Japan surrenders, then it might be able to eventually consolidate influence over Southern Korea, and therefore probably have a much greater influence in Japan than the other clans. This will in turn then have an impact on relations between the Japanese clans and the European traders/missionaries/diplomats/military.

However, if the influence in Korea dissipates, meaning that clans fight over control of the area and/or completely surrender to the Koreans, this means that Yi Sun-Shin would have played a key role in expelling the "barbarians," and therefore be a significant threat to the Korean Crown Prince. In other words, he will be caught in a quandary. He can't reduce the general's status, because the people will view him as a hero for restoring Joseon to a rough status quo, but at the same time, the prince will need to keep a watchful eye on him just to make sure that he won't pose as a significant problem to him within the next 3-20 years.

Good luck with future updates.
 
The years after the Ming-Joseon invasion of 1598 reflected the political inertia of the time. In Kyushu, the Christian daimyo Kuroda Yoshitaka defeated the powerful Shimazu clan (who had suffered major losses during the failed second invasion of Korea) and successfully dominated the area. Meanwhile, as the destruction of the Japanese invasion fleet and the chaos of the Siege of Kyoto wiped out many prominent generals and bureacrats of the Toyotomi clan such as Ukita Hideie and Ishida Mitsunari, a political vacuum formed. The most powerful survivor was Tokugawa Ieyasu, who had remained in Hideyoshi's Kyushu headquarters during the invasions of Korea and who had avoided confrontation with the Ming-Joseon army that ravaged Kyoto. He maintained vast holdings which he administered from his private headquarters in Edo. The second most powerful figure was Mori Terumoto, who became the protector of Hideyoshi's hier.

Tokugawa clashed and defeated the forces of the rebellious Uesugi Kagekatsu with the assistance of his ally Date Matsumoto, and it was in observing this that convinced Mori to make peace with Tokugawa. With the death of Maeda Toshiie, the last remaining regents of Hideyoshi's heir Hideyori were Mori and Tokugawa. Mori rightly suspected that Tokugawa wished to disinherit the boy, but was cautious of launching military action against him. Tokugawa for his part was alarmed by the successes on the battlefield made by his capricious ally Date Matsumoto. A balance of power was formed between Mori and Tokugawa, who became the two regents for the young Hideyori. Meanwhile the Emperor of Japan, having fled the Siege of Kyoto, remained in Osaka during the reconstruction of the imperial capital. For the time being, the Toyotomi administration was maintained.

Meanwhile, Korea saw the slow consolidaton of power by the new King Gwanghae, who would be known later in history by his posthumous name Cheonjo, and the suppression of political factions. He endeavored to restore the country and sponsored restoration of documents. As a part of reconstruction, he revised land ordinance and redistributed the land to people; he also ordered rebuilding of Changdeok Palace along with several other palaces. He was also responsible for the reintroduction of the hopae identification system after a long period of disuse, which has been identified by later historians as a method of establishing firmer control over the daimyo domains to the south. By incorporating the daimyo who had taken large holdings in southern Korea into the formal political structure, the King was thus able to create a powerful new faction known by some as the Greater Southern faction and by their enemies as the Waegu (named after the Japanese pirates of previous years).

To further protect his personal power, as well as provide protection for Joseon in the future from foreign threats, Cheonjo initiated a number of military reforms. A more decentralised military structure was instituted, giving local commanders the ability to respond effectively to threats. Military training centres were built in every province of the country, to train a regular standing army. A significant portion of the army was comprised of those Japanese exiles and lordless samurai who had fled from Hideyoshi's Edicts to the Zenra and Keiyoshi territories in the 1590's, which allowed Cheonho to institutionalise a potential source of instability as well as enhancing national power. The style of Korean fortresses were modified to the style of Japanese castles. Korean firearms were upgraded to the arquebus, some purchased from the Portugeuse and others developed independantly using Japanese examples as models; while other troops were armed and trained with advanced composite bows able to fire up to 500 metres.

