Spain DOWs on Axis in 1942: Can it take Vichy North Africa?

Could Spain Take and Keep Vichy North Africa?

  • High Probability

    Votes: 2 4.0%
  • Medium Probability

    Votes: 4 8.0%
  • Low Probability

    Votes: 20 40.0%
  • Zero Probability

    Votes: 24 48.0%

  • Total voters
    50
650px-OPERATION-TORCH-OVERVIEW.png


The premise here is that immediately after the allies land at Casablanca in Nov '42 (Operation Torch) Franco sees the writing on the wall and decides to position himself firmly in the allied camp with a DOW on Germany.

The goal is to expel the axis from North Africa, secure it as expanded colonial possessions and keep it in any post-war negotiation.

IOTL, when Hitler invaded Vichy France, Franco ordered a partial mobilization as a precaution, bringing the total Spanish Army troop number to 750,000 men, along with (+/-) 20,000 airmen and (+/-) 30,000 sailors.

This coupled with the fact in a general war scenario and even larger force could be mobilized, do you think Franco could have successfully seized North Africa under the auspicious of Operation Torch and likewise been able to keep it in post war negotiations?

Bonus Points: If you describe how

Depending on your answer, how would Franco's gambit effect WW2 in general?
 
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I haven't voted as I think my answer would be much closer to "Not Sure" than anything else.

My main question would be whether this would, realistically, be Franco's priority?

The civil war had seriously damaged the Spanish economy and infrastructure and even with mobilisation Franco has to contend with both ongoing Republican partisan activity and elements of his own political right who will be horrified by this assault on their "fellow" fascists in Germany and Italy.

In any war scenario wouldn't Franco's objective be to secure his Northern Border against German attack? Maybe by strategic advancement into southern France but, more likely, by digging in particularly along the French-Catalan border?

I think any attack on Vichy North Africa would be a hard slog for Spain if Franco gambles on invading before British or other Wallied assistance can be rendered. It represents a vast commitment of troops in an open-ended campaign in rough terrain whilst simply *hoping* that his northern border remains secure.
 
I voted Zero but what I actually mean is -1 !

In 1942 Spain DOW the Axis means it gets the opportunity to fight two operations.

1- Invasion of Vichy North Africa by Spain in cooperation with US/GB.

2- Defence of Northern Spain from the German army without much US/GB support initially.

I wonder what will get the priority for Spanish troops ? ;)

IMO Spain in 42 is unlikely as GB/US are not ready to jump in to save her, But Spain in 43 might be more realistic if only you can think of a bribe sufficient to get Franco to join in ?
I cant really think of a good reason to do so Spain would be very unlikely to gain overall from it as extra colonial possessions will be unlikely to cover the cost of the deaths and damage to northern Spain.
 
If you are going to have Franco switch then the obvious destination for Torch would not be North Africa but Spain itself!?

The Allies would offer almost anything to Franco in return for a cheap entry back in to Europe.

Can't see how FRanco can deliver the agreement politically though
 
If you are going to have Franco switch then the obvious destination for Torch would not be North Africa but Spain itself!?

The Allies would offer almost anything to Franco in return for a cheap entry back in to Europe.

Can't see how FRanco can deliver the agreement politically though

Very interesting. So while the US/GB use Spanish ports as the staging ground for the war, they could possibly forfeit Casablanca to Franco and leave him to mop up Vichy. Maybe even collaborate with De Gaulle in and around its possessions in Central Africa.
 
The problem with this set up is that Vichy is probably also going to be fighting the Germans (Case Anton) at the same time. This is not unrealistic and I guess Franco taking Casablanca is not worse than the British taking Damascus but taking it and keeping it are two different things once the Free French have their say.

Franco would get considerable lend-lease to feed the people and upgrade the army though.
 
I suppose Spain is going to get the hell bombed out of them by Germany and Italy if they switch sides like that. I wonder if Spain can handle that after the civil war. Of course they are going to be backed by the UK and US, but still. It would drain air and seapower from the North Sea.

They are also going to need all soldiers they can get to protect the Northern border with germany, so no operations or very little in Africa.

Spanish navy is useless, but their ports will come in handy for invasion.

The WAllies could decide to invade France from the South, both land and sea when the buildup is done. Germany is going to have to stretch their defensive perimeter by hundered of miles.
 

nbcman

Donor
If you are going to have Franco switch then the obvious destination for Torch would not be North Africa but Spain itself!?

The Allies would offer almost anything to Franco in return for a cheap entry back in to Europe.

Can't see how FRanco can deliver the agreement politically though

Very interesting. So while the US/GB use Spanish ports as the staging ground for the war, they could possibly forfeit Casablanca to Franco and leave him to mop up Vichy. Maybe even collaborate with De Gaulle in and around its possessions in Central Africa.

