Spanish Commonwealth

With a PoD before 1900s, make the Spanish colonial possessions in 2010 akin to Britain's Commonwealth. That means make all former Spanish colonial possessions develop closer ties to Spain the coming years.
 
All Spanish below is courtesy of Babelfish. I'm gonna apologise ahead of time to any native Spanish speakers.

With a PoD before 1900s, make the Spanish colonial possessions in 2010 akin to Britain's Commonwealth. That means make all former Spanish colonial possessions develop closer ties to Spain the coming years.

Britain was able to peacefully dissolve its Empire (mostly) because of how strong it was. So, Spain would have to be a strong power herself.

First, have it decisively win the Chincha Islands War of 1864-66, re-gaining control of Chile and Peru in the process and stamping out any hope of rebellion. This serves as a tremendous boost to national confidence at home and begins an upwards trend in Spain, a Segunda Época Dorada de la Ascensión de la España. It also leads to the various South American nations (other than Brazil and the Guyanas) developing closer ties with Spain in order to prevent another war to regain prominance being waged against them.

Continue with Isabel II (suddenly an extremely popular Queen) doing just about anything it takes to modernize Spain's army, navy, and industry rapidly while simultaneously avoiding fights with nations above its hit range for the moment, thereby having no Spanish Revolution in 1868. In fact, have her regin until her OTL death in 1904, giving Spain a strong, stable monarch. Additionally, have Spain make sure that its navy never threatens Britain's two-power standard - yet. Contrive to have her compare her reign to that of Queen Victoria on occasion. Make her and Victoria good friends.

Speaking of which, have Spain modernize its government earlier and with less fuss towards a true, British-style constitutuonal monarchy.

Have Isabel II engineer a war between France and Britain in the 1870s. Perhaps she convinces Britain to enter the Franco-Prussian War on Prussia's side; regardless, France needs to make a slightly stronger showing of itself, enough to weaken Britain, if only a little. Spain intervenes as late as it can on the side of the British and Prussians, and deploys ground forces into France herself. Have those forces do well, and thereby make the various powers of Europe take Spain seriously again.

Have Spain make concessions in Cuba that allow for Cuba to be literally treated as just another province of Spain (as many in Spain viewed Cuba), rather than a colonial holding. Shower them with gifts and love and make the Cubans want to remain Spanish.

When the Spanish-American War starts, Spain has a modernized its fleet to be the equal of America's, and a modernized, well-equipped and well-trained army backed by a modern industrial national economy. The Spanish-American War lasts longer than America thought (there is nothing splendid nor little about this war to the Americans); say it lasts from 1898-1901, and ends with an American defeat.

Lastly, contrive a way for a Spanish monarch to become monarch of Portugal without war, and thereby gain control of all of Portugal and her colonies.

Beginning in the early 1900s, have Spain begin enlargening its fleet now in responce to Germany's expansion of her high seas fleet. Spain, however, declares itself to be a loyal and true friend of Britain and enemy of Germany. The British and the Spanish begin working together to coordinate naval movements against Triple Alliance, should war break out. Together with Britain, the two form a sort of third power block outside the Alliance or the Entante: La Liga de las Dos Coronas, the League of the Two Crowns, laid out with the Treaty of Lisbon in 1909. As opposed to the smi-secret treaties of the Entante or the Alliance, the provisos of the League are entirely public.

When World War I begins, Spain is a great power and a modern nation with a strong navy and army behind it, and the support of Spain from the start of 1914 leads to a more rapid German defeat in 1917 that requires no American intervention (and the Americans aren't to keen on helping out the Spanish anyway). The presence of Spain in the war also makes Italy declare war on Germany earlier due to Spanish pressure, as the Spanish wish to open an Alpine front. When the front does open, Italian and Spanish troops work together against Austria-Hungary and Germany.

