Spain, Sweden, and Turkey join the Axis

[tchizek]

Just focusing on Spain, the problem is that what Franco wants/needs in order to join the Axis Hitler/Germany just can't give him. Franco wants

1) Land from either France or Italy. Italy would piss off your number one ally to get a new one. France would push the French colonies into British hands.
2) Industrialization, Spain wants investment and tooling to build their industry and they want it now. Germany would have to spend capital that they need at home to build up Spain in order to get them as an Ally.
3) Food, Spain needs to replace the food they are importing. Germany would need to promise - and deliver - food that they don't have.
4) Energy, Spain needs to replace the energy they are importing. Germany would need to promise energy that they don't have. In addition Franco wanted more energy delivered at a lower cost than he was paying on the world market before he was willing to discuss joining.

Those were the minimums just to get Franco to the table. He would want more than this to actually sign the paper. He was a Spanish nationalist first and foremost, he was looking for the best possible deal for Spain and if he could wait and squeeze more out then he would.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Actually Franco provided an impossible list of demands and then added to the list out of concern that he had not been sufficiently extreme as to convince Hitler that Spain was not entering the war.

When you consider that Spain needed everything on the list and Hitler's extremely poor record of keeping his commitments...

 

[tchizek]

Actually Franco provided an impossible list of demands and then added to the list out of concern that he had not been sufficiently extreme as to convince Hitler that Spain was not entering the war.

When you consider that Spain needed everything on the list and Hitler's extremely poor record of keeping his commitments...

Well yes, but he actually needed the above. And he really didn't want another war because it could very easily trigger round 2 of SCW, so he provided an impossible list and kept adding to it. I think the only POD that might work is if Franco was killed near the end of SCW and someone less clever took over. The trouble with this POD is that it would probably prolong the SCW and that has all kinds of butterflies...

 

[Cook]

Well yes, but he actually needed the above. And he really didn't want another war because it could very easily trigger round 2 of SCW, so he provided an impossible list and kept adding to it.

This is based entirely on claims made after the war by the Franco regime. Franco pressed very hard through 1940 – 42 for German assistance to enter the war and from his public statements and private comments, and his actions supporting the Axis in every way short of an actual declaration of war it’s clear that had he received even some material support in 1940 – 41, he would have entered the war.

 

[tchizek]

This is based entirely on claims made after the war by the Franco regime. Franco pressed very hard through 1940 – 42 for German assistance to enter the war and from his public statements and private comments, and his actions supporting the Axis in every way short of an actual declaration of war it’s clear that had he received even some material support in 1940 – 41, he would have entered the war.

I think the bold part of your statement is the important part. He walked a tightrope, getting and giving as much support as he could without actually joining the Axis. As much as he liked and admired Germany and Italy he was first and foremost a Spanish nationalist, he was doing what was best for Spain and actually joining the Axis before it was completely and totally 100% obvious that Germany was going to win was not in the cards. It would have taken more than some material support in 1940-41, it would have taken substantial material support for Spain to join. Based on German records of this time, Franco kept changing his "price" to join upward whenever Germany got close to agreement.

 

[OttomanHat]

....

The only ones I could see joining the war would be Turkey who who add maybe 15000 troops at most. The real advantage would be a much more concentrated southern East front. Hitler might even be persuaded not to divide his troops and focus on the oil. Turkey itself might either starve out or be much better off depending on the fortunes of war. I foresee Inonu getting killed by a Soviet sponsored party thing and Turkey ending up like Yugoslavia (an un-allied poor communist country) or maybe not.
BTW where do you get the blank map?

 

[pike]

God dang it I had a huge post ready to go but instead i got this error message.
Your submission could not be processed because you have logged in since the previous page was loaded.

Please push the back button and reload the previous window.
My head explodes.
Can any one help.

 

[Don Grey]

God dang it I had a huge post ready to go but instead i got this error message.
Your submission could not be processed because you have logged in since the previous page was loaded.

Please push the back button and reload the previous window.
My head explodes.
Can any one help.

Next time when you enter this site remember to press the "keep me logged in" button. And when your making long posts always remember to prediodicaly highlight the post with your mouse and copy just in case you lose it and/or do it right before your press "submit reply"

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

God dang it I had a huge post ready to go but instead i got this error message.
Your submission could not be processed because you have logged in since the previous page was loaded.

