Spain Joins the Axis: What is its fate?

Spain’s economy was non existent due to the Spanish Civil War, they did not have the capability to go to war with anyone nor did they have the capability to defend themselves. In the end this would just make Germany’s situation worst as they would have to keep more soldiers in the West which would give the Soviets a large advantage. Notice how the Germans had a hard time maintaining enough soldiers in the west to defend coastal areas in the event of a amphibious invasion? You just made this problem worst. What would happen after the war? Spain is likely to be occupied by the allies either that or it switches sides after another civil war due to the fact that Franco just went batshit insane and had his country fight another war.
 
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The Spanish Civil War starts up again with a well supplied and unified front against Franco
Requiring German assistance, the manpower relocation will be felt on the Eastern Front
Franco won't survive the war.Post war, Stalin really didn't have any interest in spending resources on Western Europe because he had to prop up communist governments in Eastern Europe. By default Spain becomes a democracy and benefits from the Marshall plan.
 
Wouldn't Spain be forced to apologize not only for WW2 and the Spanish Civil War, but also the Spanish Inquisition? And wouldn't the Spanish Inquisition be seen in this scenario as both bigoted and the logically-linked and done action of an Axis nation?

I don't think so. Even Japan wasn't enforced to do that. Germany was only nation which was enforced to admit WW2 war crimes but I think that no one didn't bother with its earlier crimes. So whatever war crimes Spain would had done, these probably would had put under carpet and slowly forgotten and Spain might be even denial same way as Japan is denial over Nanking and Korean comfort women.
 
So say that Franco is convinced to join the Axis and declares war on the Allies in late 1940, leading to the fall of Gibraltar and a tougher Med campaign. Obviously the Axis is still going to collapse, and maybe by 1943 Spain itself will have been partially invaded ala Italy, while the Third Reich and its Axis allies collapse is all but assured by 1945 still. However, with Franco having willfully joined the Axis, does he get to remain in power? Will the Allies simply overthrow Falange? Who could even govern Spain in the aftermath.

As a bonus, do we see a civil war like post-war Greece between resurgent Republicans and Monarchists?
Just to talk about the current state of spain in the late 1930s/early 40s to show how little this changes anything apart from maybe an extra year taking spain max,

Spain is in debt to Germany (and iirc Italh to a more limited extent) after their support during the civil war

Industry and cities are bombed out

People are jobless due to the previous statement

The economy is just starting to recover

Their army likely couldn't fund or support much in terms of military operations, with Gibraltar and some incursion into the Mediterranean by marines (most likely Operation Hercules as the threat of the royal navy is no longer holding an invasion of malta back)

And finally AMERICA

Afterwards,

Franco is defeated and spain occupied by late 1943-mid 1944

We may see a split of spain if the leaders of the west and east are as high as they were when making border proposals for splitting nations, but it's unlikely

A republic and potentially authoritarian one (maybe even a military dictatorship) is set up with western collaborators

There's a chance spain gets swooped up in the Marshall Plan

And spain would take about a decade longer to financially recover by entering ww2


Long story short they stand no chance the british and american industrial capacities and manpower would crush spain into paste and there are several easy points to invade from
 
Just to talk about the current state of spain in the late 1930s/early 40s to show how little this changes anything apart from maybe an extra year taking spain max,

Spain is in debt to Germany (and iirc Italh to a more limited extent) after their support during the civil war

Industry and cities are bombed out

People are jobless due to the previous statement

The economy is just starting to recover

Their army likely couldn't fund or support much in terms of military operations, with Gibraltar and some incursion into the Mediterranean by marines (most likely Operation Hercules as the threat of the royal navy is no longer holding an invasion of malta back)

And finally AMERICA

Afterwards,

Franco is defeated and spain occupied by late 1943-mid 1944

We may see a split of spain if the leaders of the west and east are as high as they were when making border proposals for splitting nations, but it's unlikely

A republic and potentially authoritarian one (maybe even a military dictatorship) is set up with western collaborators

There's a chance spain gets swooped up in the Marshall Plan

And spain would take about a decade longer to financially recover by entering ww2


