Spanish Armada

Are there any good TLs or discussions of a successful Spanish Armada? I searched and only found a couple of small discussions. Seems like there would be something more significant than that.

I'm interested in insights on how the Armada could be successful, and what the immediate and long-term effects would be?
 
Following Garrett Mattingly's narrative in his history titled simply The Armada, there is the suggestion there that the key might have been not to assemble the armada at all but instead to concentrate on the final conquest of the Netherlands; this would greatly strengthen Spain's position not only against England but France as well, as well as of course ending a drain on the treasury and replacing it with a source of taxes and other resources.

By the time of the Armada, Spain had been trying to crack the Dutch nut so long it had become conventional wisdom they could never prevail there without somehow slapping down the English. But Parma, who was the commander of the Lowlands expedition, believed that with the resources spent on the Armada invested instead in him, he could do it.

Restored Spanish control over all the Netherlands would still mean Parma's vastly superior army forces would somehow have to cross the Channel against English opposition, but sufficient naval force to escort the transports from harbors in the Lowlands, comprised in part or in whole of Dutch-designed and manned vessels evolved for Channel warfare, would be much easier to acquire in these circumstances, and once Parma's men were landed--well, this is where one should read Mattingly and then apply one's own sense of an alt-history army war between these crack troops and the sort of land forces Elizabeth would be likely to raise--bearing in mind the danger of a Catholic uprising was not negligible, especially given a strong Catholic force to rally to.
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I'm guessing this thread might be inspired by my response to another thread, so I won't elaborate on what I said there, which to be brief is to say the English had been concentrating on developing longer, more powerful, more accurate ranged naval cannon, a fact well known to the Spanish, and in the event the superior range of the English defense fleet's cannon did prove decisive despite some effective Spanish countermeasures.

The Armada suffered other liabilities--it was very far from the bases it had launched from, where its crews had been called to board long before the fleet set out, thus exposing them to shipboard diseases and malnutrition. (Also, an earlier expedition by Drake had among other things resulted in the destruction of stocks of seasoned wood for supply barrels; bad storage of food and water was a problem that plagued the Armada.) The English were of course near their bases and Elizabeth had defied the pleas and demands of her courtiers and largely dispersed the crews ashore for most of the waiting period--to save money, she said, but it also had the effect that the English crews were much fresher when they faced the Spanish.

So there are a lot of variables in there. One might skip the Armada completely and go with first crushing the Dutch. Or perhaps the Armada planners figuring out how to counter or match the superior English cannon.
 
The dutch were on the brink of surrender in the months before the Armada. An english defeat would have moved them to the negotiations table on the loser's side.

As for the Armada to win. IMHO, the English cannons (though superior to the Spanish both technically and in their doctrine of use) have been overestimated. The damage they inflicted on the Spanish fleet was minimum. And the English fleet run out of powder using them!

If the Spanish fleet had known this fact and had been able to turn back, they could have landed an army unopposed!
 
The dutch were on the brink of surrender in the months before the Armada. An english defeat would have moved them to the negotiations table on the loser's side.

As for the Armada to win. IMHO, the English cannons (though superior to the Spanish both technically and in their doctrine of use) have been overestimated. The damage they inflicted on the Spanish fleet was minimum. And the English fleet run out of powder using them!

If the Spanish fleet had known this fact and had been able to turn back, they could have landed an army unopposed!
 
Much as it pains me to say the English didn't outsail or outshoot the Spanish, it was more to do with the wind and lack of organisation of the Spanish than English seamanship that caused the Amarda to fail.

With regards to sucess of the overarching scheme, to invade England and re-convert it I can't see this working as Philip was hated in England, whislt Elizabeth was liked so could rally troops to her with ease. I can foresee a long struggle with Spain loosing at the end. It would mean that England didn't really colonise America until later however.
 
Much as it pains me to say the English didn't outsail or outshoot the Spanish, it was more to do with the wind and lack of organisation of the Spanish than English seamanship that caused the Amarda to fail.

With regards to sucess of the overarching scheme, to invade England and re-convert it I can't see this working as Philip was hated in England, whislt Elizabeth was liked so could rally troops to her with ease. I can foresee a long struggle with Spain loosing at the end. It would mean that England didn't really colonise America until later however.

Philip II was not the fool everybody seems to think he was. The invassion force would have run to London after landing. There were no forces to stop the Spanish Army and they would have reached it quite fast. With London taken and the risk of a Catholic uprising, the English crown would have asked for terms. They would have been most probably:

* Retreat of English forces in the Netherlands and end the support to the rebels (this means the end of the war there),
* Payment of compensations for the sacking of Cadiz and the capture of several ships coming from the Americas,
* Compromise that Elizabeth would allow free catholic cult and impose several catholic ministers.

The Spanish King knew that this meant ending the Dutch rebellion and weaken England.
 
The Dutch were not close to surrender and the Duke of Parma hated the Armada as a disaster to his plans.

First he had to dramatically scale back his own operations until 1587 while the diversion funds and supplies eroded his army but then the process went on until 1588. He knew all too well what giving an enemy almost two years to recover and fortify meant to his future plans. Not to mention what it meant for his own army and preparedness as he lost more than a third of his strength by the time the Armada was in motion, Parma's troops having this strange urge for regular food and supplies...

Then the Armada arrived and the lack of shipping to get his army to England became clear while the Dutch fleet drooled at the image of Parma's army trapped on some sad collection of ships which they could reach in the shallow waters off the coast...and the Armada could not...



At sea the English ships were superior in terms of sailing, agility, artillery range and many other areas which explained the comment by one high ranking Spanish officer to Medinia-Sidonia himself that the Armada was sailing in the "confident expectation of a miracle"...which is to say that he could see little hope of defeating the English unless the English did only what the Spanish wanted.


In fact the Armada was rather well organized and due to formations taken by the Armada the English found picking off individual ships much more difficult than they had hoped. Of course, the Armada had a schedule and a list of places to go which could not be abandoned so the English could be patient to some degree...
 
Philip II was not the fool everybody seems to think he was. The invassion force would have run to London after landing. There were no forces to stop the Spanish Army and they would have reached it quite fast.

I thought the English militias where at Tilbury. Whilst I am not sure of their number they would have posed some difficultly for the landing troops or slowed the advance enough to get defenses up in London surely.
 
I thought the English militias where at Tilbury. Whilst I am not sure of their number they would have posed some difficultly for the landing troops or slowed the advance enough to get defenses up in London surely.

English militias badly equipped against hardened veteran Tercios... two years before the Spanish forces were capable of marching 30 miles per day (if I remember correctly) in Normandy facing french troops (much tougher than English militias).

As an example:

http://west-penwith.org.uk/raid.htm
 
Much would have depended on where the Spanish landed, but from the Netherlands the quickest sea journey would have put them in Margate or Clacton, assuming they were not suicida; enough to sail up the Thames (given the English tactic of fire ships).

The English would have been much closer to London and could have manned the walls and sent out plees for help before the Duke of Parma had stepped on English soil.
 
Coordenation

Most books I've read on the Armada agree that Parma's army wasn't ready to cross when the Armada reached it's intended position, leading to the Armada having to wait in a unprotected position, exposing itself to the fireships attack that lead it to dispersal, a long sail home and losses.
If the Army had been ready in time, and the weather had been favourable, the Armada would have been able to cover the crossing and the intended invasion would have happened.

Also, Medina Savoia took over the Armada when The Marquis of Santa Cruz (alvaro de Bazan) died, and Savoia was never the sailor Bazan was. Give the Armada it's intended Admiral, and it could have fared better.
 
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