Spanish civil war:The Nationalists lose

Blair Witch I am getting a little bit sick and tired and your sweeping statements like "morale was in the shitters", the "LW chopped them up badly" and so on.

Your statement that morale was in the shiters, flies in the face of all the evidence obtained from interviews of individual soldiers and reports from the field dated from mid June 1940. Morale was actually rather high in the French Army during June 1940 and the bulk of the soldiers and officers on the field wished only to fight on against the Germans.

The Luftwaffe was in poor shape in mid June 1940, most units were still based in the Benelux and nothermost France. Rebasing them north of the Seine and in places like Normandy would have taken at least two weeks if not more. At the same time, aircrafts factories in Toulouse and Bordeaux where still churning out D520 and Bloch MB155 and production was on the increase. Air units in southern France could also still rely on hundreds of planes of various types and unlike the Germans there was no need to rebase them. Enough to gain supremacy of the air? No but this would have been enough to contest it.

At the start of Fall Rot, the panzers starting positions were above the Somme river alongside all their fuel depots and supply dumps. In mid June the panzers were therefore 200kms away from their starting positions and running out of fuel. Resupplying took place, but only by air with the help of Ju52 planes. There is plenty of evidence about this in the German archives proving this fact by the way.



Yugoslavia was completely encircled by hostile powers from the start and made several mistakes in its forces deployment, namely to cover the borders instead of defensive lines in the interior. As it was you can even make the argument that the Yugoslav campaign was a botched job, considering the speed and the ease at which partisans groups organised themselves throughout large areas of the country mere months after the invasion.

There is no way on Earth Spain will fall in six weeks. Frankly, considering the terrain and the infrastructure that's simply not possible, real war is not Hearts of Iron II style war. You might say that the political division of the country would help the invader, but I don't think its a given. Spaniards have a long track record of uniting themselves despite their divisions against whoever invades their country. Dr Strangelove can confirm or infirm this.


My comment on morale wasn't about squads and platoons; it was the army as a hole, and this is born out by the very high levels of POW's the Germans took; it was not the battle of the frontiers or Verdun where French command and the troops themselves where willing to die en masse rather than surrender; Rommel's division alone took 100k prisoners; and the Germans captured 1.5 million frenchmen before the political towel was thrown in; they where just done; even if the panzers have to pause for 10ish days for restocking etc after overrunning far western france and encircling the maginot line they will still be well positioned to drive on Toulon and Marsailles even without Italian pressure and complete the campaign

I said the Germans could operate 300 miles from a railhead which was true, but not that they could do it all at once; they would have to stop halfway, pause, regroup bring up supplies then bound forward again; Spain would have to committ their field army to the border as well because once they germans are past it, there is simply too much front for Spain to defend and the Germans will go around them for indirect advances to the rear; and with their mega deficiencies in artillery of all kinds and numerical inferiority, it would be a game quickly lost
 
Is there a possibility of a Leftist civil war in Spain following a Republican victory?

And, assuming Hitler did invade, would he have the support of Portugal? And, assuming he did win, would he then break up Spain into several puppets- perhaps, a Castilian state, a Basque/Galician state, an Andalucian state, and a Catalan state? And what would be the repercussions of this following the end of WW2? Do the states reform the republic, with renewed sense of unity, do they form a union with strong separatism and suffer a Yugoslav-style breakdown later on, or do they stay independent of each other?
 
My comment on morale wasn't about squads and platoons; it was the army as a hole, and this is born out by the very high levels of POW's the Germans took; it was not the battle of the frontiers or Verdun where French command and the troops themselves where willing to die en masse rather than surrender; Rommel's division alone took 100k prisoners; and the Germans captured 1.5 million frenchmen before the political towel was thrown in; they where just done; even if the panzers have to pause for 10ish days for restocking etc after overrunning far western france and encircling the maginot line they will still be well positioned to drive on Toulon and Marsailles even without Italian pressure and complete the campaign.

Most of the two million prisoners captured were captured in the period betwen the 17th and the 24th of June Blair Witch. That's not to say that hundreds of thousands of prisoners were not made beforehand obviously. The Army units in the Vosges and on the Maginot Line were trapped without any chance of retreat, but they could have put up some good resistance. Some Maginot Line fortresses could easily have held until late July and early August, falling only when food and ammunition would run low. Strategically this is meaningless we will agree on that, but its still a grain of sand clogging the mechanism.