Cheap entry for the US/UK into the Iberian peninsula with crap logistics while antagonizing the French by handing over their North African possessions to Franco. Congratulations, you have just made it extremely likely that the Vichy French will declare war on the US/UK for these acts as well as completely discredited the Free French for giving up North Africa to Franco. It would be more likely that the Vichy forces in North Africa would overrun Spanish Morocco
 
I can't see Spain getting any French possessions otherwise de Gaulle would be furious. Maybe Sardinia can become Spanish again?

An interesting issue is the Blue Division on the Eastern Front - does Franco stop sending recruits or just to try to ensure that only the really fanatical right wingers go?

With sufficient notice the Allies can easily reinforce the Pyrenees and Balearics with enough ground and air forces to protect Spain. However the negotiations will be interesting as I'm not sure the Allies will fully trust Franco (at least in Italy the King had some independent authority).

Tangiers or Lisbon? - there's a decent spy story in this.
 

Deleted member 1487

If Franco DoWs Germany, which makes no sense given his politics even has late as 1944 and the strategic situation in 1942 as well as Spain's ability to fight, then with Vichy getting invaded the Germans wouldn't even send the Panzerarmee to Africa, they would invade Spain instead, because that is a FAR deadlier threat and they can close the Straits of Gibraltar and control the Mediterranean far more effectively from Spain than from North Africa. They might even pull out of North Africa to take Spain and make sure the Allies cannot get a continental foothold there, as the Allies will move to aid Franco ASAP. So North Africa becomes a sideshow while Hitler invade Spain with everything available. This probably also precludes Kursk in 1943. In fact the Allies are initially caught flatfooted, as the Spanish DoW leaves them outside the decisive combat area, while the Germans can rush their troops in France to Spain more quickly, as they are right next door. There is no way that the Spanish can stop them and its really going to be that the Axis can pull out of North Africa to move into Spain with everything they have. Portugal is going to be vital to the Allies very soon.

1942-43 then is going to be focused on both sides pumping all they can into the Iberian Peninsula, which means Italy becomes a side show and North Africa falls to the Allies quickly. I think the Axis can probably pull their troops out of Africa en masse before Monty catches up if they make that decision, so Rommel and Kesselring can transfer to Spain by 1943. The Allies take French North Africa without a fight in the following months. Spain probably gets split between the two sides and horrible fighting ensues, damaging Spain worse than during the SCW. Fascists probably side with Hitler in the end, while the Republicans and lefties side with the Allies. Spain becomes the Italy of TTL, as the Axis use the rough terrain and terrible infrastructure to their defensive advantage, while the Allies have a hard time trying to flank with landings on the sides like they did in Italy. Italy staying in the war due to no invasion, as both sides focus on Spain, means that the Germans don't have to spend a bunch of manpower trying to replace the missing Italian troops from their OOB in the Mediterranean, while the French and British 8th army lock down North Africa, but cannot then invade Italy due to the resources all going into Spain.

Spain becomes a meat grinder, the Ebro valley is going to be a strong defensive line like it was during the SCW with the Pyrennes then acting as a bulwark against invasion of France from the south:
spain-topography-1717.jpg


spain-mountain-map.jpg
 

Deleted member 1487

This is winter in Europe conditions were talking about though.
Why can't Spain just do what you propose the Germans would if Hitler tried to attack across the Pyrannes?

Stay on the defense and slowly retreat until Patton or Bradley arrives.
Other than much of the combat capable Spanish troops being on the Eastern Front?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Division#Leningrad_.28August_1942_.E2.80.93_October_1943.29

The Spanish weren't really combat capable after the SCW, the nation was starving, the public hated Franco, and the Fascists were pro-Axis, so likely the Fascists would probably try and coup Franco and defect to the Axis forces coming in, while the Republicans would rise up against his regime and try and join Allied forces coming in, while mobilization would be intensely difficult due to the extensive destruction that was nowhere close to being repaired from the CW. Spain was in no position logistically, militarily, or politically to fight a war. Effectively the Germans would roll over them, bring back the loyal Spanish troops from Russia to fight for their homeland against the Allies and Republicans, recruit pro-Fascists to fight for the Axis as they did in Italy IOTL when it flipped sides, and grab a strong defensive position and use the terrain to their advantage like in Italy.
 