Please push the back button and reload the previous window.
My head explodes.
Can any one help.

Anything more than a simple reply, do in a wordprocessor. you don't have to worry about timeouts, your laptop battery going flat, your forum session going inactive, etc.

But ya. Stay logged in. That's a help for posts that were SUPPOSED to be simple but grew like Topsy

 

[Faralis]

Anything more than a simple reply, do in a wordprocessor. you don't have to worry about timeouts, your laptop battery going flat, your forum session going inactive, etc.

But ya. Stay logged in. That's a help for posts that were SUPPOSED to be simple but grew like Topsy

Another option is a extension like Lazarus:Form recovery that keeps everything you´ve written in memory.

 

[Rubicon]

Sweden - is there a benefit to the Axis having Sweden as an ally? They were already selling the Germans all the raw materials they wanted. You might get a few divisions of Swedish troops to help back Finland against Leningrad, but is it enough to make a difference? Even if Leningrad did fall, what strategic difference does it make to the outcome of the war given what would later happen at Stalingrad and Kursk? Sweden joining the Axis would be like Ireland joining the allies.

The amount of raw material that Sweden sold to Germany fluctuated quite wildly during the war. Early war Sweden sold roughly 1/3 of primarily it's iron ore to Germany, 1/3 to the UK and 1/3 to others. After April 9th 1940, it increased to about 2/3s to Germany and 1/3 to others (basically Germany picked up the third that the UK were unable to buy)

In early 1943 Germany's share was reduced to 1/3 again and in October 1944 was completely cut.

However that was only iron ore, Sweden also had (has?) decent amounts of copper ore (which was another raw material in great need in Germany), lead ore and zinc ore.

Overall those three nations would add:
Iron Ore:
Sweden: 9-10 million tons (OTL between 6-3 million)
Spain: 1,1-1-5 millions tons (Spain sold most of it to Germany OTL)
Germany produced 2,2-3,1 million tons themselves

Copper ore:
Sweden: 7,2K-7,5K tons
Spain: 28K-63,7K tons
Germany: 28K-31K tons

Lead ore:
Sweden: 8-9K tons
Spain: 27-116K tons
Turkey: 3-11K tons
Germany: 78-81K tons

Zinc ore:
Sweden: 24-34K tons
Spain: 20-53K tons
Turkey: 3-11K tons
Germany: 165K tons

Chrome ore:
Germany: 0 tons
Turkey: 96-104K tons

Tungsten (scheelite, ferberite, hübnerite or wolfram), not not K, just actual tons
Sweden: 37-110 tons
Spain: 30-153 tons
Germany: 0
(Portugal: 862-1770 tons)

Gold:
Sweden: 6000-7280kg (2/5 out of all Europe's gold production)


Overall those three nations would add quite a bit of raw materials to fuel the war production. Not to mention the absolutely most important thing for Germany: LABOUR

Turkey had about 3 million males aged 20-49
Sweden had about 1,4 million males aged 20-49 with an unemployment rate of ~11%

Unfortunately I don't have any census numbers in Spain (might be cause of a civil war....) nor do I have unemployment numbers from either Spain or Turkey.

 

[Hkelukka]

The amount of raw material that Sweden sold to Germany fluctuated quite wildly during the war. Early war Sweden sold roughly 1/3 of primarily it's iron ore to Germany, 1/3 to the UK and 1/3 to others. After April 9th 1940, it increased to about 2/3s to Germany and 1/3 to others (basically Germany picked up the third that the UK were unable to buy)

In early 1943 Germany's share was reduced to 1/3 again and in October 1944 was completely cut.

However that was only iron ore, Sweden also had (has?) decent amounts of copper ore (which was another raw material in great need in Germany), lead ore and zinc ore.

Overall those three nations would add:...

Thank you. I wonder how high these could be if all 3 pick a total war footing, instutute a draft and spend 1-2 years before entry into the war optimizing production outputs and training.

Probably a tremendous amount of soldiers.

IF after Munich both Turkey and Sweden think that they will not be able to sit this one out and start to remilitarize citing increased tensions, no one will care, and spain after the civil war spending money on military will raise no eyebrows, considering most of theirs was just spent fighting the population.

