Soviets without oil

Let's say Britain takes an interest in Azerbaijani oil following WWI and opts to box the Soviets out of the Caucasus - supporting Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and North Caucasia (the Mountainous Republic of the Northern Caucasus). The Soviets thus don't have the oil of Baku.

AND the Japanese hold on to the North of Sakhalin, where there was also some oil.


How do the Soviets fare without the oil? They probably stick to the NEP longer, needing to trade grain for money and fuel.

If Hitler still comes to power, how does this affect the Great Patriotic War of TTL?
 
How do the Soviets fare without the oil? They probably stick to the NEP longer, needing to trade grain for money and fuel.
Well it's certainly going to make things harder for the Soviets. Lenin stated that the Azerbaijan oil fields were vital and that Russia couldn't survive without Baku oil, although I think was being a touch hyperbolic there. IIRC the Volga-Ural basin was already known about but it was simply cheaper to get oil from Azerbaijan, with that gone the Soviets likely go full-bore on developing the deposits in it as a major leg of their industrialisation policy. It would also prompt them to start investigating for other alternative fields as well.
 
Well it's certainly going to make things harder for the Soviets. Lenin stated that the Azerbaijan oil fields were vital and that Russia couldn't survive without Baku oil, although I think was being a touch hyperbolic there. IIRC the Volga-Ural basin was already known about but it was simply cheaper to get oil from Azerbaijan, with that gone the Soviets likely go full-bore on developing the deposits in it as a major leg of their industrialisation policy. It would also prompt them to start investigating for other alternative fields as well.

Pretty much. There's also the Kazakh oil deposits, although I don't know if it was known precisely how extensive they were at the time. There's also the possibility the Soviets simply reconquer the Caucasus once the British are too distracted by the Germans to stop them.
 
There's also the possibility the Soviets simply reconquer the Caucasus once the British are too distracted by the Germans to stop them.
A very good point, after 1939 there's little they could probably do other than lodge formal diplomatic protests. Even if they don't do so before the war I could see them invading or fomenting a revolution during or immediately after it when things are in flux.

There's also the question that if Stalin doesn't take them then how hard would be fight to defend the region? Logically denying the resources to the Germans as the enemy makes sense, defending what used to be a part of Russia and have likely been portrayed as capitalistic puppets for over a decade when Staligrad is occurring could see that discounted. It could also change German actions, if Soviet oil supplies are coming from the Volga-Ural basin do they make such a strong push towards the Caucasus or throw in extra troops further north?
 
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