The military, along with the southern daimyo and the northern faction, served to secure Cheonjo's political domination, despite repeated attempts to destabilize his regime by his political enemies. Cheonjo slowly increased the political status of loyal generals and aristocrats, beginning with the naval hero Yi Sunshin. It was viewed as a national priority to maintain both a regular army and navy, both to defend against external threats as well as internal dissension.

Cheonjo sent the monk Samyeongdang to Japan as his emissary, and a formal treaty was signed with the Toyotomi administration. Cheonjo was to send regular emissaries to Japan throughout his reign, in order to keep a close eye on the developing political situation there. This was to be merely the first of a number of diplomatic missions during Cheonjo's reign, to China, Mongolia and later as far as the Americas and Europe. Cheonjo took a benevolently neglectful view of the Portugeuse traders and Jesuits now operating in the southern regions of his country, and later in his reign was to welcome Jesuit advisors to his court.
 

elkarlo

Banned
I always wondered about this. Why didn't the Japanese buy some boats from the Span/Port? They clearly had no idea how to fight naval battles on any level.
 
I always wondered about this. Why didn't the Japanese buy some boats from the Span/Port? They clearly had no idea how to fight naval battles on any level.

Hideyoshi tried to hire some Portugeuse galleons before the Imjin war but it never happened, the Jesuit leader in Japan said he could arrange it but he was talking out of his arse. Later there were Spaniards in Japan who were helping the Japanese with ship-building, but the Spanish colonial authorities looked askance at this. None of the Europeans wanted the competition.

That said, there were some in Japan who knew their way around boats, and there are historical records of iron-clad ships being used in Japan before the Imjin War, but Hideyoshi didn't realise the power of the Korean navy.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Hideyoshi tried to hire some Portugeuse galleons before the Imjin war but it never happened, the Jesuit leader in Japan said he could arrange it but he was talking out of his arse. Later there were Spaniards in Japan who were helping the Japanese with ship-building, but the Spanish colonial authorities looked askance at this. None of the Europeans wanted the competition.

That said, there were some in Japan who knew their way around boats, and there are historical records of iron-clad ships being used in Japan before the Imjin War, but Hideyoshi didn't realise the power of the Korean navy.


I read that too about the Jesuits. I'm not sure how much old Hide tried. If he really wanted know how he could have offered money, and as we know the Eeus had a lot of merc behavior.

It just seems short sighted, then again invading China is super silly for the late 1500's. Even with the help of Korea, Port and Spain, the Japanese still couldn't have beaten the Chinese.

Also it seems like East Asian cultures are good at forgetting tech. I read a long time ago that the Chinese invented a clock (pendilum?) and then promtly forgot it, the Port rolled in and the Chinese were impressed by the very same clock.
 
Also it seems like East Asian cultures are good at forgetting tech. I read a long time ago that the Chinese invented a clock (pendilum?) and then promtly forgot it, the Port rolled in and the Chinese were impressed by the very same clock.

It's not that East Asian technicians were amnesiac, but the culture did frown upon them, being just higher in societal status than merchants. They tend to keep the real skills to themselves and not teach the apprentices about the core "tricks" unless they are the sons or the really intimate ones. Plus they were often illiterate and thusly unable to record. Once the master died off without teaching their stuffs or there were major catastrophes - great social unrest, major wars like the Mongol invasion and the Qing invasion, the decimation would mean many skills had to be re-discovered again and again, some of them never came back.

With regards to Ligdan Khan, IOTL he converted from Geluk to Nyingma, provoking quite some unrest and distrust from the nobles which undermined his rule, otherwise the Mongols were at least at a privileged position in the Manchu-Ming-Mongol triangle before the Battle of Sarhu. But OTOH this was powered by Ming's need to beat back Later Jin, which required Ming to ask help from the Mongols by opening up trade and substantial tributes. So, hmm, maybe he would need some impressive victories in raids against Ming or "Manchurian" tribes to forge a sense of superiority in the nobles' mind.

The Little Ice Age had been creating massive havoc in Ming for decades. So like OTL, internal resurrection, in forms of "beggar hordes", would be very strong, if not indirectly helping any foreign armies. They built two short-lived polities before the Manchus came. For the last victors in China proper, they would experience a period of "prosperity" or recovery that would cement their rule due to the receding LIA.
 
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