Spain joins the axis and looses. What happens to it?

Lets say, for one reason or another, Spain joins the axis and looses. Perhaps they see that the axis is winning so thry decide its safe enough to jump on board or whatever.

But then they loose. What do the allies punish Spain? Here are some ideas.

- They pay reparations to France, Andorra, the UK and Portugal
- Independent Catalonia and Basque state
- Galicia is ceded to Portugal
- Rif, Ceuta, Melila and the various exclaves ceded to French Morocco, possibly with all ethnic Spaniards expelled.
-Equitorial Guinea ceded to Britain, Portugal or France

And whatever the punishments, how would it change the cold war? Would Spain join NATO earlier? What would happen to Franco and his administration?
 
Presumably there's either a coup led by the king, or Franco gets tossed out on his ass by a WAllied invasion. Either way, first thing is the Falangists are probably out, a semi-stable monarchy/republic is in. Spain probably loses various enclaves to France, as well as having to pay some reparations to Britain.
 
Presumably there's either a coup led by the king, or Franco gets tossed out on his ass by a WAllied invasion. Either way, first thing is the Falangists are probably out, a semi-stable monarchy/republic is in. Spain probably loses various enclaves to France, as well as having to pay some reparations to Britain.

Along the way the Communists create a great deal of trouble. In the second half of the 1940s OTL there was a attempt to start a revolt and guerrilla war in Spain.
 

Ian_W

Banned
What would happen to Franco and his administration?

What happens to Franco is the same thing that happened to Mussolini.

You get a Government in Exile that becomes the post-Franco democratic government, possibly with the return of the monarchy on top (depending whether they are seen as collaborators or opponents to Franco).

Things also depend how the war went - if Spain got reconquered like Italy or if it surrendered like Norway.

With the Americans running the show, neither reparations nor massive border adjustments will be a thing. They are more likely to put pressure on the post-France government to let Spanish Morocco be independent than give it to the French colonial empire.
 
Spain is losing its colonies for sure.

Spanish Morocco, minus Ceuta and Melilla, is placed under French control, probably strapped to French Morocco.

Spanish Sahara is probably placed under French control. Possibly split between Morocco and Mauritania.

Spanish Guinea might be placed under UN mandate, or French control. Bioko (and possibly even Annobon) might be placed under British control.

As for the mainland, whatever is left of Franco and his government is going to be on trial. The rest will be placed under Allied military occupation. As for Catalonia, the Basque Country and so on, there may be a series of referenda on independence or remaining part of Spain.

Possibly there will be a referendum on being a republic or restoring the monarchy as well, much like the referenda on keeping the monarchy in Italy and Belgium.
 
What happens to Franco is the same thing that happened to Mussolini.

You get a Government in Exile that becomes the post-Franco democratic government, possibly with the return of the monarchy on top (depending whether they are seen as collaborators or opponents to Franco).

Things also depend how the war went - if Spain got reconquered like Italy or if it surrendered like Norway.

With the Americans running the show, neither reparations nor massive border adjustments will be a thing. They are more likely to put pressure on the post-France government to let Spanish Morocco be independent than give it to the French colonial empire.

Yeah, especially given that Morocco has a clsoe place in the USa's heart.

Beyond that, it all depends what happens within Spain and if any other conflicts breaks out. It could mean a longer war for sure and not sure on the consequences of that. Would make North Africa harder
 

Ian_W

Banned
Would make North Africa harder

Here's a scenario.

With terrible disregard to how Spain is going to get food and fuel, Franco joins the Axis in August 1940. Gib gets invested and conquered in winter 1940. The British occupy the Canary Islands.

The RN reinforces Malta, which repels a German paradrop in March 1941. The Balkans are invaded as a prequel to Russia, resulting in the loss of Greece (but not Crete). Barbarossa happens on schedule.

The loss of Gib forces all of North Africa to be supplied around the Cape. Malta has to be resupplied with Pedestal convoys, which bleed the RN heavily but keep the island supplied.

The Africa Korps lets the Italians recover, and they push close to Alexandria but - limited by fuel and other supplies - don't get there.

December 7 1941 sees the USA fully in the war. US air groups go to Egypt to support the British.

Mainland Portugal is occupied by the Axis in early 1942. American air bases are built on the Canaries to support a potential return to Europe via a series of air bases in Africa.
 
Remember there was a Spanish Republican government in Exile. If Franco decides to join in on the Axis, it is going to give these guys plenty of legitimacy as the true government of Spain. So I see post-war them becoming a republic.
 
The WAllies/Soviets might back opposing sides then.

Might be as in France of Yugoslavia, where the Communists have the best organized of multiple underground armies. DeGaulles government managed to get control and prevent a civil war in France, but I would not predict what might happen in Spain, between the underground factions and the arriving Free Spanish army.
 
Presumably there's either a coup led by the king, or Franco gets tossed out on his ass by a WAllied invasion.
Monarchy didn't come back until the 1970s

As for Catalonia, the Basque Country and so on, there may be a series of referenda on independence or remaining part of Spain.
Basque and Catalan independence might stir up reunification movements in France given the populations on the French side of Borders. Would France really want to even have an opinion of independent Catalonia and Basque republics ?
 
Even if there is a civil war how would the Communists go about resupplying themselves given there only borders will be with anti-communist powers

They won't have significant outside help. Local groups will acquire what they can fighting the collapsing coalition Franoco had. Once that is over it's whatever they have control of as the Allied sponsored coalition attempts to take control.
 
Even if there is a civil war how would the Communists go about resupplying themselves given there only borders will be with anti-communist powers

Same way the Partisans got their supplies: by being the most coherent and powerful rebel faction and convincing the WAllies to help them.
 
Spain may be a basket case. Catalonia would attempt a quaisai independace/nuetrality, the Basque will attempt the same. There will be the several right wing parties of the former Nationalist coalition of Franco. The Communists & other leftists, and whatever group the Allies are sponsoring as the Free Spanish government.

I expect as soon as the last German soldier departs the Communists will put their priority on marginalizing the others. They will be handicapped after the 1937-39 experience the others will not trust the Communists. The Allied sponsored government won't be able to retain power using just few centerist parties. They will have to work out a deal with the Monarchists, Catholics, & Separatists.
 
Presumably there's either a coup led by the king, or Franco gets tossed out on his ass by a WAllied invasion. Either way, first thing is the Falangists are probably out, a semi-stable monarchy/republic is in. Spain probably loses various enclaves to France, as well as having to pay some reparations to Britain.
There was no king at that time in Spain.
 
Lets say, for one reason or another, Spain joins the axis and looses. Perhaps they see that the axis is winning so thry decide its safe enough to jump on board or whatever.

But then they loose. What do the allies punish Spain? Here are some ideas.

- They pay reparations to France, Andorra, the UK and Portugal
- Independent Catalonia and Basque state
- Galicia is ceded to Portugal
- Rif, Ceuta, Melila and the various exclaves ceded to French Morocco, possibly with all ethnic Spaniards expelled.
-Equitorial Guinea ceded to Britain, Portugal or France

And whatever the punishments, how would it change the cold war? Would Spain join NATO earlier? What would happen to Franco and his administration?

I don't think the land grab would be that intensive. Look at Italy. It only lost a small amount of land to Croatia and France. Maybe its colonies would have gone to other countries but most of the country would remain intact.
 
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