Spain loses Philippines early....to Mexico

raharris1973

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PoD- 1822- On entering Mexico City, or the eve of victory, Iturbide and his supporters in the Army of Three Guarantees specify that the Plan of Iguala applies to New Spain/Mexico and all its administrative dependencies and sends this pronunciamento to all these areas. Since OTL’s Mexican Empire initially held sway over everything between Oregon & Panama as the inheritance of New Spain, the main difference is that the Mexican Empire claims the Philippines & the rest of the Spanish East Indies from its inception. The Mexican Empire also claims Cuba & Puerto Rico, but the pronunciamento has no net effect there because loyal Spanish troops and fleets operated in strength in the Caribbean.
In the Pacific however, the Mexican Empire is able to make its declaration stick. Up until this moment, the Philippines et al have all been under an intermediate layer of administration under Mexico city, rather than directly controlled from Madrid. More importantly, the Philippines commercial, postal and demographic connections were much closer to Mexico than to Spain, which rarely made use of Indian ocean shipping routes and had no territorial possessions on that ocean. I am not certain if
Iturbide & co remember to include the Philippines because of its usefulness in trading ties to the orient, and the desire to deny any Pacific bases for any reconquista attempt by Madrid. Spanish naval officials on the Pacific coast of Mexico are simply appointed to the Mexican Imperial Navy at the equivalent rank or better. The news takes a few months to reach Manila. Filipino Criollos in Mexico at the time who favor Iturbide’s plan go back to Manila and Guam with the pronunciamento from Mexico City.
The local criollos and other elites on the island go along with these decrees after a degree of debating, fighting and manuevering. At the beginning, they expect and want to be ruled by a Bourbon, just like the Iturbide movement inMexico.
So, the Philippines is broken from Spain 76 years early, and becomes a de facto extension of Latin America. The Mexican Empire and the Mexican republic have little real capacity to defend or closely administer the Spanish East Indies, but neither is Spain very well poised to reconquer the territory. Also, I would presume Britain would tend to look as favorably on independence of the Spanish East Indies as it did on the independence of Spanish America.
The Philippines and rest of the Spanish East Indies are a state within first, the Mexican Empire and then the Mexican Republic. They will be remote districts that tend to make little impact on the Mexican center. Initially, European-descended Criollos will be dominant in the state and church. Post-independence though, Philippine history will diverge as the islands end up more responsive and attuned to political changes in Mexico rather than Spain.
The Philippines will likely become an independent republic before too long passes. Probably, they will break away during the 1830s, when Texas, the Rio Grande and other regions were breaking away. The centrifugal forces that caused those revolts and led to the breakaway of Central America suggest that
even Fliipino Criollos will not find rule from Mexico City compellingly appealing over the long-term. And Mexico will have little capacity or priority to invest in compelling the Philippines and Indies to remain united with Mexico, given their difficulties closer to home.
By 1836 or so, the Philippines and Micronesia are a formally independent unit administered from Manila. Manila’s writ cover the southern half of Luzon, the Visayas, eastern Palawan and northern Mindanao within the archipelago. Other areas are controlled by the Sulu Sultanate, local tribes in the north, and local Datus in Mindanao. In Micronesia, only Guam, and possibly Saipan, are actively administered in any sense by Manila. The rest of Micronesia is sparsely populated and under pre-European style governance mostly. Guam, Saipan and Micronesia would have independence for the taking, but probably don’t bother to take it on a permanent basis.
So from 1836 we have a novel situation. The Philippines are a post-colonial society at a time when most of Asia and Africa is pre-colonial. Parts of the territory Manila formally administers will be little effected by the colonial legacy. However, there will be a central government centered on Manila. It will likely be a Republic, but even if Manila has its own Emperor, it will be under European derived instutions, taking their cues more from the models of Iturbide and Napoleon rather than the Emperors of Asian states.
