Space Elevator?

I think the soonest it could be is in a couple of DECADES - it certainly can't be done in two years. You can buy some stuff that's probably strong enough, but our experience making it in THAT kind of quantity, not to mention in structural cables, just isn't there. People are still doing experiments and studies, so it'll be awhile before we're ready.

I look on the Brooklyn Bridge as a good analogy - after all, a Space Elevator'd be among other things the longest bridge ever. That was the first use of steel in structural cable, ever, and it's held up almost 130 years. It's four cables, of almost twenty cables; a similar, but much, much, longer structural design should work. Partial breakage could be dealt with by planning to be able to build extra cables in.

We can expect them to cost ALOT, but deliver even more ROI than the Panama Canal has, IMHO. It'd allow much cheaper, and thus, much more space travel.

Aren't mass drivers a little hard on passengers? Would they really be easier or cheaper? They strike as best after elevators, for fast freight. How can the space fountain be made safe - especially for people - given that's its design works by bonking things lots of times?

Edwards is a fanatic, not someone to trust. And his design's simply weird and wrong in several ways. It's stabler to build to/from geosync, and he seems utterly unfamiliar with bridge basics.
 
Here are two big problems shown by 9/11:

* A person with a hypersonic jet, 747. et al. can simply slam the vehicle into the space elevator to collapse. The temperature at which jet and/or rocket fuel burns will cause the carbon-fiber to buckle and collapse upon ignition.

* Second, if you have robots and/or nano-machines doing a majority of the work, consider a good hacker can cause the entire self-destruct or at the very least cause it to be halted indefinitely.
 
Aren't mass drivers a little hard on passengers? Would they really be easier or cheaper? They strike as best after elevators, for fast freight. How can the space fountain be made safe - especially for people - given that's its design works by bonking things lots of times?
Yeah, mass drivers aren't really a feasable option for earth. They could maybe be made to work for freight but not for passengers.
Even for freight though they wouldn't be the best.

On the moon on the other hand...

The problem being that, when the thing fails, it's going to be BAD. Like, extinction event bad. So you want to have it so ridiculously engineered that you can be as absolutely sure as humanly possible that it will last the time limit. At which point it will be promptly dismantled and rebuilt from scratch. Anything less invites the thing to snap and wrap the equator... bye-bye, most of humanity.
This is...uncertain.
Some novels have big cataclysms from falling elevators but I've read scientists saying if it fails the cable will be light enough it just floats down to earth without much damage. Or burns up.
 

loughery111

Banned
Here are two big problems shown by 9/11:

* A person with a hypersonic jet, 747. et al. can simply slam the vehicle into the space elevator to collapse. The temperature at which jet and/or rocket fuel burns will cause the carbon-fiber to buckle and collapse upon ignition.

* Second, if you have robots and/or nano-machines doing a majority of the work, consider a good hacker can cause the entire self-destruct or at the very least cause it to be halted indefinitely.

Two points... one being that the materials and size required will mean a 747 barely scratches it, two being that, if they hit it in the base, all it will do is fling the other end away. Hell, there may be time to reattach it. Oh and a third being that Muslim lands are going to take more damage from the elevator wrapping the equator than those of any other religion. And I just can't see anyone else trying that.

For the nano-machines idea... the whole idea of using nanomachines to construct things of this size is absolutely insane. They'll be used to spin individual fibers in a controlled lab somewhere, not to build the whole damned thing while exposed to solar radiation...
 
Yes. Only POD you need is discovery of a good enough tether material that you can also produce in large quantities at acceptable price. That is only real technological problem for space elevator today or in any other time, everything else is easily doable. (note. I'm strictly talking about small scale stuff that requires less than 100 tons of initial ribbon and has planned growth to total system weight of couple thousand tones)

So you can have Fullerenes discovered by luck and different to OTL grant allocations in 1980. Colossal Carbon Tubes discovered in early '90es. Mass scale production of both in early 00'es. Someone figures out sufficiently strong and light combined CNT and CCT fiber before 2010 and you have someone finalizing designs and starting building stuff in '12.