The army was without real orders from the 17th of June onwards, so it is natural that over a million prisoners were made. With proper orders and instructions, they could have delayed the Wehrmacht for a while. Before Bordeaux there is the Dordogne, whose bridges can be destroyed and mined. Before Marseille there is the Rhone valley, where places like Valence and Avignon can be turned into fortresses.
Don't underestimate the Loire valley as an obsctacle, OTL the Panzers where stopped for three days over a 40km front by the Saumur cadets and other ad-hoc units with little equipment but plenty of motivation.

With regards to Toulon and Marseilles, the places are protected by hills and mountains and naval gunfire support might be an option to a degree. All the units with equipment will retreat there too and the smaller the front become, the smaller the impact of numerical superiority. Well placed AT guns on hil crests and hillsides can ravage a tank column.

The Italian Army is a non issue, it only managed to conquer a third of Menton during two weeks of campaigning. With more time it won't achieve a lot more, save for losing a couple extra thousand soldiers and the equipment. The Italian air force is a non issue as well.
 
I said the Germans could operate 300 miles from a railhead which was true, but not that they could do it all at once; they would have to stop halfway, pause, regroup bring up supplies then bound forward again; Spain would have to committ their field army to the border as well because once they germans are past it, there is simply too much front for Spain to defend and the Germans will go around them for indirect advances to the rear; and with their mega deficiencies in artillery of all kinds and numerical inferiority, it would be a game quickly lost

You seem to be under the belief that Spain's topography is similar to France's, or that the Pyrenees are a few hills. The only place where the germans could do that is the central plain. The entire french border is a fucking mountain range that reaches 3000 m only a few kilometres from the coast. It's not that the spaniards don't need to put their whole army protecting the border, it's that they wouldn't be able to do so because there are only a few passes to guard, and there would be plenty of people to be left in reserve. If the germans were able to destroy the French Army in a few weeks, it was because the geography of northern france allowed them to pick their battles and axis of advance. Spanish geography would force them through a few choke points. The initial offensive would consist on them running headlong against spanish defenses uphill because there would literally be no other way around.

As I said, the yugoslavian comparison makes no sense because most Yugoslavian population centers are too near the border and Yugoslavia could not be resupplied by the allies. Greece was a half-assed effort by the allies and you forget that the bulk of the greek army was deployed away from the german main axis of advance, not to mention that continental greece is much smaller than Spain. Your claims wrt german logistics still don't explain how they would manage to refuel the panzer divisions relying in only a few rail connections that would have to change trains at the border due the different rail gauges.
 

Goldstein

Banned
The Autonomous status of Catalonia and the Basque Country would be kept, and more statutes would be done (Galicia, Andalusia, and Aragon were working on it) but the OTL situation in which all of Spain ejoys autonomical status is unlikely, it was a slow process made with reluctance. As for independence, I don't think so. The Republic was against that position, Esquerra Republicana had a Federalist approach back then, the Basque Nationalist Party was relying on a non-belligerance with the Republic, and there would be less reasons for Nationalism to radicalize without the Francoist backlash.

In short, I guess a surviving Spanish Republic would become an asymmetrical state of sorts.

Forget what I said. I've been searching on the subject and apparently even a statute for Castille was being prepared.

Anyway. I'm very interested, more than in the outcome, in the how. Would a Republican vitcory take greater Western involvement? If so, how could that be made, considering how determined the British politicians were to sink us into misery?
 
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Most of the two million prisoners captured were captured in the period betwen the 17th and the 24th of June Blair Witch. That's not to say that hundreds of thousands of prisoners were not made beforehand obviously. The Army units in the Vosges and on the Maginot Line were trapped without any chance of retreat, but they could have put up some good resistance. Some Maginot Line fortresses could easily have held until late July and early August, falling only when food and ammunition would run low. Strategically this is meaningless we will agree on that, but its still a grain of sand clogging the mechanism.

