Inspired by this thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...xis-where-do-d-day-and-dragoon-happen.512121/
I found the 1941/1942 DOW to be implausible. The 'best' [1] time for Spain to join the Axis is in the summer of 1940 and a 1941 join the Axis seems even more insane than OTL's. But what if Spain did something else. Rather than joining the Axis, what if they DOWed the Soviet Union in 1941 but pointedly did not join the Axis or declare war on the UK?
Franco will probably think this a symbolic DOW and other than the Blue Division (and maybe another division or two) doesn't send much to help in the East. This additional force is highly unlikely to swing anything on the Eastern Front.
So, how does this play out?
1. The Soviet Union isn't going to be happy about being DOWed, and like with Finland is going to pressure its new ally, the UK, to DOW Spain.
2. The UK (And later US) is going to come under serious diplomatic pressure to DOW. What does the UK do? Simply decline, as any DOW would follow with the immediate loss of Gibralter, or file under 'yes, but not yet' and then start a build up both in Gibraltar and also to attack Spain itself?
3. Is the UK able to use the lack of Soviet DOW on Bulgaria as an excuse not to likewise DOW Spain? What if the Soviet Union then DOWs Bulgaria and askes the UK to reciprocate?
4. Even assuming the UK doesn't declare war on Spain, the war will end pretty much OTL. How does the Soviet Union and Spain arrive at a peace deal? Spain is unlikely to want to concede anything, whilst Stalin and the Soviet Union will simply not accept a 'status quo' peace and will demand at least harsh reparations for perceived wrongs against Leningrad.
5. Even if a peace is concluded, I can see Stalin deciding that Franco needs a lesson in how to use an ice-pick. If Franco was offed sometime between 1946 and 1952 by the Soviet Union, how is the rest of the world going to react to the Head of State being murdered by obvious Soviet agents?
[1] In reality, there is no best time, but hey ho.
I found the 1941/1942 DOW to be implausible. The 'best' [1] time for Spain to join the Axis is in the summer of 1940 and a 1941 join the Axis seems even more insane than OTL's. But what if Spain did something else. Rather than joining the Axis, what if they DOWed the Soviet Union in 1941 but pointedly did not join the Axis or declare war on the UK?
Franco will probably think this a symbolic DOW and other than the Blue Division (and maybe another division or two) doesn't send much to help in the East. This additional force is highly unlikely to swing anything on the Eastern Front.
So, how does this play out?
1. The Soviet Union isn't going to be happy about being DOWed, and like with Finland is going to pressure its new ally, the UK, to DOW Spain.
2. The UK (And later US) is going to come under serious diplomatic pressure to DOW. What does the UK do? Simply decline, as any DOW would follow with the immediate loss of Gibralter, or file under 'yes, but not yet' and then start a build up both in Gibraltar and also to attack Spain itself?
3. Is the UK able to use the lack of Soviet DOW on Bulgaria as an excuse not to likewise DOW Spain? What if the Soviet Union then DOWs Bulgaria and askes the UK to reciprocate?
4. Even assuming the UK doesn't declare war on Spain, the war will end pretty much OTL. How does the Soviet Union and Spain arrive at a peace deal? Spain is unlikely to want to concede anything, whilst Stalin and the Soviet Union will simply not accept a 'status quo' peace and will demand at least harsh reparations for perceived wrongs against Leningrad.
5. Even if a peace is concluded, I can see Stalin deciding that Franco needs a lesson in how to use an ice-pick. If Franco was offed sometime between 1946 and 1952 by the Soviet Union, how is the rest of the world going to react to the Head of State being murdered by obvious Soviet agents?
[1] In reality, there is no best time, but hey ho.
