Spain keeps Mexico. How do the USA expand?

[Ricardolindo]

From what I know, Spain only lost Mexico because the conservatives led by Iturbide defected to the rebel side because of a liberal coup in Spain. What if the coup didn't happen, failed or was reversed shortly afterwards? How would the USA expand? From what I know, Spain was always reluctant to sell colonies and would be even more, at this time, since it had already lost South America. It's debatable whether Spain would have allowed as many Anglo settlers in Texas as Mexico did. Even if they did, any rebellion by those settlers would be crushed. I also highly doubt, that, the USA could defeat Spain, militarily, at this time. What do you think?

 

[Justinianus]

The original agreement to allow Americans into Texas was done with Spain.

 

[Ricardolindo]

The original agreement to allow Americans into Texas was done with Spain.

Usually, Spain did not allow settlers. Stephen Austin was only allowed in because he knew someone who could convince the governor. Regardless, in our timeline, the Texans only won at San Jacinto because of Santa Anna's incompetence. They could never have defeated Spain.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The original agreement to allow Americans into Texas was done with Spain.

Yeah but it was moderated and the Spanish actually had the power to police the region.

 

[Mark E.]

Fifty four forty or fight?

 

[Justinianus]

Yeah but it was moderated and the Spanish actually had the power to police the region.

Really? Because it seems to me, with Spain losing South America, that they'd be holding Mexico by the skin of their teeth.

 

[Historyman 14]

Really? Because it seems to me, with Spain losing South America, that they'd be holding Mexico by the skin of their teeth.

I honesty doubt Spain could rule Mexico for very long. Spain had been destroyed in the Peninsular War, never ending infighting between liberals and conservatives, rebellion, and more.

Texas itself was an backwater for Spain.

Give it time. The instability of Spain and civil wars would eventuality see either Mexico bailing on Spain, or the USA marching in.

 

[Justinianus]

I honesty doubt Spain could rule Mexico for very long. Spain had been destroyed in the Peninsular War, never ending infighting between liberals and conservatives, rebellion, and more.

Texas itself was an backwater for Spain.

Give it time. The instability of Spain and civil wars would eventuality see either Mexico bailing on Spain, or the USA marching in.

Agreed.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Really? Because it seems to me, with Spain losing South America, that they'd be holding Mexico by the skin of their teeth.

OP's suggested POD would give Spain a pretty firm grasp on the region. What happens on the other side of the Caribbean doesn't necessarily have too much impact on New Spain. In fact quite the opposite, without the need to fight in Mexico as well, Spain stands a good chance at keeping Peru (which it nearly did OTL).

 

[Ivan Lupo]

The Americans might have been able to surprise themselves with the success they could have had against Spain. Even if they held Mexico, by the skin of their teeth as Justinianus pointed out, the Carlist Wars were going to be upon Spain soon and I doubt Spain could have held onto Mexico then. Spain could have considered selling a lot of Mexico off to the US then for some quick cash to fight this new war.

 

[Justinianus]

OP's suggested POD would give Spain a pretty firm grasp on the region. What happens on the other side of the Caribbean doesn't necessarily have too much impact on New Spain. In fact quite the opposite, without the need to fight in Mexico as well, Spain stands a good chance at keeping Peru (which it nearly did OTL).

OP states that South America is lost. I'm going with that. Plus Spain was dealing with a lot of crap back home, which is partly why they lost Florida.

 

[Ricardolindo]

OP's suggested POD would give Spain a pretty firm grasp on the region. What happens on the other side of the Caribbean doesn't necessarily have too much impact on New Spain. In fact quite the opposite, without the need to fight in Mexico as well, Spain stands a good chance at keeping Peru (which it nearly did OTL).

Peru was sorrounded by rebels. The United Provinces, Chile and Gran Colombia did all they could to destroy the Spanish stronghold there.

 

[Historyman 14]

The Americans might have been able to surprise themselves with the success they could have had against Spain. Even if they held Mexico, by the skin of their teeth as Justinianus pointed out, the Carlist Wars were going to be upon Spain soon and I doubt Spain could have held onto Mexico then. Spain could have considered selling a lot of Mexico off to the US then for some quick cash to fight this new war.

That's the madness of Post-Peninsular War Spain for you. If anything, Spain could very well as here mention, force itself hard to sell Mexico part by part to America for money, till America has everything as in OTL plus some.