Manila will continue extensive trade relations with China and Mexico, and become open to British and Dutch trade. Particularly before treaty ports in China proliferate, the Philippines will be an important trade entrepot.
Domestic distrubances over the racial caste system, class interests, political ambition and ideology and numerous ungoverned spaces will be a much bigger threat to any Manila regime for most decades of the 19th century than any external threat. Borders with independent Malay states will probably be vague, disputed and undefined.
The Dutch and British may interve to batter down any trade restrictions a Manila regime tries to impose, but territorial aggradizement in the tropics was not the European style in the 1830s and 1850s. Likewise, Confucian based states like China, Korea, Japan and Vietnam were not pursuing overseas expansion either.
Since the Philippines will be interested in European and American commercial and cultural links, the west will not need to fight or threaten for access in the Philippines in the same way it did in China and Japan. The Philippines will have limited, but interesting relations with its neighbors, the Dutch East Indies, Malay states, Vietnam, China, Japan, Siam and maybe Korea. Filipinos will interact only under such terms as those states allow, knowing they cannot force them to act otherwise.
As in OTL, the French probably begin colonizing southern Vietnam in the 1850s. They may hire many mercenaries for their expeditions from the Philippines.
However, even as high-colonialism becomes popular from the 1880s, the Philippines will likely remain uncolonized precisely because it is a majority Christian country, with many European derived institutions and is easier to deal with on a commercial basis than other regional states. As we get to the turn of the century any debt and trade troubles will lead to American and European threats of gunboat diplomacy against Manila.
However, by that point the Philippines will have fifty years experience of independent statehood, and will accordingly probably have survival skills and legitimacy in western eyes on par with governments in the Caribbean. It will certainly have full diplomatic and commercial relations with the US and Europe before China, Japan or Korea do.
My knowledge of the Philippines is limited, but I can say in broad strokes that over the 19th century power will ultimately diffuse a bit beyond the small numbers of Spanish-descended Criollos. The islands will remain independent. However, I can’t guess at the details of politics, what the borders are in the Sulu sea, if there are any additional secessions that stick, how often there is dictatorial versus parliamentary rule and how much of its priviledge and property the Catholic Church can maintain through 1900. I’d appreciate any thoughts on that.
Also, I haven’t ventured a guess as to how prosperous and developed the islands will be by 1900 and then later in the 20th century. They could do better, the same or somewhat worse than OTL. I’d like your thoughts on how they would do and why, and what their mid-twentieth century level of military capability is likely to be, especially relative to neighboring states and powers.
In a variant on this theme, we could suppose the Philippines remain under Mexico city through the 1840s. That extends Mexicos interest in Pacific trade and naval affairs much further and could result in a larger and more formidable Mexican navy operating on the Mexican coast up through California. Mexico still is not made more likely to hold its northern territories coveted by the US. The US probably would not take any Central or West Pacific territories from Mexico as spoils of war, primarily because of lack of ambition and racial fears, but if the US does, more thinly populated northern and eastern territories like the Marshalls and Marianas are more likely to be annexed than the Philippines itself.
Once the American and European expat culture really increases in Hawaii starts to develop in mid-19th century, it may link up with independent Philippines and Micronesia in a way that did not occur in OTL. Conceivably we could have a period where a white-run Hawaiian Republic contests portions of Micronesia with a Criollo & Mestizo run Philippine Republic, with each side being able to exercise its power more effectively based on proximity, though its not terribly likely as both will have major domestic concern
 