Its a hell off a long shot for a TL, but not completely ASB. (sadly I don't think we will have good enough material in bulk production at any price before 2030'es IRL)
 
Edwards is a fanatic, not someone to trust. And his design's simply weird and wrong in several ways. It's stabler to build to/from geosync, and he seems utterly unfamiliar with bridge basics.

IIRC the Wright Brothers were considered fanatics as well; someone being a fanatic does not make him wrong. I'd be interested in how you believe his design is 'weird and wrong'.

I myself am a mechanical engineer, not a civil engineer, but I'd question the bridge analogy; a space elevator as described by Dr. Edwards is as close to a purely tensile structure as you'll ever get. A bridge, even a suspension bridge, is quite a bit more complex and even modern suspension bridges have major structural elements that lack a parallel in a space elevator.

I agree with several previous comments that a classic space elevator probably isn't the easiest technical solution, nor does it provide the best ROI. That doesn't make it impossible to meet the OP.

Are we likely to see a space elevator, or any improvement over rockets for space launches for that matter, in my lifetime? Sadly, no. That doesn't mean we couldn't, or shouldn't.
 
You can't put mass drivers on the Earth - the launch package would burn up in the atmosphere as soon as it left the barrel! If you're going to build the accelerate and vacuum tube necessary you might as well just make it a space fountain instead.

As for Space elevator obsolesce - by its very nature its easy to get rid of one, just nudge it up a bit and it'll get flung out into interplanetary space. Thus you don't need to build a thousand year high capacity one right out of the gates.

@Cook: you just stop all packages on the space fountain when the power fails. Since the mass is circluating within vacuum filled tubes the energy loss is gradual, and unless you're an idiot you'll be running it at well over minimum energy levels, which will give you considerable time to find new power sources. Also again unless you're an idiot it should have multiple independent power sources for just such failure modes, hell you can even have independent mass streams within the same fountain. Also since the mass is going to take a while to complete a loop you have considerable time between complete destruction of the base and the top beginning to fail (several hours for a two hundred kilometer tall one).

Finally since space fountains are generally just going up to LEO rather than GEO they will only be a couple of hundred kilometers high - it collapsing is a local problem rather than the global destruction of a descending elevator.

@gridly: the problem with Edwards proposals are the fact he just makes up figures for the strength and cost to construct for nanotubes, figures that seem increasingly unlikely experimentally.
 
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I'm very interested in where you get this, because I read both NIAC reports and he didn't mention nanobots in any of them.

There is no reason to require mechanical nanotech for large scale production of fiber. It is completely possible and even expected that conventional means will prove sufficient. (once discovered... I know I know :( )

And in general, everyone who imagines space elevator as a big fat tower going 36,000km up is so wrong and uninformed on subject that he really shouldn't even be in this discussion.

Don't think of bridges, don't think of towers. Think of a geostationary satellite. That has a very long rope hanging beneath it, and counterweight hanging above it. The entire structure is still in GEO.
 
Don't think of bridges, don't think of towers. Think of a geostationary satellite. That has a very long rope hanging beneath it, and counterweight hanging above it. The entire structure is still in GEO.

In fact that's exactly how I start an explanation of a space elevator - I explain geostat, then ask them to imagine a satellite there. Now imagine it extending up and down, its center of mass thus remaining unchanged, until it touches the ground. Presto! Space Elevator.
 
Two points... one being that the materials and size required will mean a 747 barely scratches it, two being that, if they hit it in the base, all it will do is fling the other end away. Hell, there may be time to reattach it. Oh and a third being that Muslim lands are going to take more damage from the elevator wrapping the equator than those of any other religion. And I just can't see anyone else trying that.

For the nano-machines idea... the whole idea of using nanomachines to construct things of this size is absolutely insane. They'll be used to spin individual fibers in a controlled lab somewhere, not to build the whole damned thing while exposed to solar radiation...