Other than much of the combat capable Spanish troops being on the Eastern Front?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Division#Leningrad_.28August_1942_.E2.80.93_October_1943.29

The Spanish weren't really combat capable after the SCW, the nation was starving, the public hated Franco, and the Fascists were pro-Axis, so likely the Fascists would probably try and coup Franco and defect to the Axis forces coming in, while the Republicans would rise up against his regime and try and join Allied forces coming in, while mobilization would be intensely difficult due to the extensive destruction that was nowhere close to being repaired from the CW. Spain was in no position logistically, militarily, or politically to fight a war. Effectively the Germans would roll over them, bring back the loyal Spanish troops from Russia to fight for their homeland against the Allies and Republicans, recruit pro-Fascists to fight for the Axis as they did in Italy IOTL when it flipped sides, and grab a strong defensive position and use the terrain to their advantage like in Italy.

Ahh. All true things. I concede to your better knowledge on the subject matter.
 
Depending on your answer, how would Franco's gambit effect WW2 in general?
First problem here, is if Franco moves after Operation Torch then French Morocco and western Algeria have already been secured by the allies, while logistics (moving long distance with limited rail and road infrastructure) limits the ability of the allies to push towards Tunisia with force much larger than OTL. The Spanish may add a few useful ports, but then again, the French ports had been secured largely intact. It's certainly not enough leverage to convince the allies to turn over the French colonies...

Second problem here, is the Spanish army is largely equipped with leftovers from the civil war. They're not particularly well equipped to face, say, German armour. While the allies may be able to spare equipment to refit the frontline units, we're still talking months of training to get 'em up to speed on it. In short, Spanish troops would arrive too late to offer the leverage needed to acquire a French colony.

Third problem is up north. Once Vichy France is cleaned up, do you think the Nazis are just going to ignore Spanish backstabbing? Now, while it would be difficult for the Germans to push through the Pyrenees the mere threat still requires the Spanish to keep most of their army back.

Fourth problem, Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy were the big 'sponsors' of the Nationalists during the civil war, it is highly probable that much of the senior leadership of Spain therefore has pro-Axis leanings. If Franco decides to jump on the allied bandwagon, what are the odds he finds himself on the wrong end of a coup by said pro-Axis elements?

So yeah, all in all, it is highly unlikely to work.
 
Maybe you could have a very short civil war which results in less fasist nationalists taking over. They stay out the war and make the right noises towards Germany, but then they throw themselves in when the war starts to go against the Germans, maybe after North Africa. The advantage they have here is the public might be a bit more warrish, and they have actually got the army to do it. The biggest problem is that the Spanish army is still rubbish. According to wiki: At the end of the Second World War, the Spanish Army counted 22,000 officers, 3,000 NCO and almost 300,000 soldiers. The equipment dated from the Civil War, with some systems produced in Germany during the World War. Doctrine and Training were obsolete, as they had not incorporated the teachings of the Second World War.

Without the civil war, the Spanish army will be a 1930's style army, with lots of infantry, and limited and old armour. However, it isn't hopeless, as lend lease could be redirected from SU and UK. However, this still leads to several problems, as why would the spanish get involved if they knew their army wasn't up to it. Personally, I could see the Spanish secretly approaching the Allies around the time of Torch. This would allow Allied troops, presumly those that went to Italy in 43 getting sent to Spain instead, though allied counter intel would assure the Germans that Greece or Italy was next.

The largest problem is getting troops in Spain and carrying out the troop movements nessecary without the Germans noticing. However, if this can be pulled off without the Germans having a clue until a few days before hand, I could see the allies launching a invasion of Southern France in April/May 1943, though any advances would be small, and could be short lived.

This could allow for an invasion of Normandy in late 43 if the Allies are willing and can find enough men and landing craft; requirements could be less than OTL due to the more boring bits of the Atlantic wall being raided by the nazis for troops; Pas de Calais would be as heavily fortifed as OTL as that was the most likely place for an invasion, as far the Germans are concerned. Net result: Paris could be liberated by Dec 43.
 
One side effect is Germany loses its primary Wolfram or Tungsten ore source. Between Allied bombing of the railways into France, guerillias, SOE ops, shutting down the mines, ect there will be next to none reaching German industry.
 
How much would the Eastern Front be affected. Germany just launched Operation Barbarossa a year ago. Would they have to pull units out from the East for invading Spain?

One thing is for sure, Hitler is going to be pissed over Franco and that he now has to invade Spain.
 
How much would the Eastern Front be affected. Germany just launched Operation Barbarossa a year ago. Would they have to pull units out from the East for invading Spain?

...

In the long run yes. In the short run some of the forces sent to Tunisia can be used in Spain, tho they may ammount to only two under strength corps. There was the newly formed SS Pz Corps in central France. OTL that was sent to the east in January 1943, another Wehrmacht Pz corps was rebuilding in France. It was used in Op Aton OTL. After I suposed it might be kept in reserve to complete rebuilding, or sent half baked to Spain.
 
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