I think Mexico is likely to lose the parts of the Philippines to the Dutch, the Dutch once tried to raid parts of the Philippines, they once tried to invade Luzon I think.
 
Passing the control and loyalty from Spain to Mexico does not necessarily mean Philippines will even join Mexico.

It is actually more feasible and realistic that Philippines break away as an independent nation rather than part of any former Spanish viceroyalty even during this time period.

There are several revolts happening in Philippines OTL this time period. Basi Revolt 1807, which is the closest you can get to a Boston Tea party, Dagohoy Revolt which lasted from 1744 to 1829(which you can get around 3-20k manpower irregular troops). There is also already a social classing structure in the Philippines which you can give reason for races to revolt, reason being racial discrimination, which has been happening since the 16th century.

Spanish America is also in revolt, so Philippines will have ample time setup for defense. All you need is to bump several insulares and middle class to support the masses to revolt during this time period. You can even have part of the Spanish Army/Navy revolt versus the Captain General and control Intramuros much like what happened in the Pule revolt 1840s OTL.
 
The question is what type of Philippines do you want and what kind of national identity these people from the Spanish Indies would posses.

There was a revolt by Andres Novales in 1823.

Make it succeed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andres_Novales

Story wise this Philippines will have to quickly learn to exploit its natural resources and create a sizable navy to protect itself.
 
The question is what type of Philippines do you want and what kind of national identity these people from the Spanish Indies would posses.

There was a revolt by Andres Novales in 1823.

Make it succeed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andres_Novales

Story wise this Philippines will have to quickly learn to exploit its natural resources and create a sizable navy to protect itself.

This can work also.

You are correct on the exploitation of resources. Philippines has all the necessary resources locally available to be a 19 th century industrial power with the exception of rubber and oil, Which is available in their backyard Borneo and Malaya.
 
Ideally Sabah[Oil] would be part of the Philippines if the Sultanate of Sulu is assimilated by the Philippine Government in this timeline. Maybe grab Tarakan Island, I heard that the crude oil there is 'sweet'.

But, in the end this Philippines will be under the mercy of the European Powers. The good thing is nobody wants the other to have it, so the Man in Manila must be able to play the game in a very creative way so that this post-colonial country surrounded by pre-colonials be able to grab all the stuff it needs to grow into a proper power.
 
I suspect it will go very similarly to what happened when Spain lost the UFCA to Mexico, it very quickly falls out of Mexicos grip into being an independent state that may or may not collapse into several independent states.
 

raharris1973

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the environment in the neighborhood in the 1820s

Per Kasumigenx:
I think Mexico is likely to lose the parts of the Philippines to the Dutch, the Dutch once tried to raid parts of the Philippines, they once tried to invade Luzon I think.

Very interesting. So this is past the point where some of your favorite sultanates can seize the islands?

I would ask though, when was the last Dutch invasion of the Philippines, and what parts, if any, would they be most likely to take from the 1820s onward?

The spheres of influence were being stabilized between Britain and the Netherlands at the time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Dutch_Treaty_of_1824

Singapore had also just been founded.

The Vyner Dynasty of the "White Rajahs" was soon to begin in Sarawak on Borneo (1841).

I guess the question is if any of the Philippines, and particular Luzon, is an easy enough target for the Dutch? On the one hand, the Dutch were past their prime as great conquerors. On the other hand, they did continue expansion until 1900 within the Indonesian archipelago against various sultanates and simpler polities.

I instinctively think that the places the Dutch went after in OTL were all easier targets that an independent, Mexico City or Manila-based Philippines would be. Warring with a Catholic country with some western institutions and knowledge of European diplomacy could be a trickier enterprise.

On the other hand, the prior development of Luzon may make the prize worth the cost.
 
I think Mexico is likely to lose the parts of the Philippines to the Dutch, the Dutch once tried to raid parts of the Philippines, they once tried to invade Luzon I think.
In the 19th century? I have a hard time believing that. I doubt the Dutch would be capable of doing that. 17th or 18th century, of course they could and would, but in the 19th century the Netherlands was a rather impoverished nation, that wouldn't dare attack another European country.
 
Per Kasumigenx:
Very interesting. So this is past the point where some of your favorite sultanates can seize the islands?

I would ask though, when was the last Dutch invasion of the Philippines, and what parts, if any, would they be most likely to take from the 1820s onward?

The spheres of influence were being stabilized between Britain and the Netherlands at the time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Dutch_Treaty_of_1824

Singapore had also just been founded.

The Vyner Dynasty of the "White Rajahs" was soon to begin in Sarawak on Borneo (1841).