In terms of the first argument, there are several problems. First, with regards to the materials, with enough jet fuel (jet, liqud hydrogen/ liquid oxygen, et al.), the proper speed, the proper trajectory, even the best designed tower will collapse. Consider that with the proper liquid hydrogen/ oxygen mix ratio, diamonds melt and in some cases they turn into dust... Second, I wasn't thinking of the Middle East. If I was North Korea, Russia, China, et al. or any of the many nations not located within the Equator, I can blow up the space elevator, knowing that none of the people in the political or economic bloc of my choice are not killed in the process.

Yes, but consider that the same nano-machines which are designed to build the space elevator fibers, can be smuggled, within a person, without any detection, and instantly used to dismantle the the structure of a space elevator.
 
Gridley wrote:
... I'd question the bridge analogy; a space elevator as described by Dr. Edwards is as close to a purely tensile structure as you'll ever get. A bridge, even a suspension bridge, is quite a bit more complex and even modern suspension bridges have major structural elements that lack a parallel in a space elevator.
o I already mentioned the bad length - he's targeting a probably infeasibly unstable length of 100k rather than to stabler circular geosync.

o Using beamed power on a real elevator'd be fail because real things flex; the right way's to include a thick bundle with power and networks and room for many future cables as well.

o Aren't twisted cables both less vulnerable to torsion and far easier to make than his proposal?

o Having just one really wide cable'd be more vulnerable to meteors and terrorists. It'd also be far harder to repair if severed.

o Multiple cables lets you have far more tracks running between the cables. The Brooklyn Bridge carries six lanes of car traffic, and, ISTR, two subway tracks.

So, to me, your confusion is because of Edwards' mistakes. To me, space elevators SHOULD have most structural elements that suspension bridges have. I'm annoyed at Edwards because that means one widespread view of space elevators is simply wrong.

Like, extinction event bad.
Why? One falling would certainly be bad, and cause too much damage, but it'd only extinctify SOME people. The energy and footprint involved simply isn't THAT big. That said, it SHOULD have plenty of margin for error - like most bridges, for the same reason.
 

loughery111

Banned
In terms of the first argument, there are several problems. First, with regards to the materials, with enough jet fuel (jet, liqud hydrogen/ liquid oxygen, et al.), the proper speed, the proper trajectory, even the best designed tower will collapse. Consider that with the proper liquid hydrogen/ oxygen mix ratio, diamonds melt and in some cases they turn into dust... Second, I wasn't thinking of the Middle East. If I was North Korea, Russia, China, et al. or any of the many nations not located within the Equator, I can blow up the space elevator, knowing that none of the people in the political or economic bloc of my choice are not killed in the process.

Yes, but consider that the same nano-machines which are designed to build the space elevator fibers, can be smuggled, within a person, without any detection, and instantly used to dismantle the the structure of a space elevator.

The first part... let's not forget, we're talking about a cable of solid carbon that is going to be about as wide as a (very) large skyscraper. One 747 is NOT going to do the job. One nuclear warhead probably will... probably. Two, Russia, China, etc... will all have a very large incentive not to blow the thing up, for two reasons. One, using the nuclear weapon that will be required is just not plausibly deniable, if only because it can be traced via isotope. Two, they have a huge economic interest in not knocking the thing down.

Finally, it is not a tower and you need to quit thinking of it as one. It will not collapse when broken (given that it has to be designed to support its self-weight). The top part will simply start to move away from the earth. If it is well balanced enough, it will do that so slowly that they could possibly even be reattached before drastic damage is done.

As for the nanotechnology stuff again... the reason that the nanotechnology will be used in a laboratory under closely controlled conditions is that it just doesn't work worth a damn anywhere else. Environmental factors will affect nanotechnology just as much as they do individual cells (which require precise balances of pH, temperature, pressure, and cannot handle radiation of any kind worth a damn). Also, the tower is too big to build via nano-machine in a reasonable timespan, which means that it is also too big to disassemble. You've been reading too much sci-fi where the nano-bots are released and eat everything in ten seconds. That is not how it works. Also, they're so small that ionizing radiation will render them useless in seconds, so good luck trying that above the ozone layer. And precautions could easily be maintained, to give warning that something like this was tried. There will be plenty of time to stop the things before they "eat" through a hundred meter (or more) wide cable.
 