Long story short they stand no chance the british and american industrial capacities and manpower would crush spain into paste and there are several easy points to invade from
Some of this I might be wrong about ofc
 

ahmedali

Banned
The Spanish Civil War starts up again with a well supplied and unified front against Franco
Requiring German assistance, the manpower relocation will be felt on the Eastern Front
Franco won't survive the war.Post war, Stalin really didn't have any interest in spending resources on Western Europe because he had to prop up communist governments in Eastern Europe. By default Spain becomes a democracy and benefits from the Marshall plan.
Civil war is less likely


You will have a military coup led by the Carlists and the royalists who will depose Franco and sign peace with the allies
 
Spain’s economy was non existent due to the Spanish Civil War,
Please will you provide some statistics to support that statement? Preferably from a source of repute. My source is International Historical Statistics, Europe 1750-1993, fourth edition by B.R. Mitchell.

If your statement was true Spain's national income in 1940 would have been zero per cent of what it had been in 1935. In reality it was 74%. of what it had been in 1935.

Spanish National Income 1929-54.png

If Spain's economy was non existent in 1940 why was coal production 32% more than it had been in 1935?

Spanish Coal Production 1929-45.png

Spain produced considerably less food in 1940 than it did in 1935, but considerably less food is a lot more than little or no food, which one would expect a non existent economy to produce.

C2 Main Cereal, Potato and Sugar Beet production for Spain 1929-45.png

I have another spreadsheet in preparation which shows that Spain produced a whopping 595,000 metric tons of crude steel in 1935 and a paltry 804,000 metric tons of crude steel in 1940. This was a pathetic increase of 35%. So the Spanish Civil War wiped out the Country's steel industry. Surely, an economy that was non existent because of a 3-year civil war which had only ended a year ago would be producing little or no steel. Instead it produced more steel than it did in the last year of peace.

Spain's economy was severely damaged by the Spanish Civil War and wouldn't be fully recovered until the early 1950s. It was by no stretch of the imagination non-existent because of the Spanish Civil War.
 
Spain's economy was severely damaged by the Spanish Civil War and wouldn't be fully recovered until the early 1950s.

It was by no stretch of the imagination non-existent because of the Spanish Civil War. —> Stop being Pedantic
You see the bolden words? Thats what I meant by Non-Existent. It doesn’t take a genius to figure that out. Spain was by all means not capable of fighting another war.
 
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Spain is in debt to Germany (and IIRC Italy to a more limited extent) after their support during the civil war
I can believe that. Do you have any statistics from a reliable source to prove it?
The economy is just starting to recover.
I agree, with the caveat that Spain's economic recovery was more advanced in 1940 than people think. See Post 67. However, as I wrote in that post it wouldn't be fully recovered until the early 1950s.
 
You see the bolden words? That's what I meant by Non-Existent. It doesn’t take a genius to figure that out.
One can't stop being pedantic when one isn't being pedantic to begin with. I wasn't being pedantic to begin with.

None-Existent doesn't mean severely damaged. It's like saying Sodium Nitrate is the same as Sodium Nitrite.

On this forum I've learned to write what I mean and mean what I write. The hard way! I advise you to learn by my mistakes.
Spain was by all means not capable of fighting a war.
For what it's worth I think that Spain joining the Axis in the summer of 1940 wouldn't have lead to an Axis victory. It will be a thorn in Britain's side until the end of 1941, but after the United States is in the war it's the proper application of superior force and Francisco Franco could have been hanging from a lamppost beside Benito Mussolini in 1945 ITTL.
 
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Though 212 million certainly isn't much it is still a factor in economics, and to be fair I did think it was higher and around potentially 400 million
According to this website (http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist-graph.htm) the exchange rate in 1940 was $4.03 to £1 Sterling. So $212 will be about £53 million. It would be useful to know how much interest Spain was paying and what the repayment terms were.

To put that into perspective the British National Debt (according to the British Annual Abstract of Statistics) at 31st March 1939 was £7,899.2 million. I chose the debt at that date because it's the nearest to when the Spanish Civil War ended (1st April 1939) than 31st March 1940 when it was £10,366.4 million. £230.0 million was spent servicing the National Debt in the 1938-39 financial year which was 16% of Government Expenditure (£1,408.2 million).

