Spanish Civil War results in a divided Spain, like Korea or Germany

Say in 1937 the war grinds to a halt and a sort of uneasy peace is established between the Republic and the Nationalist state, each remaining independent.

Would Nationalist Spain invade the Republic during WWII (or failing that, would Germany?)

Would they enter into opposite camps during the Cold War? (The republic was a liberal democracy, but fell further and further under Soviet influence as the war wound on).

These are the borders I'm thinking of more or less;

Map_of_the_Spanish_Civil_War_in_October_1937.png
 
IOTL Franco wanted fuck-all to do with WWII, but an Allied Spain next door may force his hand. Furthermore, an Allied Spain may be a target for Hitler, and if Hitler gets greedy, he may decide just to take the whole damn peninsula. If that's the case, count on Spain being reunified after the war and Franco being remembered very differently, either as the asshole who collaborated or an unlikely hero who did what he could to resist.
 
One must also pay attention to which one of the two successors holds dominion over Spain's African territories: after all, if WWII continues as OTL, both the Allies and Germans will desire beachheads on the coast to station troops and to ensure safe passage.
 
IOTL Franco wanted fuck-all to do with WWII, but an Allied Spain next door may force his hand. Furthermore, an Allied Spain may be a target for Hitler, and if Hitler gets greedy, he may decide just to take the whole damn peninsula. If that's the case, count on Spain being reunified after the war and Franco being remembered very differently, either as the asshole who collaborated or an unlikely hero who did what he could to resist.
Alternatively, if Franco allies with Hitler, that obviates the need for Operation Overlord--Nationalist Spain's coastal defenses will no doubt be easier to crack than Festung Europa, even if they should manage to take Gibraltar (an unlikely prospect given the fact that they'd have to contend with both the Royal and US Navies to do so).
 
One must also pay attention to which one of the two successors holds dominion over Spain's African territories: after all, if WWII continues as OTL, both the Allies and Germans will desire beachheads on the coast to station troops and to ensure safe passage.

Would almost certainly be the Nationals. Since Morocco was among the first territories captured in the rebellion and they held it firmly through the whole war.
 
IOTL Franco wanted fuck-all to do with WWII, but an Allied Spain next door may force his hand. Furthermore, an Allied Spain may be a target for Hitler, and if Hitler gets greedy, he may decide just to take the whole damn peninsula. If that's the case, count on Spain being reunified after the war and Franco being remembered very differently, either as the asshole who collaborated or an unlikely hero who did what he could to resist.

If Franco were to collaborate, I think it would have been very grudgingly. He and Hitler didn't much like each other personally and Franco's state wasn't really fascist; Assuming Nazi occupiers kept the Franco regime in power (I think it's just as likely they'd depose him and replace him with Falangist ideologues) his government would probably be as obstructive and obtuse as possible.
 
Thanks a lot, @Stenz. I've been quite busy lateley and I have missed this thread. And thanks for the undeserved praise.

To achieve the goal to achieve the split up of Spain in two we need something: to get rid of Franco. He was not the kind of man willing to have a negotiated peace with the enemy. He was to crush utterley the enemy. Even more, I don't think that, by 1936, there was anybody in the Nationalist side willing to get a negotiated peace with the enemy. It was them or us, so to speak. And in the Republican side more or less the same, summing up.

However, let's supose that, by some kind of POD, the war ends in 1937 with this divided Spain.

Would Hitler, after defeating France in 1940, would care about Republican Spain? Would he feel threatened about the existence of the country. Would he react towards the Republic in the same way he reacted after the coup d'etat in Belgrade changed the ballance in the Balkans?

One would say yes. Plus the added benefit of attacking Gibraltar and, perhaps, closing up the Mediterranean Sea for Allied shipping.

How would Franco (or whoever is in charge) react to this situation? Perhaps he (whoever) would feel his hand forced and joined the war. That would add some troubles to Hitler, as the Atlantic Wall would now to be extended until Galicia. He would have the Northern habours of Spain to be used as Uboat bases, and that may create a quite different Battle of the Atlantic.
 

Deleted member 94680

Thanks a lot, @Stenz. I've been quite busy lateley and I have missed this thread. And thanks for the undeserved praise.

I really don't think it's undeserved praise, but you're welcome nonetheless.

To achieve the goal to achieve the split up of Spain in two we need something: to get rid of Franco. He was not the kind of man willing to have a negotiated peace with the enemy. He was to crush utterley the enemy. Even more, I don't think that, by 1936, there was anybody in the Nationalist side willing to get a negotiated peace with the enemy. It was them or us, so to speak. And in the Republican side more or less the same, summing up.

However, let's supose that, by some kind of POD, the war ends in 1937 with this divided Spain.

Would Hitler, after defeating France in 1940, would care about Republican Spain? Would he feel threatened about the existence of the country. Would he react towards the Republic in the same way he reacted after the coup d'etat in Belgrade changed the ballance in the Balkans?

One would say yes. Plus the added benefit of attacking Gibraltar and, perhaps, closing up the Mediterranean Sea for Allied shipping.

How would Franco (or whoever is in charge) react to this situation? Perhaps he (whoever) would feel his hand forced and joined the war. That would add some troubles to Hitler, as the Atlantic Wall would now to be extended until Galicia. He would have the Northern habours of Spain to be used as Uboat bases, and that may create a quite different Battle of the Atlantic.

Quite the strategic conundrum. Gain the benefit of more U-boot bases for the weakness of a longer Atlantic Wall, or fortify the French border and leave Spain to its own devices?

Would the reality of needing to defend from Vigo to Vadsø give them pause? Or would it only dawn after an invasion - bearing in mind the subjugation of Britain was already planned?
 

Deleted member 94680

Where does this fit in the nazi timeline then? Replacing Norway? Post France and pre Russia? Or some form of secondary campaign alongside one of the main thrusts?

Or does it's priority depend on whether the Spanish Nationalists are part of the Axis or neutral?
 
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