Soviets Invade Iran in 1980

Geon

Donor
This scenario is partly based on the thread:


But mostly, it borrows from a book from the early 80's Nuclear War: What's in It for You?

The scenario, which occurs at the opening of the book presents the following.

  • In 1980 left wing elements in Iran stage a countercoup which unseats the Islamic Republic. The new government is immediately recognized by the Soviet Union.
  • The countercoup does not go entirely smoothly, pro-shah and pro-Islamic factions fight back, and a civil war explodes in Iran.
  • Announcing their complete support for the new Marxist regime the Soviets start shipping arms to the government and troops move to the Iranian/Soviet border.
  • Following an "official request" from the new Iranian government for assistance, Soviet troops begin crossing the border into Iran. Troops are even diverted from Afghanistan.
  • The U.S. warns the Soviets to withdraw immediately. A vote in the Security Council of the U.N. to condemn the Soviets ends with the Soviets vetoing the resolution.
  • The U.S. gives the Soviets an ultimatum. Either withdraw from Iran or the U.S. will send in an invasion force to stop them.
  • The Soviets refuse to c.omply and so after 24 hours U.S. airborne and Marine forces land in Iran. Fighting is fierce as both Soviet and American troops must deal with pro-Islamic forces who put up a guerilla war against both sides.
  • NATO pledges to support the U.S. Shortly after it does so Soviet troops invade West Germany and northern Norway. World War III has begun.
  • Between the superior numbers of Soviet forces and guerilla resistance by the Islamic factions the U.S. offensive stalls and is pushed back short of Tehran.
  • Fearing Soviet hegemony in the Near East if they gain control of Iran the U.S. decides to initiate first use of tactical nuclear weapons targeting Soviet columns entering Iran from the mountain passes to the north.
  • The Soviets retaliate by launching a tactical nuclear attack against the carrier task forces supporting the U.S. invasion causing the destruction of two carriers and their support ships.
  • The Soviets then up the ante by using nuclear weapons to attack U.S. forces presently being based in Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E.
  • The U.S. retaliates by launching a nuclear attack that destroys Tehran.
  • Finally, the Soviets launch a first strike to take out U.S. and NATO nuclear capability. A strategic nuclear exchange that leaves tens of millions of dead occurs
How likely is this scenario based on what we know now?
 
How likely is this scenario based on what we know now?
I feel like the parts with the leftist revolution in Iran to be fairly realistic although I don’t think either of the world powers would intervene this heavily in it. Both governments in this period were still quite weary of starting a full blown nuclear war. The Soviets were already fighting and losing a major war in Afghanistan so I have no idea why they would risk so much to invade the even more difficult nation to invade of Iran. Also they would know that Iran was an American ally an support was likely however I also don’t think the Americans in this period would directly intervene with American troops in a war like this against Soviet forces major military supplies is likely the max you would get.
 
The Iranian Air Force if able to have technical and weaponry support would be formidable as an opponent for the Soviets. For example the composition is as follows.
Air superiority Fighters. 79 F-14A with 274 AIM-54 and the ability to be airborne AWACS
Multirole fighters . F-4E 177 aircraft with Mavericks, AIM-7 and AIM-9. Pilots considered well trained
Multirole Fighter. F-4D 32 aircraft.
Light fighter. F-5E 181 and F-5 A/B 127 .
This is considerable numbers and does not include the F-16's already purchased or the AWACS currently on order and later sold to the Saudia Air Force.
THese would be delivered in 1979/1980 with 300 F-16 ordered with 140 built and ready for delivery.

So a 1980 invasion with all pilots etc allowed to fight the IRAF would be formidable as an opponent.
The F-14 AIM-54 combination would literally decimate the Soviet ground attack aircraft especially since the missile resupply and upgrades would be given.
The F-4E with AIM-7 and AIM-9 would be a match for the Mig-23/21 fighters and overmatch the ground attack aircraft.

The air defence of Iran is considerable.
MIM-24 HAWK batteries, not sure on numbers but enough.
Rapier. 30 plus Launchers. the accuracy of which would seriously hurt the Soviets.

Vehicles.
700 plus Chieftans which could kill any Soviet tank and also able to be killed by T-72 family.
170 approx M-60
Artillery is considerable with
440 M109
30 M107
30 M115

50 plus Cobra Attack Helo etc

The Iranian armed forces would take dozens of Soviet divisions and thousands of aircraft to win. The losses would be huge.
The USA would happily provide weapons and equipment in return for combat data.
 