I guess the question is if any of the Philippines, and particular Luzon, is an easy enough target for the Dutch? On the one hand, the Dutch were past their prime as great conquerors. On the other hand, they did continue expansion until 1900 within the Indonesian archipelago against various sultanates and simpler polities.

I instinctively think that the places the Dutch went after in OTL were all easier targets that an independent, Mexico City or Manila-based Philippines would be. Warring with a Catholic country with some western institutions and knowledge of European diplomacy could be a trickier enterprise.

On the other hand, the prior development of Luzon may make the prize worth the cost.

The Dutch wont have the resources to conquer Philippines unless you do it an earlier timeline wherein in the Dutch are more powerful than any Great power. It is actually more feasible and believable to have Mexico control Philippines than Dutch control the Philippines.

If you look at OTL,

Dutch manpower, they had around 2M at this time. http://www.populstat.info/Europe/netherlc.htm

The Dutch were too busy with several wars at this time,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Java_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Padri_War

If the Dutch do go north, it will to go through the British, White Rajahs and Brunei and Moro Sultanates, which was still powerful at this time.

Besides the Dutch already tried in OTL to conquer the Philippines, and failed misreably even with superior and more advanced forces during the time when the Dutch were one of the Great powers : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_La_Naval_de_Manila
 
Most realistically, the Philippines might end up as a British protectorate unless there is a PoD that will allow the Qing Dynasty in China to not decline and remain powerful enough to make them a protectorate.
 

katchen

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I think that we're all forgetting here the reason why Iturbite is thrying so hard to hang onto the Philippines for Mexico. IOTL, the Philippines is known to be well endowed with gold and silver and has extensive gold and silver mines NOW (see philippinemining.imaginet.com.ph/.../philippine-silver-production). And Kasimigeux will be our resideent expert on this, bui don't think these Philippine silver deposits have been discovered yet. The Mexican silver trade is still a gold mine (silver mine:D) when it comes to trading for Chinese goods like silk and ceramics and tea, although the Philippines and even Mexico are good for growing that new product, opium that the Chinese will part with their stuff to get. Why would the Philippines go independent and cut the throat of the goose that keeps laying the golden eggs?
Zacatecas and Querataro and Tlaxcala keep supplying Manila with those minted "fat Buddha" coins the Chinese merchants like so much. If the business model ain't broke, don't fix it.Just see how far it can be expanded beyond one ship per year!
Yeah! I think the Philippines are going to be a real cash cow for Mexico regardless of what kind of turmoil is going on in Mexico itself. Mexico will have a lot less control over Chinese immigration to the Philippines and maybe even California and Mexico itself now. A larger and growing Overseas Chinese ppopulation in California and Mesico would be a major unanticipated consequence of Mexico hanging onto the Philippines. As well as a major trade in Chinese silks and tea between Mexico and the US.
"
 

raharris1973

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Presuming Mexico holds onto the PI for more than a decade..

..as Katchen suggests....

What are the odds that America takes the PI in Mexican-American war? Do the French perhaps take them during the Pastry war of the 1830s or the intervention of the 1860s?

I think American-Mexican confrontation is pretty inevitable in the 1830s and 1840s. However, knock-on effects of a Mexican Philippines would include a larger Mexican Navy, especially in the Pacific. This could change the tactical and operational interactions between the Americans and Mexicans a bit when they do fight.

And, while someone suggested this possibly leading to a Mexican Hawaii, a trans-Pacific Mexico could make the US very interested in Hawaii 50 years earlier than OTL.
 
Could the Philippines also serve as a source of manpower for Mexico?

So, inspired by Texas' old name of Philippinas Nuevas: Might Mexico try to settle Filipinos along the Gulf Coast between the Sabine and Nueces Rivers instead of inviting in gringo settlers?

Additionally or alternatively, is there any chance that a government in Mexico C. tries to develop Northern California by settling either Filipinos or Cantonese (via Manila) there?
 
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