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The first part... let's not forget, we're talking about a cable of solid carbon that is going to be about as wide as a (very) large skyscraper. One 747 is NOT going to do the job. One nuclear warhead probably will... probably. Two, Russia, China, etc... will all have a very large incentive not to blow the thing up, for two reasons. One, using the nuclear weapon that will be required is just not plausibly deniable, if only because it can be traced via isotope. Two, they have a huge economic interest in not knocking the thing down.
You're assuming an attack made only when it is complete. Any attack prior to completion negates the argument. Second, people have two very strong reasons to blow up the elevator. First, the argument of being able to trace the nation assumes safeguards on the sale of nuclear weapons. One can easily imagine scenarios wherein blackmarket weapons from Russia, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, et al. fall into the hands of terrorists, with no ability to trace effectively the nation or organization of origin. Second, you are assuming, either that the nation or organization in question cares (e.g. Al-Qaeda/ Taliban don't care, and actually want a worldwide economic collapse) about economic incentive or that the party in question won't benefit from the destruction involved (e.g. North Korea).

Finally, it is not a tower and you need to quit thinking of it as one. It will not collapse when broken (given that it has to be designed to support its self-weight). The top part will simply start to move away from the earth. If it is well balanced enough, it will do that so slowly that they could possibly even be reattached before drastic damage is done.
Taking out everything within a line of movement. JUst imagine the amount of damage that is caused on the sea floor when an anchor and chain are dragged, or better yet, when a oil rig drill is shaken in a hurricane. Just remember that in any disaster, the balance that you are hoping for will fail, and reattachment will not be possible.

As for the nanotechnology stuff again... the reason that the nanotechnology will be used in a laboratory under closely controlled conditions is that it just doesn't work worth a damn anywhere else. Environmental factors will affect nanotechnology just as much as they do individual cells (which require precise balances of pH, temperature, pressure, and cannot handle radiation of any kind worth a damn). Also, the tower is too big to build via nano-machine in a reasonable timespan, which means that it is also too big to disassemble. You've been reading too much sci-fi where the nano-bots are released and eat everything in ten seconds. That is not how it works. Also, they're so small that ionizing radiation will render them useless in seconds, so good luck trying that above the ozone layer. And precautions could easily be maintained, to give warning that something like this was tried. There will be plenty of time to stop the things before they "eat" through a hundred meter (or more) wide cable.
Actually, the same amount of time to "eat away" can allow a potential terrorist to escape undetected. Just remember that if you have the technology to assemble carborn fibers on an atomic level, you also have technology that can take it apart. All it takes is malicious and patient programming, two things hackers and terrorists always have...
 
No one is talking about carbon cable as wide as skyscraper. Something like that we wont be able to build for at least a century. Only remotely plausible space elevators within next 50 years are single cable ones with total system mass of several thousand tons.

Another important thing, if you cut space elevator, only part below the cut will drop to earth. The rest will simply stay in orbit, it will actually go to a higher orbit because of mass distribution and moments.

So for any realistically imaginable SE, (even if you can get to it, it will likely be a in a restricted flight zone in middle of nowhere in Pacific ocean) you have a high altitude suicide plane cutting cable at 20 or 30 km above sea level and as much cable falling down while rest stays almost in the same orbit as it was.
 

loughery111

Banned
You're assuming an attack made only when it is complete. Any attack prior to completion negates the argument. Second, people have two very strong reasons to blow up the elevator. First, the argument of being able to trace the nation assumes safeguards on the sale of nuclear weapons. One can easily imagine scenarios wherein blackmarket weapons from Russia, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, et al. fall into the hands of terrorists, with no ability to trace effectively the nation or organization of origin. Second, you are assuming, either that the nation or organization in question cares (e.g. Al-Qaeda/ Taliban don't care, and actually want a worldwide economic collapse) about economic incentive or that the party in question won't benefit from the destruction involved (e.g. North Korea).

