Spain stays out of the 7 years war

What are the immediate short term and medium term results likely to be (say turn of century). Carlos, for whatever reason does not gain the throne in 1760. Ferdinand persists on the throne for a time yet and the Wall ministry remains in charge of Spain.

Does this hasten the end of the war without Spain's entry? Canada has fallen and the British fleet is turning its attention to France's Caribbean Islands, Prussia is on its last legs, or so it would seem in any case.....Do the French soldier on in any case, hoping that with Prussia's eventual fall they can regain some of their position at the peace. the British after the events of 1760 will be urging Prussia to cut its losses
so that Prussia's loss doesn't undo their own gains.
The Wall ministry will continue to defend Spain's interests most vociferously but is unlikely to enter without being provoked first. They could offer to mediate though. Carlos was Anglophobic. Once he comes to the throne its only a matter of when not if.

So we will suggest that Ferdinand recovers at least somewhat from his melancholy and depression induced dementia at least until the final peace is worked out. Preferably just keep him on the throne for as long as possible such that Spain continues down its steadfast path of neutrality, preferring to be on terms that are not hostile to either the French or the British.
 
France's fate was already sealed. Britain wasn't giving anything up to save Prussia. Whether Prussia hangs on or is lost doesn't really affect France's position at the peace table. France doesn't really have the means to hold on long enough to squeeze any concessions out of Britain. Quite the opposite. the longer France held on OTL, the worse their position got.

Late '59 through '60, France harbored the hope of aid from Spain. Spain had to get its ducks in a row first. If Carlos had entered the picture a year or two earlier, it's possible Spain might have been able to make a difference, but we're taking him out of the picture altogether. Without the hope of Spanish assistance (which realistically wasn't all that much hope anyhow, but that's easy to say in hindsight), it's possible France accepts defeat in the '60-'61 timeframe.

Europe is pretty much going to be the same. in North America, Florida obviously stays Spanish. At the time, there was a beginning of a naval stores industry there, and the colony was on the verge of stable success. Eliminating the massive disruption to Spanish endeavors there, throw everything that happened OTL out the window. Florida is not automatically going to be a punching bag for any future USA, if such still comes to be. Might still be, but the situation will be different. (edit: I mention this because in most ATL's Florida is always treated the same as OTL's spanish backwater less than nothing presence even if the massive disruption doesn't occur)

What happens to Louisiana? Spain doesn't have a claim to it any more (they had one a century earlier, but France took it away), and there's no reason to give it to them. France might hold on to it, but probably doesn't really want it. I'm thinking Britain simply takes it all. They really only gave it to Spain to induce them to leave the war. With LA in British hands, or in French hands, Spain is going to maintain a presence in eastern Texas. OTL, they pulled back when there was no more Foreign presence on the doorstep. they may put more effort in there, which has future ramifications.

I don't see a reason that the American revolution wouldn't go on, but Spain may not be as inclined to take the war hot, and they won't have the Mississippi River/New Orleans as a means of smuggling in support. They do have the 'mexican' border and Florida. One wonders the role of LA. Britain hasn't had much time to really inundate the region with British subjects. The French inhabitants are likely going to favor the rebels, but if Britain has a firm hold on NO, the mississippi is going to be closed to smuggled support. Without Spain going hot, does France still go hot? Even if France does go hot, is it enough to tip the scales for the rebels?
 
If Spain still enters the American War of Independence on the side of France, they take New Orleans from the British. In OTL, they took West Florida (pretty much the Gulf of New Mexico ports east of New Orleans) from the British. In a timeline where they already have West Florida and don't have New Orleans, they will take New Orleans.
 
What happens to Louisiana? Spain doesn't have a claim to it any more (they had one a century earlier, but France took it away), and there's no reason to give it to them. France might hold on to it, but probably doesn't really want it. I'm thinking Britain simply takes it all. They really only gave it to Spain to induce them to leave the war. With LA in British hands, or in French hands, Spain is going to maintain a presence in eastern Texas. OTL, they pulled back when there was no more Foreign presence on the doorstep. they may put more effort in there, which has future ramifications.

IOTL, Britain did not know France had ceded Louisiana to Spain. That was done in secret (Treaty of Fontainebleau). The treaty of 1763 speaks of the Mississippi as the dividing line between the British and French possessions. The transfer to Spain was only revealed the next year.

It's not clear if Britain had any designs on Louisiana beyond the Mississippi. They may have just focused on the remaining French Caribbean islands, which were much more profitable anyway.
 
IOTL, Britain did not know France had ceded Louisiana to Spain. That was done in secret (Treaty of Fontainebleau). The treaty of 1763 speaks of the Mississippi as the dividing line between the British and French possessions. The transfer to Spain was only revealed the next year.

It's not clear if Britain had any designs on Louisiana beyond the Mississippi. They may have just focused on the remaining French Caribbean islands, which were much more profitable anyway.
Britain was quite aware of France giving Louisiana to Spain. It was Britain's idea (Lord Bute, I believe). France took it a bit further, giving everything east of the Mississippi to Spain, but Britain only acquiesced to everything west. it was 'secret' to the general populace, but the negotiators at the peace table on both sides were well aware of it.
 
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