In the 1640s, while it was busy fighting in the Thirty Years' war, Spain faced three revolts in Portugal (1640-1666), Catalonia (1640-1659) and Naples (1647-48). The former was successful, but the latter two were crushed. WI Catalonia was annexed by France and Naples won its independence, probably also becoming a French ally?
Here are two PODs that could help:
Regarding Catalonia, the second naval battle of Tarragona either doesn't happen or is a French victory, and the port with the same name is captured by the troops of marshal Philippe de La Mothe-Houdancourt, who isn't forced on the defensive as a result.
Regarding Naples, the French capture Orbetello the year before the revolt happens, allowing them to quickly support it once it happens and put a better candidate on the Neapolitan throne than the Duke of Guise. That candidate would probably Thomas of Savoy, who comanded the siege of Orbetello and was defeated IOTL.
What would be the consequences of Spain losing so much territory in Europe? Their prestige would surely suffer a terrible blow, as well as their economy. Would Philip IV or his successor, who might not be Charles II but perhaps Baltasar Carlos, attempt to do a Habsburg version of the Bourbon Reforms to save the Spanish economy?
Here are two PODs that could help:
Regarding Catalonia, the second naval battle of Tarragona either doesn't happen or is a French victory, and the port with the same name is captured by the troops of marshal Philippe de La Mothe-Houdancourt, who isn't forced on the defensive as a result.
Regarding Naples, the French capture Orbetello the year before the revolt happens, allowing them to quickly support it once it happens and put a better candidate on the Neapolitan throne than the Duke of Guise. That candidate would probably Thomas of Savoy, who comanded the siege of Orbetello and was defeated IOTL.
What would be the consequences of Spain losing so much territory in Europe? Their prestige would surely suffer a terrible blow, as well as their economy. Would Philip IV or his successor, who might not be Charles II but perhaps Baltasar Carlos, attempt to do a Habsburg version of the Bourbon Reforms to save the Spanish economy?