Soviets leave Afghanistan from 1979-1987

Ismail

Banned
By 1987 IRL the Afghan army had basically been "Vietnamized" enough by Soviet troops to care for itself independently of Soviet presence in the country and obviously Afghanistan held out a few years after the Soviet withdrawal, but what would happen to Afghanistan if the Soviets had left before the Soviet version of "Vietnamization" of the Afghan army had been complete? Specifically, what Mujahidin forces would come to power? Would there be any significant differences in a Mujahidin victory in, say, 1982 versus one in 1992 in terms of Afghanistan itself?
 
Turning the conflict into Afghan Civil War earlier on, right after the Iranian Revolution, might have interesting implications to the way Iran views the status Hazara people within the country.

Before the Iran-Iraq War ayatollahs have more resources to spare, and helping their brothers of faith to fend off religious opponents funded by both Saudi Salafists and the Great Satan might seem like a good foreign policy move once their rule has been established.
 

Hyperion

Banned
If the Soviets don't go all out in Afghanistan, how might that effect their policies, and the eventual end of the Cold War.

With other incidents in the 1980s, I would expect the Soviet Union to still break up, the Berlin Wall to come down, and the guy in Romania to end up taken out and hanged. That being said, without the massive resource drain Afghanistan was, perhaps the fall of the Soviet Union might not be as bad as in OTL, and Russia and some of the other smaller independent nations might be able to pick up a bit sooner than OTL and be a bit more well off.
 
If no invasion in 1979, there are several things which will go different:

1) Olympic boycott. What wouldl hve happened? any impact?
2) Drain of soviet resources. This set Soviet back, but i don't know how much. 20% in GDP?
3) Too many sons/fathers coming home in body bags. This could nto be hidden away and was surely a factor in the rejection of the Soviet system
4) If no invasion, would the Muslim republics have gone independent earlier? or would the Soviet forces have been able to neutralise these?

I have a nice scenario: No invasion, the Muslim republics get chucked out, Wall down, Eastern Europe left to itself. Soviet becoming a tight federation of slavic states: Russia, Ukraina and Belarus ONLY.

Now what?

Ivan
 
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