Spanish civil war lasts another year

[Noscoper]

Had the Spanish civil war lasted into 1940 what would happen

 

[Bad@logic]

How does it last another year? To my knowledge the Nationalists had rather overwhelming superiority by the ending stages.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I answered this to a similar thread some time ago:

The Republicans start their Teruel Offensive in December 1937 with better preparation:

1-The International Brigades are brought onto the battle rather than kept in reserve as IOTL for propaganda purposes.
2-Rather than getting bogged in a very difficult urban battle for Teruel itself, the Republicans just encircle the city and continue advancing west. OTL, a major objective of this offensive was to capture the city for the propaganda hit that would be the first Republican recapture of a provincial capital. OTL the nationalist defenders of Teruel resisted for weeks in house-by-house fighting in subzero temperatures. The Republicans captured the city for a few days before a nationalist counteroffensive drove them back in January 1938.

Instead, the Republicans encircle Teruel and capture the easily defensive positions in the mountains west of the city, accomplishing their strategical goal of closing the Teruel salient that threatened the mediterranean coast. Teruel itself is besieged for months and surrenders sometime in the spring of 1938. However, with more available men, not having to deal with the Teruel meat grinder, occupying defensible positions in the mountains and threatening new offensives in the Aragon and Guadalajara fronts, the Republicans are able to easily withstand the Nationalist counteroffensive.

By the spring of 1938, the republicans have suffered much less casualties than OTL, have finally captured Teruel and have managed to keep their airforce largely intact. Now either Franco cancels the spring offensive in Aragon, that IOTL led to the nationalists reaching the mediterranean coast and splitting Catalonia away from the rest of the Republican zone, or it succeeds but the Republicans are in a much better shape when Vicente Rojo crosses the Ebro in July 1938. This allows the Republicans to win the battle of the Ebro thanks to their new soviet weapons and planes, and reconnect Catalonia with the rest of the Republican area.

By September 1938 both sides are exhausted: the Nationalists have suffered their first major strategic defeat in two years, the frontlines have barely moved for a year and the Republicans still are in no shape no start any major offensive. By late 1938, the Republicans are receiving more and more soviet supplies, but they still keep to their OTL strategy of slowly building up, resisting any major nationalist offensive and wait for the general european war that they assume will come sooner or later. This is made easier since they still control Catalonia's industry (and maybe victories in both Teruel and the Ebro give the Republican government enough political capital to be able to wrestle away the catalan factories from the anarchists). As 1939 begins, neither side is able to mount any major offensive: the Republicans are strong enough to resist but too weak to attack, and the Nationalists are unable to dislodge them from their positions around Madrid and in Aragon -and Franco's well of german and italian weapons is starting to dry as Germany now has other priorities...

In this scenario, both sides get bogged down in a stalemate in the spring of 1939: the Republicans are keeping their shit together but are unable or unwilling to launch any major offensive, while Franco still has the upper hand strategically but is seeing his well of weapons and volunteers dry as Germany and Italy start preparing for a general european war.

 

[ChazMo]

Doable. Somebody here once posited that, had the Republicans been a little more tactical in 1937 (i.e. throwing the International Brigades into the Teruel slog - they were kept in reserve in anticipation of a P.R. coup), they could have preserved enough of their forces to stall the Nationalist advance on the Ebro in the spring of 1938, effectively ushering in a stalemate on the Spanish front.

EDIT: Yeah, that's it, Dr. Strangelove! Would love to see that TL done some time.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

<snip>

Awesome! Now the question is, once the big war breaks, does the Spanisg conflict become entangled?

 

[celt]

Awesome! Now the question is, once the big war breaks, does the Spanisg conflict become entangled?

More than a few British army regiments get another Peninsula campaign added to there battle honours.

 

[ChazMo]

More than a few British army regiments get another Peninsula campaign added to there battle honours.

Difficult. Iberia is a terrible place to stage a landing. More likely, German forces roll in after the fall of France, crush the last Republican pockets of resistance within the space of a few months, only to find themselves bogged down in a strange country already bombed to Kingdom Come, surrounded by a people of dubious loyalty.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

More than a few British army regiments get another Peninsula campaign added to there battle honours.

Difficult. Iberia is a terrible place to stage a landing. More likely, German forces roll in after the fall of France, crush the last Republican pockets of resistance within the space of a few months, only to find themselves bogged down in a strange country already bombed to Kingdom Come, surrounded by a people of dubious loyalty.

But we can all agree that Spain isn't going to be neutral TTL, right? If Franco is part of the Axis, we can safely assume an Allied Win would mean the end of his regime.

 

[celt]

Difficult. Iberia is a terrible place to stage a landing. More likely, German forces roll in after the fall of France, crush the last Republican pockets of resistance within the space of a few months, only to find themselves bogged down in a strange country already bombed to Kingdom Come, surrounded by a people of dubious loyalty.

But from September 39 till the fall of France the Germans will be in no position to help Franco's forces because of the British blockade and the Republicans will have been supplied with whatever armaments the allies can spare.

Two questions:

1, how easy would it be to invade across a defended Pyrenees?

2, and more interestingly what implications would all of this have for Italy's entry into the war?

 

[ChazMo]

But we can all agree that Spain isn't going to be neutral TTL, right? If Franco is part of the Axis, we can safely assume an Allied Win would mean the end of his regime.

Quite possible he'd pledge his services to the Allies the moment the opportunity presented itself (covertly, at first). In fact, this is likely, given Spain's dependence on Western food imports Germany would never be able to provide.

 

[ChazMo]

But from September 39 till the fall of France the Germans will be in no position to help Franco's forces because of the British blockade and the Republicans will have been supplied with whatever armaments the allies can spare.

Yeah, this would have to be after the fall of France. We're assuming the civil war's ground to a stalemate by this point, due to either sides' backers having priorities (*cough*) elsewhere.

1, how easy would it be to invade across a defended Pyrenees?

Difficult - there's the onset of winter to worry about once we've accounted for the total decimation of Spain's infrastructure. But I think it can still be pulled off, and the actual subduing of Republican forces once across the frontier will be a cakewalk.

2, and more interestingly what implications would all of this have for Italy's entry into the war?

I'll leave this one to an expert.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Quite possible he'd pledge his services to the Allies the moment the opportunity presented itself (covertly, at first). In fact, this is likely, given Spain's dependence on Western food imports Germany would never be able to provide.

Now this is interesting -- Franco's fascists, while still fighting the Republicans, align themselves with the Allies. Would Britain expect a negotiated settlement to the civil war as a precondition?