Germany throughout the years leading up to the war has attempted to get SPain to become a part of Alliance (Quadruple Alliance? Doesn't have the same ring), and attempted to make the French hate the Spanish due to the Spain's involvement in the Franco-Prussian War. While France is suspicious of Spain, however, it welcomes all the help it can get against Germany.

Anyway, that's as far as I can go, but this is how I see the Spanish Empire in 1914 under the most optimal of conditions. What it might manage to gain post Versailles Treaty, who knows?

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Boo. I put a lot of work into that. Well, 15 minutes, anyway, plus another 10 for the map.

No one has any ideas for 1917 onwards?
 
My only question is, in the Spanish winning the Chincha Wars as you said, wouldn't the US get their knickers in a knot much earlier than the S-A War in OTL?

Possibly, but there's not too much they can realistically do about it OTL, being too occupied at first with Reconstruction in the south, and then later the Spanish are too entrenched in South America.

Perhaps with Britain as a good ally of Spain, America didn't feel eager to take on Spain for their actions half a world away quite yet. Though 1898 may have been an attempt on America's part to try and portray itself as an alternative to Spanish domination to the rest of the Americas.

It's entirely possible the Spanish and the Americans might have come to blows sooner, though for the sake of preserving the Spanish-American War (I like the symbolism involved in that war too much), the conflict would have had to of ended up being resolved with status quo ante bellum.

Maybe a crisis in Cuba in the mid-1880s?
 
I would think you would have to start very, very early. As in, during the 16th or 17th century before the silver inflation has completely ruined the Spanish economy. Also, some imperial contraction might be useful - giving up Mexico and/or the Philippines, as distant territories with relatively limited value to the overall empire. Impose governmental control on the amount of silver mined, and ensure a steady supply that doesn't imbalance the global economy. Furthermore, curtailing of the colonial industry might just be enough to avoid the issues of oppression that made throwing off Spanish rule desirable in the first place.

However, an ultimately far more useful approach might be to have Spain handle the Napoleonic wars very differently. In OTL, the fall of Spain convinced the Peninsular and Criollo populations of the colonies that the homeland was too weak and too far away to effectively curtail a rebellion, leading them to take matters into their own hands and seek to rule their own independent nations. The replacement of the Spanish royal family by Joseph Bonaparte's client state further weakened the legitimacy of the Spanish claim to governance of the colonies. Perhaps if the Spanish royal house pulls a Braganza and relocates to Caracas or Buenos Aires, these upper-crust members will reconsider their loyalty to the crown. With the connection between Spain and the colonies reinforced thusly, and the Spanish government convinced of its inability to defend both Spain and the colonies, you could see a more reciprocal independence process that leads to the commonwealth desired by the OP.
 
Also, in regards to your map, I'd believe that a more militant Spain in the mid 19th Century would definitely be more adventurous in Africa, particularly against Morocco. I can see Spain etablishing a protectorate there before the French do.

I read up on the war you mentioned, and it seems Isabella II was very interested in colonialism, with ventures in Indochina as well as other places. It's entirely possible that all of this is more successful too. The balance of power here is going to shift drastically and may upset what we know as WWI completely.

With Spain to her west, there may not even be a Franco-Prussian War. Also, if there is and if Britain gets involved on Prussia's side, expect this alliance to last - if Britain and Germany come to some kind of agreement, I doubt France is going to be much of a player later on.

Regardless of any of this, I doubt *WWI* will be anything like we saw it iOTL.
 
Also, in regards to your map, I'd believe that a more militant Spain in the mid 19th Century would definitely be more adventurous in Africa, particularly against Morocco. I can see Spain etablishing a protectorate there before the French do.

Hmm.

I read up on the war you mentioned, and it seems Isabella II was very interested in colonialism, with ventures in Indochina as well as other places. It's entirely possible that all of this is more successful too. The balance of power here is going to shift drastically and may upset what we know as WWI completely.

Well, almost certainly. I was trying to keep a fairly entrenched timeline, however.

With Spain to her west, there may not even be a Franco-Prussian War.

