Spanish Civil War other way round...

Kaze

Banned
What if the Nationalists were defeated in the Spanish Civil War? What kind of government would they have under the Republicans? Would the Nazis think twice about starting World War Two - like waiting for two years to make sure their army was ready (there are some radical historians that suggest that if Hitler waited to invade Poland for 1-2 years, he might be far more successful)? How would this look from the viewpoint of the spread of Socialism?
 
What if the Nationalists were defeated in the Spanish Civil War?

In a long war of attrition or a decisive victory? Perhaps the Nationalists don't receive as much foreign help as in OTL?

What kind of government would they have under the Republicans?

I think it depends on how bloody the thing was and how long it lasted.
Protracted conflicts tend to bring out both the worst and the best in people and this could mean vengeful maximalism or reconciliation.

Would the Nazis think twice about starting World War Two - like waiting for two years to make sure their army was ready (there are some radical historians that suggest that if Hitler waited to invade Poland for 1-2 years, he might be far more successful)?

As I understand, time was not on their side. The Soviets would have been better prepared and Germany broke.
 
I don’t think the Germans would attack Spain through the Pyrenees. If they stayed neutral during WW2, later in the war in 43/44 they might help the allies and let the allies base aircraft in Spain which would be useful for the landing in southern France.
 
1: What if the Nationalists were defeated in the Spanish Civil War?
2: What kind of government would they have under the Republicans?
3: Would the Nazis think twice about starting World War Two - like waiting for two years to make sure their army was ready (there are some radical historians that suggest that if Hitler waited to invade Poland for 1-2 years, he might be far more successful)?
4: How would this look from the viewpoint of the spread of Socialism?

1: Under what circumstances? A Civil War just as long at OTL only ending in a republican victory? Does the government receive a tip off about the early nationlist conspiracies and avert the whole thing apart from a few armed clashes in 1936?
2: Depends on the answer to question 1. The longer the war goes on for, the more Stalinist dominated the government becomes/
3: Difficult to say. Maybe a more thorough analysis of lessons learned from the defeat in Spain could lead to major organisational changes
e.g. more of a focus on logistics
4: Now the tricky part. Germany signed the Nazi-Soviet Pact despite sponsoring fighting against socialism in Spain.
If it goes ahead ITTL, which is certainly possible, Spain will see itself as vulnerable and try to defend itself, perhaps by proxy in
the form of "Volunteers" serving with the French Foreign Legion.

I can see Germany crushing Socialist Spain as a warmup to Barbarossa. How this affects their ability to assist the Italians in Greece and North Africa is another matter entirely.
Perhaps they can spin the action in Spain as a means of securing western coast of North Africa.
 
If the rebellion is somehow put down by Casares Quiroga, you can expect some kind of retaliation against the right wing parties and some kind of strengthened Popular Front. If the defeat takes place before 1938 (Being generous), you can expect a kind of heavy Leftish government. In both cases, Spain would be neutral in WW2, but not to Germany favour. And in the second case, you can imagine what would be Hitler reaction to a "Red" Spain.
 
If the rebellion is somehow put down by Casares Quiroga, you can expect some kind of retaliation against the right wing parties and some kind of strengthened Popular Front. If the defeat takes place before 1938 (Being generous), you can expect a kind of heavy Leftish government. In both cases, Spain would be neutral in WW2, but not to Germany favour. And in the second case, you can imagine what would be Hitler reaction to a "Red" Spain.

In the second case, I'd imagine Spain would remain neutral for as long as Hitler allows. He hated communism and didn't forgive humiliations, which a defeat for the Nationalists would certainly be if Germany and Italy put in similar support to OTL. How would such a defeat go down in Italy I wonder?
 
How would such a defeat go down in Italy I wonder?

Since it would likely be the end of his career, M would have to double down (but your scenario excludes it) or have a very good excuse to sell the defeat as strategic disengagement.
Perhaps taking over parts of Spanish colonies could be one.
 
What kind of government would they have under the Republicans?
How would this look from the viewpoint of the spread of Socialism?
This is a question that comes up in most Spanish Civil war threads, and the answer is always that it depends on how the Republicans win. If the Republicans win early then you probably have a more left wing but one which is still democratic and with relatively little Communist influence. I imagine the alliance between the Republicans and the Anarchists would last-it didn't see out the war IOTL-so I imagine the uprisings in Catalonia and the like would be crushed, and there would be bad blood between socialists and anarchists, who would continue to be the revolutionary faction with a greater presence in Spain.

If their is a later PoD, which means that Soviet aid gives the Communists the prominence that they had in the Negrin government, then the result is a Spain that is Soviet friendly, but the government would likely continue to be a coalition between PSOE and the Communists. Stalin didn't really want a Communist Spain, and he discouraged an overthrow of the Republican government.
Would the Nazis think twice about starting World War Two - like waiting for two years to make sure their army was ready (there are some radical historians that suggest that if Hitler waited to invade Poland for 1-2 years, he might be far more successful)?
I don't see why he would. Spain would have expended a large amount of manpower and resources in winning the civil war. Their troops were of a rather poor quality compared to the rest of Europe, which didn't exactly make life difficult for Germany IOTL. Post Civil War Spain would probably be a liability to whichever side it joined in WW2.
 
Last edited:
Top