Spain keeps Mexico and war with the USA

So, if Spain keeps Mexico, and the suff north of it
1.How will this affect Spain?
2.If there is a war, who do you reckon will win?
3.Will there be any American immigration in to New Spain (will Spain get US settlers in?)
4.If there is immigration, would a war still start?
 
Well, how exactly do they keep it?

Anyway, on principle Spain refused to accept settlers. Even Moses Austin only made it since he knew someone who could convince the governor. With stuff like the Long Expedition, the Spanish were aware the Americans wanted the land. As for an eventual war, it's quite likely, but how and when it also depends on how things go.
 
More than Spanish keeping Mexico ,the real question is how much of America does it keep and how much unrest is in it. I mean, if Spain barely keeps Mexico after all the revolts (or "liberation wars", it depends on who you ask), Spain's piece of a cake. If it's "business as usual", I think Spain could be defeated but in a longer and hardest war but, if Spanish America develops (it depends on the POD you set), we'd be talking about USA against one of the World's Great Powers.
 
Remember that even though Spain wasn't that great after Napolean, it was still a a force to be reckoned with. Their navy could probably pummel the Americans and their land forces could take care of the US Army. There's also the slight detail of the Spaniards being quite friendly with the British during that period.
 
Remember that even though Spain wasn't that great after Napolean, it was still a a force to be reckoned with. Their navy could probably pummel the Americans and their land forces could take care of the US Army. There's also the slight detail of the Spaniards being quite friendly with the British during that period.

post War of 1812, not so much... the US Army became professional, the US Navy more so, while the Spanish were having internal problems serious enough to trigger 1st Carlist War (1833 and after) and those divisions are already building momentum and this is the same Spain that felt weak enough that it saw selling Florida to the US as the best option in 1819.

So while we can disagree on how effective the post Napoleonic Spanish military is it would seem that the Spanish thought their position was poor regarding the US.
 
London is likely to avoid conflicts within a few years of the end of Napolean. Spain will still be battered and likely trying to hold onto her Empire at that point - American pests trying to take unpopulated lands will likely be able to do so for cash payments or one-time border changes. California and Oregon not withstanding much of the land that became American would likely still do so in an ATL. Should a treaty be written and more encroachment occur, however, then Spain will react, perhaps during is Carlist wars.
 
I'd think that, one thing for sure, if any Anglo-rebellion in Texas still happens as OTL, there won't an accompanying fluke of San Jacinto, and Treaty of Velasco is just laughable. Considering those were key to escalate the tensions that led to war, then it'd have to be through something else.

London is likely to avoid conflicts within a few years of the end of Napolean. Spain will still be battered and likely trying to hold onto her Empire at that point - American pests trying to take unpopulated lands will likely be able to do so for cash payments or one-time border changes. California and Oregon not withstanding much of the land that became American would likely still do so in an ATL. Should a treaty be written and more encroachment occur, however, then Spain will react, perhaps during is Carlist wars.

I'd doubt it. Spain may do a better job than Mexico in keeping them out. Who knows. Still, I don't think we still have a set PoD to start discussing all this. If you can butterfly Moses Austin's deal being accepted, so they start coming over? Don't know how Anglo immigration was before, but after the Old Three Hundred came, it certainly skyrocketed.

Which reminds me, would Spain implement the Empresario System? That was also key in bringing in Americans into the area.
 
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