In the 1640s, while it was busy fighting in the Thirty Years' war, Spain faced three revolts in Portugal (1640-1666), Catalonia (1640-1659) and Naples (1647-48). The former was successful, but the latter two were crushed. WI Catalonia was annexed by France and Naples won its independence, probably also becoming a French ally?

Here are two PODs that could help:

Regarding Catalonia, the second naval battle of Tarragona either doesn't happen or is a French victory, and the port with the same name is captured by the troops of marshal Philippe de La Mothe-Houdancourt, who isn't forced on the defensive as a result.

Regarding Naples, the French capture Orbetello the year before the revolt happens, allowing them to quickly support it once it happens and put a better candidate on the Neapolitan throne than the Duke of Guise. That candidate would probably Thomas of Savoy, who comanded the siege of Orbetello and was defeated IOTL.

What would be the consequences of Spain losing so much territory in Europe? Their prestige would surely suffer a terrible blow, as well as their economy. Would Philip IV or his successor, who might not be Charles II but perhaps Baltasar Carlos, attempt to do a Habsburg version of the Bourbon Reforms to save the Spanish economy?
 
This would almost certainly cause Spain to drop the war, since they would likely have a lot of devastation and loss of their soldiers. This means that France is suddenly free to really reck house in europe (with duch backing should they so choose). All in all, not a good day to be a hapsburg. Plus I bet this will embolden the colonies to wrestle some autonomy from Spain, since they were kept on a tight leash.
 
This would almost certainly cause Spain to drop the war, since they would likely have a lot of devastation and loss of their soldiers. This means that France is suddenly free to really reck house in europe (with duch backing should they so choose). All in all, not a good day to be a hapsburg. Plus I bet this will embolden the colonies to wrestle some autonomy from Spain, since they were kept on a tight leash.

The thing is, most of the territory France wants is controlled by the Spanish Habsburgs. So they may not allow Spain to get out until it makes serious concessions.
 
The thing is, most of the territory France wants is controlled by the Spanish Habsburgs. So they may not allow Spain to get out until it makes serious concessions.
True, but it wants the hapsburgs weakened as a whole. They might demand more, and probably get it since Spain probably isn't in a position to resist, but they'd probably still keep fighting for a little while. They sided with the protestants to weaken the HRE, taking Spain's stuff would have just been a bonus
 
Could Louis XIV try (and succeed) to bite off an even bigger chunk of Europe, such as the Spanish Netherlands and the left bank of the Rhine, in one of his many, many wars?
 
Another thing that might be a variable is the Hindu population of Luzon getting a boost in population later swamping out the Catholic former Muslim population...
 
Or Koxinga conquering the place.
I don't think that is even possible for Koxinga to get Luzon or Selurong, but Tungning and Hindus allying could happen to cause the Hindus and rebels to gain control of Luzon and Visayas going to Tungning...I mentioned my TL's premise...
 
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Thomas1195

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In EdT's Bloody Man TL, we have the Commonwealth of England intervening in the Neapolitan Revolt and Masaniello being "martyred" under Genoino's order as soon as the former went nut.
 
In case the Habsburgs try to reform their colonial empire the same way the Bourbons did, could we see the Spanish colonies becoming independent in the late 17th/early18th century?
 
It's certainly possible that Spain could collapse but France never really wanted Catalonia it was more just a means to and end of beating Spain. So while France is in a better position in Catalonia if they've secured Tarragona and Tortosa their real objectives are still to make gains in the north. I think a realistic possibility is that Spain is forced into conceding to Mazarin's demands in Westphalia, basically Maria Theresa marries Louis XIV with the Spanish Netherlands as her dowry. Spain probably resists until the collapse in Naples occurs in 1647 when its finally forced to give in. So in exchange for giving up the Netherlands France withdraws from Catalonia, retaining Roussillon (but with Rosas which they really tried hard to get OTL). The French also retain the Presidi giving them a prominent position in Italy and the Central Mediterranean.

OTL Spain was prepared to accept a 30 Year Truce in Catalonia as part of a tentative Peace deal with France. So here I'd expect that Spain would be forced to accept a similar Truce to cover Portugal and Naples. Probably Naples is divided with Spain control the south and the pro-French Tommaso's ruled centered in Naples itself and Campania since I can't see Spain collapsing so rapidly that the French can mop up resistance in all quarters in Calabria and Puglia before a Peace Treaty is signed. And the French would be fine with this since a weak Tommaso would be very dependent upon the French to keep the Spanish out. And Spain really needs these Truces even if it doesn't want them since, if it's totally collapsed, it will need a breather to recover. Spain is likely also forced to abandon the Duke of Lorraine with Lorraine being annexed outright by France as Richelieu and Mazarin had long desired.

