Would this be a feasible timeline?
-Civil War over in 37 with Franco winning, Spain saved from substantial destruction and gets head start rebuilding. Mostly rebuilt by 1940.
-Franco chooses to avoid economic isolation and opens Spain's economy in 1939, triggering a boom. Spain sells to both sides of WWII heavily from 1940-44, achieving a high rate of growth. Spanish miracle starts two decades early.
-Franco sees writing on the wall for the Axis by early 44 and offers to join Allies provided an additional front is opened in France, Spain is accepted and joins the war in June 1944, slowly liberates small chunks of Southern France at low costs to themselves. Allies portray Spain as good in final year of war.
-Spain emerges from WWII with a moderately bigger economy than what they had pre-Civil War, with a higher GDP per capita than war torn Italy and nearly as high as war torn France or Germany in the short term.
-Spain goes through small short term decline when war demand dries up, but quickly begins growing again around late 46.
-Spain is allowed in NATO inspite of not being Democracy, an exemption made for several others.
-Spain receives Marshall Plan aid.
-By 1950 Spain is still a little above Italy's level, but has been passed by France and West Germany again.
-In 1950s, very high rate of growth occurs, on par with Western European average. Spain is borderline developed country by 1960.
-Due to shortened war and greatly improved economy, Spain loses 2 million fewer emmigrants and 500k fewer lives while taking in another 500k immigrants. Spain has 9 million extra people today as a result.
-Oil discovered in early 50s Equatorial Guinea. Spain overestimates reserves and begins to develop area aggressively, encouraging immigration from Europe and intermarriage with natives. New tech that can tame tropical disease is used heavily.
-1960s Spain sees a continued economic boom. By 1970 Spain is universally regarded as developed.
-Franco begins develop nuclear weapons as OTL. US fails to detect it until later this time, and Spain is two decades ahead of OTL economically making it much easier, and detonates first bomb in the early 70s. World shocked, people begin to question Franco's trustworthiness, and pressure to sanction Spain starts.
-Franco dies per OTL, transition to democracy promised shortly afterwards. It is expected that the nukes will be dealt with then. Most forget about them at this point.
-1970s see decent growth even if it is somewhat slowed. Guinea is heavily assimilated.
-Successful transition to Democracy occurs. The denuclearization is talked about briefly but just doesn't seem to happen as Spain stops producing more bombs after they get their 500th. Rest of West stops caring.
-Spain joins EEC
-Spain has decent 1980s economically.
-Spain is a small net recipient of immigrants from 1960-90 instead of having a net outflow. Spain has an extra five million people today as a result.
-Spain avoids its mistakes that resulted in catastrophic youth unemployment.
-Spain avoids economic collapse following Great Recession, youth unemployment at ~10% by 2015.
-With stronger economy, Spain keeps more people and takes in several million more European (primarily Eastern) immigrants and refugees from 1990 to the present.
-With low youth unemployment, Spain has a TFR of 1.8 instead of 1.4 last decade.
By the present, Spain has a GDP per capita of $47,000 nominally and a population of 67 million for a total GDP of 3.15 trillion. Military budget 70 billion with the worlds second strongest Navy, a modern well maintained Air Force, small but well maintained professional Army with good morale, all backed up by 500 nukes. Well known global culture, good power projection, and some tech, financial, and industrial influence.
I make up his scenario in response to several claims that Spain cannot become a Great Power again with a 1900 PoD. Does this or any other scenario make Spain a Great Power?
-Civil War over in 37 with Franco winning, Spain saved from substantial destruction and gets head start rebuilding. Mostly rebuilt by 1940.
-Franco chooses to avoid economic isolation and opens Spain's economy in 1939, triggering a boom. Spain sells to both sides of WWII heavily from 1940-44, achieving a high rate of growth. Spanish miracle starts two decades early.
-Franco sees writing on the wall for the Axis by early 44 and offers to join Allies provided an additional front is opened in France, Spain is accepted and joins the war in June 1944, slowly liberates small chunks of Southern France at low costs to themselves. Allies portray Spain as good in final year of war.
-Spain emerges from WWII with a moderately bigger economy than what they had pre-Civil War, with a higher GDP per capita than war torn Italy and nearly as high as war torn France or Germany in the short term.
-Spain goes through small short term decline when war demand dries up, but quickly begins growing again around late 46.
-Spain is allowed in NATO inspite of not being Democracy, an exemption made for several others.
-Spain receives Marshall Plan aid.
-By 1950 Spain is still a little above Italy's level, but has been passed by France and West Germany again.
-In 1950s, very high rate of growth occurs, on par with Western European average. Spain is borderline developed country by 1960.
-Due to shortened war and greatly improved economy, Spain loses 2 million fewer emmigrants and 500k fewer lives while taking in another 500k immigrants. Spain has 9 million extra people today as a result.
-Oil discovered in early 50s Equatorial Guinea. Spain overestimates reserves and begins to develop area aggressively, encouraging immigration from Europe and intermarriage with natives. New tech that can tame tropical disease is used heavily.
-1960s Spain sees a continued economic boom. By 1970 Spain is universally regarded as developed.
-Franco begins develop nuclear weapons as OTL. US fails to detect it until later this time, and Spain is two decades ahead of OTL economically making it much easier, and detonates first bomb in the early 70s. World shocked, people begin to question Franco's trustworthiness, and pressure to sanction Spain starts.
-Franco dies per OTL, transition to democracy promised shortly afterwards. It is expected that the nukes will be dealt with then. Most forget about them at this point.
-1970s see decent growth even if it is somewhat slowed. Guinea is heavily assimilated.
-Successful transition to Democracy occurs. The denuclearization is talked about briefly but just doesn't seem to happen as Spain stops producing more bombs after they get their 500th. Rest of West stops caring.
-Spain joins EEC
-Spain has decent 1980s economically.
-Spain is a small net recipient of immigrants from 1960-90 instead of having a net outflow. Spain has an extra five million people today as a result.
-Spain avoids its mistakes that resulted in catastrophic youth unemployment.
-Spain avoids economic collapse following Great Recession, youth unemployment at ~10% by 2015.
-With stronger economy, Spain keeps more people and takes in several million more European (primarily Eastern) immigrants and refugees from 1990 to the present.
-With low youth unemployment, Spain has a TFR of 1.8 instead of 1.4 last decade.
By the present, Spain has a GDP per capita of $47,000 nominally and a population of 67 million for a total GDP of 3.15 trillion. Military budget 70 billion with the worlds second strongest Navy, a modern well maintained Air Force, small but well maintained professional Army with good morale, all backed up by 500 nukes. Well known global culture, good power projection, and some tech, financial, and industrial influence.
I make up his scenario in response to several claims that Spain cannot become a Great Power again with a 1900 PoD. Does this or any other scenario make Spain a Great Power?