Taking out everything within a line of movement. JUst imagine the amount of damage that is caused on the sea floor when an anchor and chain are dragged, or better yet, when a oil rig drill is shaken in a hurricane. Just remember that in any disaster, the balance that you are hoping for will fail, and reattachment will not be possible.

Actually, the same amount of time to "eat away" can allow a potential terrorist to escape undetected. Just remember that if you have the technology to assemble carborn fibers on an atomic level, you also have technology that can take it apart. All it takes is malicious and patient programming, two things hackers and terrorists always have...

The North Koreans would have no incentive one way or another... aside from the fact that the origin of the bomb used can be traced back to them, and therefore doing something like that is committing national suicide when the US, China, India, South Korea, and Japan come gunning with blood in their eye. As for Al-Queda, the same constraints that prevent the DPRK from using a weapon prevent anyone else from giving them one, and they cannot build it themselves. Now, finally, if you blow up the cable near the ground, within a few or even a few dozen kilometers (which would be necessary as there is no delivery system available to terrorists that can get higher with any accuracy), only that part will fall, and the damage will just not be that catastrophic. To cut the entire thing and cause it to plummet, it would have to be cut at the spacial anchor. Not likely, assuming any means of scanning cargo for nuclear materials is employed.

As for the idea that you can attack it while it is under construction... you do realize that this is the point at which you will cause the least damage, right? While under construction, everything is supported in such a way that cutting the cable won't matter because there is nothing holding it at the other end, anyway. Any engineer with a brain will build it in orbit from the anchor end down, then literally drop it into a pre-constructed base platform and anchor it there very, very tightly. So not only is an attack less effective while it is under construction, it is also much harder to pull off.

What makes you assume that clipping the cable will cause the balance of this thing to instantly fail catastrophically? Any engineer with a brain will make sure that the "roof" is capable of active maneuvers to aid in the relinking of a broken cable. You don't get to say "reattachment will not be possible," just because you want to win the argument. Give me some proof that clipping the cable of a precisely aligned space elevator with a center of mass as close to geosynchronous orbit as possible, and with significant active maneuver capability, is going to unbalance it such that it can't be repaired before the entire thing is a total loss.

Now, finally... as a terrorist group, you depend on stealth and surprise to sever this. The ABSOLUTE LAST THING you want to do is use a weapon that takes weeks or months to function and has easily noticeable effects in the meantime. What's more, it is easily countered, because to cleanse the cable of nanotechnology, all that is required is to sweep it with a focused pulse of x-rays. So I have about as much fear of nanites being used to bring the cable down as I do of termites being employed by terrorists to destroy the Capitol building. They're equally threatening and only a terrorist organization made up of idiots would try to use them to take out the elevator.

I really don't understand how you expect the people who built this thing, partly through the use of nanotechnology, to not take precautions to make sure they can detect a nanotechnology attack on it long, long before it actually begins to cause crippling damage. They'll catch it the second the cable's surface starts degrading and then wipe the nanites out before any lasting damage is done.

EDIT: Just reread your post and realized that you missed the following: you clip the line, and the structure moves upwards. Thus, your anchor dragging analogy doesn't work at all, because this cable will be a few dozen kilometers up, and not moving relative to the surface anyway.
 
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Wasn't that a 'space ramp' featured in the 1950s movie 'When Worlds Collide'?

wwcb.PNG
 
I given some thought to a Reagan SDI analogy, where instead of trying to achieve superiourity over the Soviets with defensive space tech, he trys to achieve economic superiorit over the Soviets with space industrialization.

Banking of Solar Power Satelites.

Could go for a SPace FOuntain.

Little bit of a stretch of course.


Alternatively, at the end of the Cold War, when there was that concern about what would happen with all those Russian scientist and/or Russian democratic reforms
:)
I thought a huge US/Russian space project would help give jobs to potentially dangerous scientist and help stabilize Russia.