They could do it with very little impact on anything.

Say franco dies and soemone else rules spain, a pro-nazi that militarized heavily after SCW ended and joined when Italy and Turkey joined. Turkey was promised mid-east up to africa. Italy was promised africa (not including french of spanish or other axis possessions) and Spain is promised any colonies that the Vichy government cant hold on to and Vichy is promised that they can keep any colonies that dont switch to free-france.

Sweden joins during continuation war because of badly managed UK and USSR scandinavian strategy. Sweden opts to not send forces to any foreign theather but allow axis units to set up volunteer recruitment centers in all major cities and take over all security duties in scandinavia from axis units.

France would not say a darn word about holding onto its mid-east mandates any more than holding onto south-east asia was a real issue. They would do as they are told when it comes down to it, the middle-east was hardly of any importance.

Say that pro-axis supporters in syria-lebanon and iraq stage a coup and officially ask the turkish government for military assistance and assistance in rebuilding and joining the developed nations and germany tells france to suck it up and agree that due to their close nature the vichy government feels that arabs are best lead by other arabs and cite things like Germania and Italian empires as example they could be rewarded by being granted more territories to manage in continental france. Say, the capital for example.

That way with relatively minor adjustements you could get all 3 in and give all 3 at least 1 to 2 years before the war entry to spend their currency reserves buying weapons, getting training and getting ready, similar to winter war -> continuation war.

 

[psychic]

If all the Scandinavian countries join the axis or are at least co-beligerants like Finland I wonder if (when they combine their forces with Finland) they could take St Petersburg. Or at least it might cause the Soviets to divert more forces away from fighting the Wehrmacht so maybe Germany could advance further. Axis wank scenario is the Nords take St Petersburg and the Germans take Moscow but I don't know how likely that is.

Is Spain joins the Axis they would probably want to annex Portugal and Gibraltar. They would be vulnerable to a US invasion but maybe the US would get bogged down their like Napoleon did.

If Turkey joins the Soviets would have to divert more troops and so Germany does even better on the Eastern Front. Also I heard that in WW1 Turkey stopped imports getting into Russia so that might happen again.

Also if more countries join the Axis I wonder if it might make the US more reluctant to participate in a European war (as in they just ignore Germany's declaration of war and fight Japan only)

 

[katchen]

I can think of a scenario that would get first Turkey then Spain and then Sweden to join the Axis.
This scenario hinges on Otto Skorzeny being able to organize a Special Forces operation to take the main French naval base at Toulon before the French armistice in June 1940. Perhaps with air support dropping Tabun and Sarin bombs to incapacitate French crews. Once the French Mediteranean Fleet is captured, Germany can think about transporting German troops and Vichy French troops to Beirut and Latakia to take control of Syria and Lebanon, then under French Leauge of Natons Mandate.
In the meantime, at Germany's behest, Hassan al Banna and the Muslim Brotherhood launches an uprising in Egypt The Nazis have been cultivating Hassan Al Bannahs Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt since the Muslim Brotherhood's formation in 1928, even before they took power in Germany. and Haj Amin el Husseni, who translates Nazi concepts into Quranic concepts, giving rise to much of the political Islam we know today IOTL. Now it pays off. See www.guernicamag.com/interviews/berman_5_15_10/. With the British troops from Dunkirk still disorganized and ill equipped and the New Zealanders not ready to reinforce Egypt, (they won't get to Egypt IOTL until September 1940 and this is July 1940), King Farouk is overthrown and a pro-Axis government is formed in Egpt. The few British soldiers then stationed in Egypt are forced to evacuate to Palestine where they literally stand shoulder to shoulder with the Britrish troops occupying Palestineand with the Palestinian Jews who mobilize every adult, man or woman against the Nazi threat. While digging the British and Palestinian Jews out of Palestine would be incredibly difficult (akin to digging a badger out of it's den) the Nazis would have Syria and Suez by August 1940 and a perception that theirs was still the side tha twas wining.In my opinion, that, along with the fact hat the Syrian frontier is Turkey's most vuleraable frontieir would induce Turkey to join the Axis.
Spain, Sweden and perhaps Portugal would be likely to follow suit.

 

[CalBear]

Necro = Closed