Spain Great Power Status Restored, feasible?

Would this be a feasible timeline?

-Civil War over in 37 with Franco winning, Spain saved from substantial destruction and gets head start rebuilding. Mostly rebuilt by 1940.

-Franco chooses to avoid economic isolation and opens Spain's economy in 1939, triggering a boom. Spain sells to both sides of WWII heavily from 1940-44, achieving a high rate of growth. Spanish miracle starts two decades early.

-Franco sees writing on the wall for the Axis by early 44 and offers to join Allies provided an additional front is opened in France, Spain is accepted and joins the war in June 1944, slowly liberates small chunks of Southern France at low costs to themselves. Allies portray Spain as good in final year of war.

-Spain emerges from WWII with a moderately bigger economy than what they had pre-Civil War, with a higher GDP per capita than war torn Italy and nearly as high as war torn France or Germany in the short term.

-Spain goes through small short term decline when war demand dries up, but quickly begins growing again around late 46.

-Spain is allowed in NATO inspite of not being Democracy, an exemption made for several others.

-Spain receives Marshall Plan aid.

-By 1950 Spain is still a little above Italy's level, but has been passed by France and West Germany again.

-In 1950s, very high rate of growth occurs, on par with Western European average. Spain is borderline developed country by 1960.

-Due to shortened war and greatly improved economy, Spain loses 2 million fewer emmigrants and 500k fewer lives while taking in another 500k immigrants. Spain has 9 million extra people today as a result.

-Oil discovered in early 50s Equatorial Guinea. Spain overestimates reserves and begins to develop area aggressively, encouraging immigration from Europe and intermarriage with natives. New tech that can tame tropical disease is used heavily.

-1960s Spain sees a continued economic boom. By 1970 Spain is universally regarded as developed.

-Franco begins develop nuclear weapons as OTL. US fails to detect it until later this time, and Spain is two decades ahead of OTL economically making it much easier, and detonates first bomb in the early 70s. World shocked, people begin to question Franco's trustworthiness, and pressure to sanction Spain starts.

-Franco dies per OTL, transition to democracy promised shortly afterwards. It is expected that the nukes will be dealt with then. Most forget about them at this point.

-1970s see decent growth even if it is somewhat slowed. Guinea is heavily assimilated.

-Successful transition to Democracy occurs. The denuclearization is talked about briefly but just doesn't seem to happen as Spain stops producing more bombs after they get their 500th. Rest of West stops caring.

-Spain joins EEC

-Spain has decent 1980s economically.

-Spain is a small net recipient of immigrants from 1960-90 instead of having a net outflow. Spain has an extra five million people today as a result.

-Spain avoids its mistakes that resulted in catastrophic youth unemployment.

-Spain avoids economic collapse following Great Recession, youth unemployment at ~10% by 2015.

-With stronger economy, Spain keeps more people and takes in several million more European (primarily Eastern) immigrants and refugees from 1990 to the present.

-With low youth unemployment, Spain has a TFR of 1.8 instead of 1.4 last decade.



By the present, Spain has a GDP per capita of $47,000 nominally and a population of 67 million for a total GDP of 3.15 trillion. Military budget 70 billion with the worlds second strongest Navy, a modern well maintained Air Force, small but well maintained professional Army with good morale, all backed up by 500 nukes. Well known global culture, good power projection, and some tech, financial, and industrial influence.


I make up his scenario in response to several claims that Spain cannot become a Great Power again with a 1900 PoD. Does this or any other scenario make Spain a Great Power?
 
Even that way Spain is ratherly local power than world or even Europower. But I don't know about plausibility. Might need bit different Franco. Or then allow Republican Spain win or crush nationalist revolt very early stage and go then roughly same as in OTL just with longer lasting democracy without Franco.
 
With POD of 1937 this is ASB. Much of what is premised above would require an ISOT of humans from the future and/or an ASB taking over Franco's brain. I suggest you move it to ASB and put in the necessary advantages; it could be a fun scenario then.
 
I am always interested in seeing how the lesser powers are given a path back to the big table. To me a Great Power is one with a sizeable economic footprint, enough economic and military power to influence events, leads an alliance or is a major partner in one, has some blue water navy and global interests, not merely regional or local ones, and gets involved outside its own backyard.