Could be a good POD for a big Space project also.
 

Susano

Banned
I given some thought to a Reagan SDI analogy, where instead of trying to achieve superiourity over the Soviets with defensive space tech, he trys to achieve economic superiorit over the Soviets with space industrialization.

Banking of Solar Power Satelites.

Could go for a SPace FOuntain.

Little bit of a stretch of course.


Alternatively, at the end of the Cold War, when there was that concern about what would happen with all those Russian scientist and/or Russian democratic reforms
:)
I thought a huge US/Russian space project would help give jobs to potentially dangerous scientist and help stabilize Russia.

Could be a good POD for a big Space project also.

Except there are no real economical prospects for "space industrialisation". Well, power satellites, maybe, but thats about it and can be easily done with current infrastructure. So that would be just billions blown to waste, in the end - well, I guess, no great difference to IOTL then....
 
The North Koreans would have no incentive one way or another... aside from the fact that the origin of the bomb used can be traced back to them, and therefore doing something like that is committing national suicide when the US, China, India, South Korea, and Japan come gunning with blood in their eye. As for Al-Queda, the same constraints that prevent the DPRK from using a weapon prevent anyone else from giving them one, and they cannot build it themselves. Now, finally, if you blow up the cable near the ground, within a few or even a few dozen kilometers (which would be necessary as there is no delivery system available to terrorists that can get higher with any accuracy), only that part will fall, and the damage will just not be that catastrophic. To cut the entire thing and cause it to plummet, it would have to be cut at the spacial anchor. Not likely, assuming any means of scanning cargo for nuclear materials is employed.
You've missed the point. The point is that a rogue or collapsed state, can sell nuclear weapons, without the international community being able to retaliate. For instance, if a terrorist group from Venezuela purchases from Belarus a "loose nuke" nuclear weapon through South African dissdents, are any of the 3 nations going to be attacked? Nope!! Also, you seem to forget that the section in question that collapses is at least c. 5-10 miles in length. In a major metropolitan area, you have killed c. 750,000 or more people. It certainly isn't an extinction event, but you certainly don't want to be anywhere near collapse...

As for the idea that you can attack it while it is under construction... you do realize that this is the point at which you will cause the least damage, right? While under construction, everything is supported in such a way that cutting the cable won't matter because there is nothing holding it at the other end, anyway. Any engineer with a brain will build it in orbit from the anchor end down, then literally drop it into a pre-constructed base platform and anchor it there very, very tightly. So not only is an attack less effective while it is under construction, it is also much harder to pull off.
You forget that any demolition expert or trained terrorist can dismatle the anchor, again causing massive amounts of destruction. As for the precious carbon fibers, since they were designed to withstand the friction of orbital re-entry, consider that hundreds of miles worth of falling carbon cable will certainly kill thousands of people on the ground...

What makes you assume that clipping the cable will cause the balance of this thing to instantly fail catastrophically? Any engineer with a brain will make sure that the "roof" is capable of active maneuvers to aid in the relinking of a broken cable. You don't get to say "reattachment will not be possible," just because you want to win the argument. Give me some proof that clipping the cable of a precisely aligned space elevator with a center of mass as close to geosynchronous orbit as possible, and with significant active maneuver capability, is going to unbalance it such that it can't be repaired before the entire thing is a total loss.

Verrazano Straits Bridge Disaster...

Now, finally... as a terrorist group, you depend on stealth and surprise to sever this. The ABSOLUTE LAST THING you want to do is use a weapon that takes weeks or months to function and has easily noticeable effects in the meantime. What's more, it is easily countered, because to cleanse the cable of nanotechnology, all that is required is to sweep it with a focused pulse of x-rays. So I have about as much fear of nanites being used to bring the cable down as I do of termites being employed by terrorists to destroy the Capitol building. They're equally threatening and only a terrorist organization made up of idiots would try to use them to take out the elevator.


Two very good examples of people taking their time for what authorities consider a "terrorist act":

The Great Escape or The Bridge ont he River Kwai
 
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