The army was without real orders from the 17th of June onwards, so it is natural that over a million prisoners were made. With proper orders and instructions, they could have delayed the Wehrmacht for a while. Before Bordeaux there is the Dordogne, whose bridges can be destroyed and mined. Before Marseille there is the Rhone valley, where places like Valence and Avignon can be turned into fortresses.
Don't underestimate the Loire valley as an obsctacle, OTL the Panzers where stopped for three days over a 40km front by the Saumur cadets and other ad-hoc units with little equipment but plenty of motivation.

With regards to Toulon and Marseilles, the places are protected by hills and mountains and naval gunfire support might be an option to a degree. All the units with equipment will retreat there too and the smaller the front become, the smaller the impact of numerical superiority. Well placed AT guns on hil crests and hillsides can ravage a tank column.

The Italian Army is a non issue, it only managed to conquer a third of Menton during two weeks of campaigning. With more time it won't achieve a lot more, save for losing a couple extra thousand soldiers and the equipment. The Italian air force is a non issue as well.


The total German pow count was only 1.9ish million (including Britons, Dutch, Belgians etc) so I can't see how they took 2 million during the political clusterfuck (Keagan's totals); the army was so understrength and disorganized that even iron political will is of fairly low value (especially once Guderian pinches off the maginot line and the vosages; and they can be starved out if more campaigning is to be done by having Guderians forces replaced with line infantry)

The army standing and fighting was just to see it consumed; they were just horribly outnumbered and outgunned on an escalating scale as time went on and the Germans occupied more of their national territory the rhone valley is wide enough that the Germans could use their superior numbers and mobility for indirect advances to the rear plus hoth's forces where looping the long way around from the west; the allies in 1944 had little problem blitzing through the Rhone Valley (its fairly wide at a number of points)

The Italian army doesn't have to do anything except pin the alpine fortress troops in place and prevent them from peeling off to engage the Germans

if the Germans where able to cross the defended meuse and somme with little difficulty, i don't see how rivers farther west which would be less defended would be any more challanging when their numerical superiority has increased since the start of the campaign

Cherbourg was fortified too; as was calais; all the same the Germans took the cities within a fairly short period of time after enveloping them
 
You seem to be under the belief that Spain's topography is similar to France's, or that the Pyrenees are a few hills. The only place where the germans could do that is the central plain. The entire french border is a fucking mountain range that reaches 3000 m only a few kilometres from the coast. It's not that the spaniards don't need to put their whole army protecting the border, it's that they wouldn't be able to do so because there are only a few passes to guard, and there would be plenty of people to be left in reserve. If the germans were able to destroy the French Army in a few weeks, it was because the geography of northern france allowed them to pick their battles and axis of advance. Spanish geography would force them through a few choke points. The initial offensive would consist on them running headlong against spanish defenses uphill because there would literally be no other way around.

As I said, the yugoslavian comparison makes no sense because most Yugoslavian population centers are too near the border and Yugoslavia could not be resupplied by the allies. Greece was a half-assed effort by the allies and you forget that the bulk of the greek army was deployed away from the german main axis of advance, not to mention that continental greece is much smaller than Spain. Your claims wrt german logistics still don't explain how they would manage to refuel the panzer divisions relying in only a few rail connections that would have to change trains at the border due the different rail gauges.


The battle would be won at the border due to the chokepoint, I have no disagreement, but once past it; its over when the front expands the Germans bring their superior force to space ratio and maneuverability to bear

If you want to say spain would be as difficult as Greece and Yugoslavia combined that's fine; the Germans took both places in 30 days with a force smaller than what I was suggesting here

The Greek army was mobilized and combat experienced and had 50k combat experienced British troops backing her; honestly how many men can Britain put into the country before the Germans regroup for an assault in the post dunkirk mindset and reality 40-60k seems fairly optimistic even if it was a hundred thousand that would equate to perhaps 6 divisions who would likely have little or no organic armor and little artillery

Once the Germans break through into the Basque country they would try to encircle and capture Bilboa (or whatever the proper spelling is) so they could introduce coastal convoys under fighter cover; ditto Barcelona as their forces branch out to that direction to lighten the burden on their supply echelons; the regia marina may want a piece of the action or try to assist in the capture of Barcelona
 
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