 

[Historyman 14]

Peru was sorrounded by rebels. The United Provinces, Chile and Gran Colombia did all they could to destroy the Spanish stronghold there.

Pretty much. It became a matter of when and Peru was going to have Independence force onto itself whatever they like it, or not.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Really? Because it seems to me, with Spain losing South America, that they'd be holding Mexico by the skin of their teeth.

Not nessicerily. If Spain processes the lessons of the South American revolts and adopts a similar strategy of reconciling with the Creole elites in Mexico by bringing their status and power in line with the Penninsulars within the casta system to form an alliance of the upper and middle class against popular agitation from the mestizo and native peons (like they did vs. the slaves in Cuba. Maybe as a result of Hidalgo's revolutionaries actually getting into Mexico City rather than withdrawing and creating a spectacle of anarchy and looting that spooks the conservative church elite, military, and landowners), than they could easily placate the powers that be and establish a firm Loyalist presence. Especially in the coastal regions that prosper under the Bourbon Reforms and the mining/cash crop areas that depend on trade with Spain for their prosperity.

Now, they're liable in the long run to face problems with separatists in the North, so I imagine it will come to violent blows with the US as tensions grow and independent minded Californians and Texans make common cause with Anglo squatters, but Spain Old and New can really give Washington an uphill battle. For one thing, the Spanish Navy would make any attempt to take the Vera Cruz shortcut to Mexico City impossable, so to get a decisive occupation youd need to slog your way down by land...

 

[Justinianus]

If Spain processes the lessons of the South American revolts

That's a pretty big if...

 

[Ricardolindo]

I honesty doubt Spain could rule Mexico for very long. Spain had been destroyed in the Peninsular War, never ending infighting between liberals and conservatives, rebellion, and more.

Texas itself was an backwater for Spain.

Give it time. The instability of Spain and civil wars would eventuality see either Mexico bailing on Spain, or the USA marching in.

Really? Because it seems to me, with Spain losing South America, that they'd be holding Mexico by the skin of their teeth.

The Americans might have been able to surprise themselves with the success they could have had against Spain. Even if they held Mexico, by the skin of their teeth as Justinianus pointed out, the Carlist Wars were going to be upon Spain soon and I doubt Spain could have held onto Mexico then. Spain could have considered selling a lot of Mexico off to the US then for some quick cash to fight this new war.

That's the madness of Post-Peninsular War Spain for you. If anything, Spain could very well as here mention, force itself hard to sell Mexico part by part to America for money, till America has everything as in OTL plus some.

Spain was able to keep Cuba and Puerto Rico for very long.

 

[Ivan Lupo]

That's the madness of Post-Peninsular War Spain for you. If anything, Spain could very well as here mention, force itself hard to sell Mexico part by part to America for money, till America has everything as in OTL plus some.

Which could be bad for the US. If there's this sudden fire sale of American territory Spain is selling, what's to say Spain doesn't turn around and sell other parts of Mexico to, say, Great Britain? If I were Britain, I wouldn't mind taking California off Spain's hands. They have the navy, the money, the infrastructure, and the population to do it too. California at least is very fertile and has a superior natural harbor in San Francisco, and the British love themselves superior natural harbors occupying strategic geographic locations.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

That's a pretty big if...

They managed to do it as far as Cuba is concerned. It's probably not over even odds of happening in time, but especially if the Mexican conservatives/elite are uncertain about their ability to hang on to their privlage and property without Spanish protection and stability, than there's fair odds they can be convinced to kiss the ring

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Plus Spain was dealing with a lot of crap back home, which is partly why they lost Florida.

Yes, Spain was dealing with the Riego Revolt. OP has that quickly crushed as the POD.

the Carlist Wars were going to be upon Spain soon

Way to kill the butterflies with a hammer. A set back for Spanish liberals like a defeat of the Riego Revolt could mean Carlos gets the throne without a war (that's not guaranteed mind you, nor is it unlikely that there could instead be another liberal revolt, but assuming things go OTL in spite of the POD is lazy).

Peru was sorrounded by rebels. The United Provinces, Chile and Gran Colombia did all they could to destroy the Spanish stronghold there.

The Chileans were dealing with a Mapuche-Loyalist insurgency and the United Provinces hadn't been able to push through Paraguay. It came down to Gran Colombia vs Spain OTL, and in a TL where the Spanish aren't desperately fighting in Mexico, and rather can potentially use Mexico as a staging ground for (another) invasion of Gran Colombia, I'd say it's far from a closed case.