So I've been fiddling around with the idea of a Spanish-American war that takes place somewhere between 1819-1820. The Adam-Onis treaty was very tense and it was close to breaking down with no concrete provisions being agreed upon. The main issue stemmed from the American inheritance of French Louisiana's claims to Texas (I believe it was all the way up to the Rio Grande if I'm not mistaken?) In otl, Adams consistently asked for territory up to the Colorado River (Texas) though Onis was heavily against giving even an inch of Texas to the United States. Even after Onis was ordered to give up the land if it meant that the treaty could be agreed upon, he never made the offer to the Americans.
I do think in the end, Onis would give in realistically. This, coupled with Andrew Jackson's incursions in Florida made Onis was very wary of a possible war and the possibility there is more to lose with a war with the United States. While most of the revolutionaries in New Spain were almost entirely dealt with by this time, there was still a lot of troubles in South America. But for the sake of the post, let us assume Onis doesn't give in and refuses to cede an inch of Texas. Jackson continues his attacks in Florida which ultimately sparks the war with Spain declaring war. Alternately the US could be the one to declare the war, though I can't really think of anything realistic for Congress to unanimously get behind? Maybe Spain fights back Jackson's attacks and kills some Americans? Who knows, though the war has started.
As for the logistics of the war, the US is in a much nicer place in this conflict. It has direct access to occupy both Florida and Texas, while Spain either has to relocate troops in New Spain or send the armies being gather to shipped to fight the independence wars in South America to North America to fight the United States. The US Navy is the complete opposite of the Spanish: small but capable. It was able to occasionally harass the British in 1812 and capture/sink several of their ships. The Spanish navy is no British, it's inefficient, old, and its only upside is it's large. I doubt the US could mount any kind of invasion of Cuba, the navy just doesn't have the capabilities of maintaining the Straits of Florida for this to happen. The other issue the American army faces is Spain's New World allies: the Comanche; which would harass the US soldiers making their advance a lot more difficult.
So based on the stuff I laid out the questions are:
I do think in the end, Onis would give in realistically. This, coupled with Andrew Jackson's incursions in Florida made Onis was very wary of a possible war and the possibility there is more to lose with a war with the United States. While most of the revolutionaries in New Spain were almost entirely dealt with by this time, there was still a lot of troubles in South America. But for the sake of the post, let us assume Onis doesn't give in and refuses to cede an inch of Texas. Jackson continues his attacks in Florida which ultimately sparks the war with Spain declaring war. Alternately the US could be the one to declare the war, though I can't really think of anything realistic for Congress to unanimously get behind? Maybe Spain fights back Jackson's attacks and kills some Americans? Who knows, though the war has started.
As for the logistics of the war, the US is in a much nicer place in this conflict. It has direct access to occupy both Florida and Texas, while Spain either has to relocate troops in New Spain or send the armies being gather to shipped to fight the independence wars in South America to North America to fight the United States. The US Navy is the complete opposite of the Spanish: small but capable. It was able to occasionally harass the British in 1812 and capture/sink several of their ships. The Spanish navy is no British, it's inefficient, old, and its only upside is it's large. I doubt the US could mount any kind of invasion of Cuba, the navy just doesn't have the capabilities of maintaining the Straits of Florida for this to happen. The other issue the American army faces is Spain's New World allies: the Comanche; which would harass the US soldiers making their advance a lot more difficult.
So based on the stuff I laid out the questions are:
- Who'd be more likely to win this war?
- And what would the peace deal entail?