Even if only 1/3 of Iranian airforce is fully operational it would be a huge obstacle to Soviets
The terrain is not very suitable to armored warfare either
Plus objectives are not clear , Iranians are very nationalistic even the commies won’t follow Moscow dictates
 
Sounds nearly like the scenario presented in that legendary AH film Threads except a pro-Shah American-backed coup displaces the then-young Islamic revolutionary government, hoping to restore the Shah back to power. The Soviets invade, hoping to put back the ayatollah in power. Unfortunately, as we all know in the film, both sides bite off more than they can chew!
 
Sounds nearly like the scenario presented in that legendary AH film Threads except a pro-Shah American-backed coup displaces the then-young Islamic revolutionary government, hoping to restore the Shah back to power. The Soviets invade, hoping to put back the ayatollah in power. Unfortunately, as we all know in the film, both sides bite off more than they can chew!
Ayatollah in Iran couldn’t be a bad thing for soviet despite his virulently anti communist views
But I doubt if they will go with an invasion to put him in power
 
We might condemn the soviets but I don't think we'd help Iran, seeing as the government we'd be helping despises the US, meaning no ww3. At best, iran becomes the quagmire for the soviets and that leads to the states giving them money
 
Soviets militarily did win Afghanistan it’s their economy that collapsed in 1991 then they couldn’t write checks to kabul
I wouldn't exactly say they 'won' though. The Najibullah government didn't finally fall until 1992, but it wasn't like they were rolling back the insurgency in any real way prior to that. They were able to conduct limited offensive operations like the destruction of the Paghman complex, but aside from that they could do very little but garrison strongpoints against insurgent attacks. Soviet funding post-'89 allowed the government in Kabul to keep the troops paid and the planes flying, but it was not gaining any serious victories that weren't holding actions really. Even prior to the dissolution of the USSR, events like the siege of Khost showed that the Republic was running on limited time. The insurgents could afford to take their time, but Soviet aid couldn't be continued indefinitely. As shown ITTL, as soon as the aid stopped flowing then the Republic simply could not muster enough strength to prevent an unravelling and then collapse. At best, the Soviets and their allies managed to achieve a stalemate.
 
I wouldn't exactly say they 'won' though. The Najibullah government didn't finally fall until 1992, but it wasn't like they were rolling back the insurgency in any real way prior to that. They were able to conduct limited offensive operations like the destruction of the Paghman complex, but aside from that they could do very little but garrison strongpoints against insurgent attacks. Soviet funding post-'89 allowed the government in Kabul to keep the troops paid and the planes flying, but it was not gaining any serious victories that weren't holding actions really. Even prior to the dissolution of the USSR, events like the siege of Khost showed that the Republic was running on limited time. The insurgents could afford to take their time, but Soviet aid couldn't be continued indefinitely. As shown ITTL, as soon as the aid stopped flowing then the Republic simply could not muster enough strength to prevent an unravelling and then collapse. At best, the Soviets and their allies managed to achieve a stalemate.
Right it was no great triumph for Soviets for sure but the notion that soviet army was routed by ragtag militias and fled in disorder is also false.
politically they lost in the long run ( within 5yrs) but so did the afghan warlords , practically nobody won.
 
The idea that Marxists coukd seize control--even partly--of Iran in 1980 seems to me extremely implausible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peopl...tion_of_Iran#December_1979_referendum_to_1981 really does *not* give the impression the People's Mojahedin (if that's what you mean by "Marxists") were any match for Khomeini, and indeed they resorted to violence mostly after 1981 after the regime had made peaceful opposition impossible. In 1980 they were still clinging to Banisadr as their (feeble) shield against Khomeini.

As for the "offical" Communists, the Tudeh, they were just pathetic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tudeh_Party_of_Iran#Islamic_Republic They did everything possible to appease the clerical regime (at the behest of or at least in harmony with the USSR's pro-Khomeini policy) but were suppressed anyway.
 
While the leadership of Iran has been dismal the people are pretty darn good. I have worked with a fair few Iranians over the years and their hospitality is incredible. Their patriotism (even while hating the leadership) is also strong. A Soviet Invasion would be a holy war and even the secular Iranians would sign up in droves.
 
If the US counterinvades Iran, I highly doubt they would even try to push on Tehran, or even try to directly engage Soviet troops. They’d more likely limit their invasion to the key Iranian Gulf Coast ports to protect Persian Gulf oil traffic and the Straits of Hormuz and leave it up to the Soviets to attack first if they wanted to try to take them.

Also, I can’t see NATO at large being willing to support the US. Certain members, like Britain, France, and Canada, sure, but not the organization as a whole.
 
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