I'd say only if Napoleon III thinks Spain will enter the war. If he thinks Spain won't, it'd probably still happen.

Also, if there is and if Britain gets involved on Prussia's side, expect this alliance to last - if Britain and Germany come to some kind of agreement, I doubt France is going to be much of a player later on.

I can't see a British-German alliance lasting, however, despite Wilhelm II being the grandson of Victoria. Germany was just too eager to challenge Britain on the high seas.

Also, British policy on the continent was always to try and prevent a single nation from dominating it, which nearly spelled her ruin during the Napoleonic Wars. Germany, meanwhile, is trying too hard to actually do just that, for Britain and Germany to remain allies.

Regardless of any of this, I doubt *WWI* will be anything like we saw it iOTL.

Hmm...gonna have to think on this.
 
See, that's a great way to keep Spain in power, but I think it's more fun for El Segundo Imperio de la España to rise in the 1800s.

While it may be more fun, I just don't see second-rate-power Spain as it stood in the 1800s having the capacity to reassert itself on a global scale, especially in the face of the British naval domination of the world. Even if the Franco-Prussian war can weaken British involvement in the Continent, the Royal Navy has near-impunity and can assert control over the sea lanes and separate Spain from its colonies with relative ease. By the 1900s you'll also have the Americans growing fast, and they're going to want to make inroads into Latin America, motivated by the Monroe Doctrine and the potential wealth to be had. And if Spain gets into an arms, tech, and money race with the United States, I can't see it going well for them.

Edit: I also have issues with the idea of the Spanish successfully reasserting control over large portions of South America in the long term following the Chincha Islands War. Resentment will build up, and eventually the Spaniards will be faced with a second Bolivar situation, as ruling classes now stripped of sovereign ruling power seek to amend for this loss.
 
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I actually made a map a while ago exploring this idea, with the POD of the royal family relocating to the Americas during the Napoleonic Wars. I don't think it would quell the growing sentiment towards independence, but it certainly made achieving that a lot more peaceful, with a much more balanced Latin America (i.e. not USA-dominated).

Brownish outlining indicates the Spanish Economic Union, a commonwealth with many of the same attributes as the EU. You can mostly ignore the Francowanking - in my original idea I had the wars not ending quite so decisively.

ECS Spainwank Post-Napoleon.png
 
While it may be more fun, I just don't see second-rate-power Spain as it stood in the 1800s having the capacity to reassert itself on a global scale,

I'll see your doubts and raise you Japan, which started even further behind than Spain and moved forward by leaps and bounds.

especially in the face of the British naval domination of the world. Even if the Franco-Prussian war can weaken British involvement in the Continent, the Royal Navy has near-impunity and can assert control over the sea lanes and separate Spain from its colonies with relative ease.

But why would it if Spain gives Britain a reason to? The way I'm seeing this, Britain remains top dog and Spain isn't trying to dislodge them from that position, but rather, trying to remain good friends with them at the moment. It's content to play second fiddle in Britain's band.

If Spain maintained careful control over its naval assets and expansions, the British two-power standard wouldn't be threatened and so Britain would have no real cause to do anything to Spain.

By the 1900s you'll also have the Americans growing fast, and they're going to want to make inroads into Latin America, motivated by the Monroe Doctrine and the potential wealth to be had. And if Spain gets into an arms, tech, and money race with the United States, I can't see it going well for them.

I can, if Spain can react fast enough.

Edit: I also have issues with the idea of the Spanish successfully reasserting control over large portions of South America in the long term following the Chincha Islands War. Resentment will build up, and eventually the Spaniards will be faced with a second Bolivar situation, as ruling classes now stripped of sovereign ruling power seek to amend for this loss.

I only see Peru and Chile, and there's various techniques Spain could use to keep control of the colonies without resorting to ongoing violence. Besides, Spain doesn't need to control the colonies forever - just long enough to form the Spanish Commonwealth of Nations.
 
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