Domestically Spain might not be so bad off as it appears. If a Truce with Portugal is forced upon Philip IV it ironically might strengthen is hand in the long run. OTL his obsession with retaking Portugal led him to waste resources on fighting there which in the end gained nothing for Spain as Portugal was definitively lost. So if Spain can spend the 1650s in recovery, carefully reintegrating Catalonia and recovering their finances while France is concerned with interfering in Germany and figuring out how to deal with Cromwell in England along with trying to integrate the Spanish Netherlands. So Spain may be able to partially right the ship, not to the point that it can recover its former outsized role in Europe but at least to the point that it can defend itself in a future conflict with France and possibly recover Naples from Tommaso's likely unstable regime if its willing to concede independence to Portugal and limit a future conflict to as few fronts as possible. Milan's a big question mark as Naples supplied most of the men and money for the Spanish Army of Milan so without that support and with the French controlling the Presidi Milan is very vulnerable. Philip would be better off to dispose of it, probably to Austria in exchange for their support.
 
Why would France not take Catalonia if it was possible? I wouldn't be surprised if a swap with the Netherlands was conducted (especially since England would be in the middle of its civil war and therefore unable to intervene), but isn't the place quite rich? Also, having Barcelona would strengthen its position in the Mediterranean as well.

EDIT: Although Antwerp would probably be worth more.
 
In case the Habsburgs try to reform their colonial empire the same way the Bourbons did, could we see the Spanish colonies becoming independent in the late 17th/early18th century?
Depends, but if in a real danger to be shallow by anyone else, the Capitancy might declare independance of a sinking ship
 
Why would France not take Catalonia if it was possible? I wouldn't be surprised if a swap with the Netherlands was conducted (especially since England would be in the middle of its civil war and therefore unable to intervene), but isn't the place quite rich? Also, having Barcelona would strengthen its position in the Mediterranean as well.

EDIT: Although Antwerp would probably be worth more.

The Spanish Netherlands was far closer to Paris. The Spanish border was only 140km north of Paris when Richelieu took France to war with Spain. In 1636, the Year of Corbie, the Spanish Army reached as far as Nesle and Roye which is only 100km from Paris. So the threat of a foreign attack on the capital city was very real something that Spain never had to contend with. Richelieu considered the acquisition of Artois and Lorraine at a minimum as the key to securing a defensible frontier that would end the threat to the capital. On the other hand Catalonia is a distant province with a recalcitrant people with a history of rebellion that would be constantly vulnerable to Spanish attack. And importantly as you pointed out there was a narrow window of opportunity in the 1640s in which France could expand into the Netherlands without having to worry about English opposition which drove Mazarin's obsession with gaining the Spanish Netherlands at Westphalia.
 
Depends, but if in a real danger to be shallow by anyone else, the Capitancy might declare independance of a sinking ship

I think the real danger to colonies is how successful -or not- Spain is in negotiating a Treaty with the Netherlands if its position is significantly weaker. If Spain is forced to open up trade with the Americas to the Dutch to gain Peace with the Netherlands the colonies could start to drift away as economic ties with Castile weaken.
 
I think the real danger to colonies is how successful -or not- Spain is in negotiating a Treaty with the Netherlands if its position is significantly weaker. If Spain is forced to open up trade with the Americas to the Dutch to gain Peace with the Netherlands the colonies could start to drift away as economic ties with Castile weaken.
Hope so, Dutch trade would help a lot the local economies too
 
Well better Castilian finances would help the colonies a lot too. Trade within the colonies declined during the 17th century for a number a reasons but two of the big ones were due to heavy taxation and because the Spanish government kept impounding private Silver from the Americas when it reached Seville. Only a small portion of the treasure fleet was actually owned by the crown. A large chunk was privately owned, basically the profits of traders who had sold goods in the colonies being repatriated in the form of silver. The Spanish crown being desperately strapped for cash during the Franco-Spanish War would take possession of all the silver and compensate the owners with vellon, the increasingly worthless copper coinage of Castile, at a nominal exchange rate. So really if you didn't have good prospects of ever getting your money back why would you bother engaging in trade in the Americas.
 
I would like to remind people that before 1648 there was no such thing as a "Spanish Netherlands", as opposed to the Dutch Repuvlic. There would just be a Netherlands that was still occupied by Spain and a Netherlands that was in rebellion to Spain. The Dutch were at this point still fighting the Spanish and trying to recapture as much of the Netherlands as possible (and allied to France). Although France certainly would want a slice of the Southern Netherlands (like they did OTL), if the Spanish completely collapse and lose the Netherlands, they would lose to both the Dutch as well as France. Meaning, the Dutch would be able to capture more of the Southern Netherlands than OTL, before officialy becoming independent. A city like Antwerp, close to the Dutch front and the major target of the last years of the Dutch revolt, would no doubt end up part of the Dutch Republic and not part of France. The same is true for several northern Belgian cities, like Bruges and probably Ostend and Ghent. I am not saying the border would be the language border. That is an anachronistic thought, but if the Spanish collpase so badly that they lose the southern Netherlands in this time period it will be split between the Netherlands and France. It will not be France annexing all of the southern Netherlands.
 
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