Spain after losing Cuba to CSA

[Hawkeye]

In all these discussions of the Confederacy expanding into Cuba I haven't seen a thread which talks about the ramifications of Spain losing it's most valuable colony to the CSA. For now, let's sidestep any opinions regarding if it's plausible for the CSA to defeat Spain and focus solely on how this affects Spanish politics and culture.

With that out of the way, let's presume that the CSA unexpectedly captures Cuba sometime around 1878 and wins a resulting war with Spain, shocking the European world. In OTL losing the Spanish-American war was a traumatic experience for the Spanish which lost nearly all of its colonial empire to the Americans and caused the generation of 98 but it also freed up capital for Spain who were previously holding it in Cuba.

Now this 20 years earlier and Spain still retains the Philippines, Guam, and Puerto Rico. What would happen in this scenario? Would Spain have a larger part in the Scramble for Africa, or even less involvement there? Will there be a renaissance of Spanish culture as seen the generation of 98? Would this undermine King Alfonso's XII reign?

 

[Hawkeye]

Would this emboldened the Carlists to rebel again?

 

[stubear1012]

I am wondering why the CSA would not also take Puerto Rico? I am concerned that Spain would use San Juan as a base to try and get Cuba back. Time and money that could be used in Spain or its remaining colonies would instead be spent try to regain Cuba.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

If the Confederacy is seizing Spain in 1878 the reign of Alfonso XII is probably secure, he's beaten the Carlists, the republic is dead, and the nation is probably tired of war. There will be a big shock that they lost, but the nation probably won't devolve into civil war after nearly a decade of intercine warfare. The Carlists have been sapped, the republic has been defeated, and I doubt most of the generals want to destabilize the new regime. They'd probably turn their attention to Africa and the Pacific to recoup their losses, and invest more in the navy.

If it is lost before 1878, the Carlists could be catapulted to power on the shock over the defeat.

 

[Clandango]

The Dominican Republic's President asked to join the US around the time of the Grant administration, I believe. Possibility that if Puerto Rica is taken they also make the offer. Well, the president. Sure a lot of the others weren't thrilled at the idea. I expect that Cuba would face mass evictions, even if just the land of the poor. Seems the island still had slavery back then, but the land would probably keep being used for sugar and tobacco, later expanding into tropical fruits. I doubt cotton would be grown to a great extent, as the Southerners had already arranged a cartel system, in order to keep the price of cotton from falling too much. Might be problems if the US places an embargo on sugar from Cuba, as they bought most Cuban sugar. I feel the planters of the Old South will be happy, since they can sell even more of their slaves now. Cuba couldn't get 'fresh' labor for a couple of decades, and the Old South made a good deal selling slaves west as the US expanded. Think the indigo, tobacco, and cotton sapped the soul. May also be a general dropping of the smoking and chewing habit due to it supporting traitors.

 

[Hawkeye]

I am wondering why the CSA would not also take Puerto Rico? I am concerned that Spain would use San Juan as a base to try and get Cuba back. Time and money that could be used in Spain or its remaining colonies would instead be spent try to regain Cuba.

I'm going with @EnglishCanuck's response and guess that Spain is too war weary to immediately try go after Cuba again in the near future which buys the CSA some time at least. Although It's far from impossible that the CSA would lose Cuba in some other war either against the US or a European power which might be interesting in and of itself.

 

[Napoleonrules]

Say the US doesn't do anything about the CSA taking Cuba, they will not stand by as Puerto Rico is taken as well. That's too much control over the Caribbean, and most definitely when it came to the Dominican Republic. Then there's the fundamental philosophical problems of the CSA and Haiti sharing a border, Haiti is literally the first African state to be born from colonialism and the CSA is the first nation literally born out of a need to protect and grow slavery. Either Haiti gives in to the CSA demands regarding runaways and not inciting slave revolts with weapons, or Haiti conquers Santo Domingo (possibly with British and US help). The CSA instead of taking Dominican Republic may try to buy Danish West Indies or islands owned by the Netherlands. Perhaps a bidding war between the US and CSA.

 

[Prince de Pringondani]

Why try to buy those Isles from Denmark or the Netherlands is Cuba not enough?

 

[Napoleonrules]

Why try to buy those Isles from Denmark or the Netherlands is Cuba not enough?

Not if the idea is to control trade routes through the Caribbean and to a future canal that eventually WILL be built some where in Central America. Oh, and to keep the USA from doing it for those same reasons.

 

[Hawkeye]

Not if the idea is to control trade routes through the Caribbean and to a future canal that eventually WILL be built some where in Central America. Oh, and to keep the USA from doing it for those same reasons.

I think Napoleon may have already been constructing a canal by now since he has little reason to leave Mexico.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Why would Spain lose to a 3rd rate country like the CSA, unless the British are backing them? And why would the British back slavers, unless geopolitics got more important than, morality for some reason? Prior to the EP, the Civil War was viewed as factionalism in Britain and neither side was viewed as right so it was OK for the British to "pick either evil side" depending on the situation. But CSA vs Spain... uh not unless the moralists suddenly vanish from the House of Lords. It's not like Spain would lose battles to the CSA by forgetting to tell their colonies they are at war http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_Guam oh...

 

[Hawkeye]

Why would Spain lose to a 3rd rate country like the CSA, unless the British are backing them? And why would the British back slavers, unless geopolitics got more important than, morality for some reason? Prior to the EP, the Civil War was viewed as factionalism in Britain and neither side was viewed as right so it was OK for the British to "pick either evil side" depending on the situation. But CSA vs Spain... uh not unless the moralists suddenly vanish from the House of Lords. It's not like Spain would lose battles to the CSA by forgetting to tell their colonies they are at war http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_Guam oh...