Admittedly the UK was a richer country with a nearly double the population. However, £53 million is only 0.67% of the British National debt of £7,899.2 million at 31st March 1939 and rising. I'll have to see if Mitchell and the Spanish equivalent of the British Office of National Statistics have any information that will help.
 
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According to this website (http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist-graph.htm) the exchange rate in 1940 was $4.03 to £1 Sterling. So $212 will be about £53 million. It would be useful to know how much interest Spain was paying and what the repayment terms were.

To put that into perspective the British National Debt (according to the British Annual Abstract of Statistics) at 31st March 1939 was £7,899.2 million. I chose the debt at that date because it's the near to when the Spanish Civil War ended (1st April 1939) than 31st March 1940 when it was £10,366.4 million. £230.0 million was spent servicing the National Debt in the 1938-39 financial year which was 16% of Government Expenditure (£1,408.2 million).

Admittedly the UK was a richer country with a nearly double the population. However, £53 million is only 0.67% of the British National debt of £7,899.2 million at 31st March 1939 and rising. I'll have to see if Mitchell and the Spanish equivalent of the British Office of National Statistics have any information that will help.
I see

Also I am not the best when it comes to economic knowledge, I'm more tuned to military tactics so this insight from you certainly does help
 

DougM

Donor
A few thoughts..
Yes you were being pedantic. You and everyone involved knew full well no one was suggesting Spain had 0 GDP. If one farmer sells 1 tomato to one visitor for on US penny then Spain has SOME economy. But Spain was NOT in good shape in 1940 and could in no way aford to build up a military to defend itself with.

As for Gibraltar…. After the end of WW2 it will go to England… Forever.
Spain probably gets per entry divided as well. It has a long history of not wanting yo be unified.

one question i have never looked into but wonder about is.. Would spain have been useful for Airbases? Not sure how the ranges work out.
 
one question i have never looked into but wonder about is.. Would spain have been useful for Airbases? Not sure how the ranges work out.
Well Spanish airbases would be useful for bombing Gibraltar and for having planes searching for convoys.

Other than that not really.
 

DougM

Donor
I was more or less wondering about use by the Wallies after they invade. (which they will have to do to get control of the Med back )
Even if they airbases are no closer to anything of interest (Such as Germany or oil fields or whatever) if the about the same distance it would be useful to be able yo attack from different directions forcing Germany to watch multiple routes?

Because other the protecting the Med/Gibraltar I don't see much advantage the Wallies get from invading Spain. As noted it is not exactly easy to invade France/Germany from Spain. It is not even easy to supply troops in France from Spain as the transport network between Spain and France sucked.
So i am just trying to figure out if there is an Advantage to the Wallies.
Or perhaps Spain Joining Germany is not realy as negative as we first thought? As long as Germany does not send many troops or supplies into Spain does it really hert Germany? A few Fighters/patrol/bombers to make life in the MED hard. A bit of help invading Gibraltar then pull the ground troops put and let Spain sink or swim on its own. Germany gets to make live in the Med EXTREEMLY hard for the Wallies with minimal cost.
Now if Germany tries to occupy/protect Spain then it is spreading itself way to thin. But realky does Germany have to help Spain? And if they don't does invading Spain in anyway help the Walkies against Germany?
 

ahmedali

Banned
Wouldn't Spain be forced to give up all its claims to Gibraltar permanently?

Not only Gibraltar but also the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands will be ceded to Britain

Equatorial Guinea is divided between France and Portugal

Western Sahara, Avni, Spanish Morocco, Ceuta and Melilla were granted to French Morocco

Olivenza will be returned to Portugal and Llívia will be ceded to France

Llívia is a Spanish village in France.
 
Gibraltar is enlarged significantly and bordered by the Hozgargante on one side and the Guadarranque on the other.

Galicia to Portugal.

Catalonia may go independent.

Otherwise Western Sahara to France, Baleric Islands and Equitorial Guinea to the UK, Canary Islands to the US.
 
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