Spanish American War

What if the Spanish American war had been hapened only in the Caribbean and the United States had not attacked Manila or Guam
 
Then the Philippines and Guam will remain in Spanish hands for at least 10 more years before the Revolutionaries could able to consolidate its arm strength to expel the Spaniards.
 
Not so sure about that with the Germans singularly interested in the Philippines. I suggest it's possible that, smarting from the recent defeat by the US and the loss of Cuba and Puerto Rico coupled with a war debt, Spain could have been coerced by Germany into selling the Philippines and possibly Guam in the bargain.

While the US might not have been the moset enlightened colonial power possible in the day, it was surely better than a lot of the European nations. Difficult to say how Germany would have administered the Philippines but I suspect it may have been somewhat heavy-handed in doing so.
 
in our timeline spain sold the micronesian islands to Germany following the loss of the Philipines and guame. thay were then tacken by Japan following WW1. My question is would Spain have sold the Philipines and Micronesia to Germany if the Spanish American war had not spread to the Pacific?
 
Then the Philippines and Guam will remain in Spanish hands for at least 10 more years before the Revolutionaries could able to consolidate its arm strength to expel the Spaniards.

I have to agree partially on this. If everything goes as OTL and no other Filipino joins the rebels, Philippines would remain a Spanish colony. I do disagree with the 10 more years. As long as the rebellion doesnt have the support of the illustrados and insulares, being Spanish colony is almost permanent.

The rebellion needs the resources of everyone who joined in OTL 1898, the mestizos, insulares and the illustrados. 1897 Aguinaldo and the Katipunan, isnt capable of taking down Spain alone due to lack of talent and resources.

of course the other side of the coin is actually insulares/illustrados/mestizos join the rebellion, which will make winning against Spain proceed the same way as OTL.
 
Would the Japanese try to take advantage of the situation in the *Revolution circa 1910?

I doubt it, Japan remembered the Triple Intervention which was only happened a few years earlier and something like that would probably happen again if Japan makes a move on the Philippines.
 
I think if the Us hadn't attacked the Philippines in 1898 then the only two possibilities are for them to become a German and then a Japanese colony after WW1 or to remain a Spanish colony at lease until world war two
 
I think if the Us hadn't attacked the Philippines in 1898 then the only two possibilities are for them to become a German and then a Japanese colony after WW1 or to remain a Spanish colony at lease until world war two

The unrest would make the latter very unlikely. Spain is collapsing. It can barely keep Cuba, let alone some islands half a world away.

Japanese, not likely either. They have little prestige at that time. This is before the Russo-Japanese War, after all.

Remember, though, that the US just wanted a couple of military bases here. After the Spanish-American War, if the Philippines rebels, America will support it as a fellow republic. Really, at this time, it'd be too far to be concerned about.
 
For japanese and german colonization, you got to know the relationship between philippines with Germany and Japan which a lot of people in alt history is not aware of. Since everyone assumes germany or Japan will invade the philippines which is a misconception created only by otl 1898 USA propaganda to justify philippine invasion at that time.

You also have to consider who joins the rebels in the philippines. This will let you know the capability of the rebels. Which will define if capable if bringing down spain without any foreign help.

You also must know how much will it cost the japanese or german government to ferry at least 100,000 troops fund and supply for at least 3 years along with a port to unload troops unharrassed. USA did this while they were allies with philippines in manila.

You must also define if this is a surprise attack or the locals will know their will be war with Japan or germany. Usa had the advantage of suprise attack. So if Japan and Germany has no surprise attack, there is a possibility of losing.

As long as the spanish asian navy is intact, Spain will reinforce the philippines just like otl 1897.
 
I think there is a good chance that Spain could have held the Philipines for many Years if the US had not attacked the islands. this is based on the fact that the rebels did not revolt until after the US attack and that the United States navy transported a Philipino rebel leader from exile in Hong Kong back to the Philipines in order to start the anti Spanish Rebelion
 
I think there is a good chance that Spain could have held the Philipines for many Years if the US had not attacked the islands. this is based on the fact that the rebels did not revolt until after the US attack and that the United States navy transported a Philipino rebel leader from exile in Hong Kong back to the Philipines in order to start the anti Spanish Rebelion

Being spanish colony after 1900 is one of the outcomes. The philippine population rebelled before usa came but not all of them. The 1896/7 rebellion was mostly Indio caste with some mestizo rebellion which is why it failed. The insulares and illustrados caste hasn't joined full force.

The insulares and the illustrados may or may not rebel with or without usa since their rebellion is dependent on how the Spanish treated them.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
The effects are likely to be far more pronounced than the fate of the Philippines and Guam. Both of those would have stayed Spanish until someone else had the might and inclination to take them. The rebels could safely be ignored

What happens to America? Does it retain its isolationist attitude and not start to play the great power in the Pacific?
 
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