1937 and beyond has a lot already crystalizing so I think you need to alter some more stuff. Change the Great War outcome, butterfly the Depression for Europe, kill off the USSR, Mussolini, or more. If we wash away WW2 a leftist Republican Spain might become stronger as a French ally or fall into the Soviet orbit, a more right leaning Republic might stay with the British and merely court the Italians, or if we wash away Nazi Germany and still have a Civil War it might be that Franco forms part of the enduring Fascist bloc, this might get some props from an alternate Germany who seeks to counter the Anglo-French, leading to more access to German in addition to Italian technology and industry. This might get you where you propose. The things to seek are healthier population numbers, less emigration, higher per capita incomes, more stability to garner investment and perhaps a better alliance or steer into neutrality to get multiple suitors. I like a more moderate and neutral Spain, I think it has potential to become a fast developing country.

In any number of alternate Europe's the "Great" powers will usually be the British, France, Germany and Russia, with Italy the contender. Without some deep changes further back at best Spain could get the level of Italy as an important adjunct power, independent in most regards, some colonial holdings to give it a global presence versus merely regional to Europe. The latter likely leads to a modicum of blue water naval capability. But I think any nuclear arsenal will be limited in scope due to having less delivery options. At best Spain gets a IRBM or medium bomber like the F111 to reach beyond its borders, even with only tactical weapons the Spanish get more voice. That is still rather different for modern Spain.
 
IMHO, this is my feasible timeline (sorry for my writing, I read english better than I write it):

1900´s: Leaders of the two main parties Silvela and Maura meets to analyze the causes of the defeat in 1898, and how to reform Spain in order to become a superpower again. The agreement includes to end the “turno de partidos”, enhance the education system, look for an agrarian reform and combat fiercely corruption and the oligarchs. Also adopt a strict neutral policy in foreign affairs and military self-suficience.

1910´s: After ten years, Spanish economy is slowly growing, the most important events were the change in the rail gauge to 1435 mm, and the Morocco war in which Spain expanded the area about Ceuta and Melilla, and recognized the Republic of Rif. Corruption is still present but the situation is improving. During the WWI, Spain stays neutral selling goods to the belligerents. The social unrest of 1917 is avoided with the creation of a system of social security according to the principles of the encyclical “rerum novarum”. Catalunya, Euskadi and Galicia are given administrative autonomy.

1920´s: Spain search for closing economic ties wiith Portugal and Latinamerican countries. Nationalization of railways and telecommunications. Unemployed and delinquents are send to the new settlements created in Sahara and Guinea).

1930´s: The economic crisis of 1929 hits Spain hard. The government use the gold reserves obtained during the WWI to promote public works for the unemployed, also an agrarian reform is enforced despite the protests of the landlords. Spain starts to receive asylum seekers from Nazi Germany. Despite being neutral, Spain mobilize its army after the french defeat amidst fears of an invasion.

1940´s: Spain pursue a politic of profit during the WWII: trade with the nazis in exchange for gold, technology and political prisoners and Jews. Also tries to cover the gap in the market left by the belligerents selling its production abroad, especially in Latinamerica.

1950´s: Spain gives its colonies status of province but with the option of self-determination. During the cold war adopt a neutral posture but oriented to the capitalist bloc. Primary export products are olive oil, fish, canned food, ships, mechanical pieces and civil and military vehicles. The first electronic company is established.

1960´s: Spain joins the EFTA, also gets the nuclear bomb. Sahara and Rio Muni provinces become independent. Rio de Oro province and Fernando Poo island due to the peninsular migration surpassing the natives, choose to stay as autonomous territories.

1970´s: First high speed train line. Oil discover in Guinea gulf help to avoid the 1973 crisis. Trade agreement with the European Union and Iberoamerican countries.

1980´s: Spain starts to promote alternative energies like wind and solar power plants. Administrative reform: Administrative descentralization of competences to the regions. Catalunya, Euskadi and Galicia are given legislative autonomy.

1990´s: Spain population reaches 50.000.000 inhabitants. GDP per capita in 1990 reach 15.000 € surpassing U.K. Spain joins the E.U. Olimpic games are held in Barcelona.

2000´s: Spain continue with the economic growth. In 2003 joins the war on terror against islamists.

By the present: Spain population reaches 60.000.000 inhabitants, with a GDP per capita of 48.000 €. Main exports: Olive oil, fish, canned food, wine, cars, motors, ships, wind mills, solar panels, electronic components, military equipment. Spain army is a modern force equiped with national products. Member of the E.U. Enjoys free trade agreement with Iberoamerican countries.
 
Top