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Spanish-American War instead of the Mexican-American War

Would the United States have gone to war for Spanish Possessions in the Gulf and Caribbean sooner if they were unwilling/able to take Texas and the American southwest from Mexico in the 1840's?

Criteria:

  • The war needs to start between 1848-1858 and end before 1860
  • Independent Texas exists
  • The southern border of the continental US must remain at the Adams-Onis Treaty line.
  • California gold rush happens OTL
Questions:

  • Will the US win or lose?
  • Could this postpone, prevent or start the ACW?
  • What international repercussions should the US expect?
  • Is there resistance from the natives/reaction to slavery?
  • How long until statehood/How many states?
  • How long to abolition?
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