Spanish-American War 1810

The West Florida Republic was a short-lived polity in what is today the Florida Parishes of Louisiana (Lousiana east of the Mississippi). The territory then was disputed between the United States and Spain and the locals were fairly aggressive, attacking Mobile and Pensacola.

What if the West Florida Republic had erupted into a war between the United States and Spain in 1810?
 
Given that the Peninsular War was an ongoing concern for Spain I think that the United States would have a fair chance at success.
 
They were going to get it anyways at some point. All they've done is made a diplomatic blunder and angered Europe for no reason. There's no reason they couldn't have just used filibusters and gotten what they wanted without starting a war.
 
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