For now, let's sidestep any opinions regarding if it's plausible for the CSA to defeat Spain and focus solely on how this affects Spanish politics and culture.

 

[Napoleonrules]

If the answer is "let's sidestep any opinions if it's plausible" then that makes it either for the talk forum or ASB. I'm sick of these "I don't know, and don't care, how we get the POD to work but let's assume it is". If you don't know HOW, then we can't tell you WHAT HAPPENS NEXT, and most likely you can't say why or how because you don't know and it's ASB. How and why matter!

 

[Alex Zetsu]

If the answer is "let's sidestep any opinions if it's plausible" then that makes it either for the talk forum or ASB. I'm sick of these "I don't know, and don't care, how we get the POD to work but let's assume it is". If you don't know HOW, then we can't tell you WHAT HAPPENS NEXT, and most likely you can't say why or how because you don't know and it's ASB. How and why matter!

Oh that's just dumb. Do I have to send you a link to ASB definition on this forum?

If Tony Blair become President of the United States because 3/4 Americans decided our presidential qualifications were too strict and should include foreigners, then that's unlikely but possible.

If Tony Blair becomes president of the United States because God appoint him, then it goes into the ASB forum and God is the bat.

 

[Napoleonrules]

Oh that's just dumb. Do I have to send you a link to ASB definition on this forum?

If Tony Blair become President of the United States because 3/4 Americans decided our presidential qualifications were too strict and should include foreigners, then that's unlikely but possible.

If Tony Blair becomes president of the United States because God appoint him, then it goes into the ASB forum and God is the bat.

I think you need to read how the Constitution is amended because your first example IS ASB, both because yes it is impossible and will NOT happen, but it's also legally not able to happen. You don't seem to know what exactly ASB is. It isn't that "oh, it COULD happen if 1 in a 10 billion chance, but it COULD" ASB is not literally NOT a chance as all. It's the VERY unlikely possibility.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

By the forum's stated standards, anything that's physically possible but not geological or evolutionary is not ASB.

However a lot of the forum don't actually follow its own standards and cry out "ASB blah blah blah"

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Why would Spain lose to a 3rd rate country like the CSA, unless the British are backing them? And why would the British back slavers, unless geopolitics got more important than, morality for some reason? Prior to the EP, the Civil War was viewed as factionalism in Britain and neither side was viewed as right so it was OK for the British to "pick either evil side" depending on the situation. But CSA vs Spain... uh not unless the moralists suddenly vanish from the House of Lords. It's not like Spain would lose battles to the CSA by forgetting to tell their colonies they are at war http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_Guam oh...

Not sure if there's a little sarcasm here, but just to forestall too much debate on the issue I'll cross post this

IMO irrespective of the POD which leads to victory, only Cuba is a viable target for Confederate expansion. Unless there are some substantial changes in Spain between 1860 and 1868 in TTL, Spain will be a basket case by 1870, with the Queen deposed, an unstable republic in power, civil war, and rebellion in Cuba itself. Cuba was in a civil war from 1868 - 1878 historically, and the slaveholding elite on the western end of the island (who were opposed to the more liberal minded rebels in the west) held some republican sympathies, but sided with the Spanish to defend slavery. Here, the Confederacy (who had some of those men fight in their ranks OTL) offers an alternative to Spanish monarchism and abolitionist republicanism. If there's a POD that sees the Confederacy fairly stable after the war, and still sees Spain fall into anarchy, you could very well see a three sided civil war/invasion on Cuba. In the east abolitionist republicans, in the west slaver allies, and the Spanish garrison at Havana attempting to restore order.

Even after conquering Cuba, keeping a lid on the place for the rest of the 19th century would require significant investment from Richmond, and lead to a large Confederate garrison on the island. So that in and of itself would probably preclude any further adventurism by the Confederacy.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Say the US doesn't do anything about the CSA taking Cuba, they will not stand by as Puerto Rico is taken as well. That's too much control over the Caribbean, and most definitely when it came to the Dominican Republic.

Its impossible for the CSA to get the Dominican Republic willingly. Or that Haiti can reconquer the place.

Antislavery is too ingrained in the population, and a major factor for the revolt against Spain was fear of slavery being reinstated onto the population.

 

[Hawkeye]

If the answer is "let's sidestep any opinions if it's plausible" then that makes it either for the talk forum or ASB. I'm sick of these "I don't know, and don't care, how we get the POD to work but let's assume it is". If you don't know HOW, then we can't tell you WHAT HAPPENS NEXT, and most likely you can't say why or how because you don't know and it's ASB. How and why matter!

Granted you have a point as how Spain loses definitely matters but this thread was specifically made to discuss what would happen to Spain in this scenario. Not if it could realistically happen. There are plenty of other threads discussing plausibility such as this one here and I feel that there's nothing new to add to that discussion so it would just distract and derail the thread.

What I'm trying to say is yes, the how and why does matter but we've already argued the if to death and I'm just trying to get to move things along.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

In OTL everyone expected Spain to give USA a hard time. True, the war was away from their base of power. However American rifle aiming and artillery reloading and artillery tactics were viewed as a joke, and honestly in that time period it was. At least Spain could console itself that the Americans had decent leadership and plenty of resources to fight and win (which is why they didn't want the war in the first place).

Losing to TTL CSA? Well, I think they would be so humiliated in losing a pitched battle against them it would have drastic domestic repercussions.

The only way I can think of CSA winning is Spain forgetting to tell their outposts about the war. But that would trade the humiliation of losing a pitched battle to a loser to losing a war due to beaurcratic incompetence.