Soviets gets obliterated but Germany still losses.

Now, the most generic way for people to have a Germany win WWII scenario is by having the soviet union to get in some kind of peace treaty with the Third reich and thus making the allies lose the willpower to continue the war, however what if the following scenario happens:

The Third Reich does not takes Moscow in '41, as OTL, but they do capture baku and Astrakhan on the fall blau as in some of the scenarios made by @Onkel Willie . As the war progresses the germans continues pushing into the soviet union, capturing Murmansk, Leningrad and coming really close of taking Moscow, but the allies keep their progress in the west by enacting the operations torch and overlord, and with a strong pression from the west the german war effort collapses and the soviet union manages to push them back.

Now the war is over, there are some things to consider:

1- Basically everything from Murmansk to Baku was under german occupation and it was crushed on the german retreat, and while Moscow was not captured, the city was susceptible to heavy air bombardment.

2- Do the allies allows the soviets to take over the 1940 borders, or they will protect the Baltics, Moldova and eastern Poland from the soviet agression?

3- How this will affect the soviet union? In otl they plundered eastern europe and brought a lot of spoils, both ideologically for defeating ultranationalism and stabilishing their puppet states, and economical ones for creating the Comecon and looting resources from their puppets, including "prize" platoons responsible for looting german machinery.

4- How does Germany fare? Is de Oder-niesse line still going to happen, or the original allied plan to restore germany to it's 1937 borders will be enacted? Can Prussia be split between lithuania and Poland since the soviets are not able to take over it?
 
Well, if Soviets loose, then they are disposable. They were kinda apart from the other allies, so they would probably go with a "get some war reparations and then f*** off and leave the Balts and the Poles alone. This would change the whole Cold war thing : you have an anti-American middle power in Russia that feels cheated on.


So, from my PoV

1 : from what you tell, yes
2 : they will probably tell USSR to free those states, since they are not even under Soviet occupation at the end of the war. (Oh and by the way Korea is probably not split, and since there is a different/no Cold war, you can have an Social-Nationalist government happen in China)
3 : I don't have enough knowledge of Soviet Union's economy to tell, but I guess it's kinda going to be like Germany in the 20's
4 : the points of the peace conferency will probably be :
-give the Jews something (preferably in a great yiddish center) OR put them back in Poland, they were doing great in it (with, of course, no disctinction made between Sefarads and Ashkenaz, because when a US President draws a border in Europe, it's often a silly one
-get rid a Prussia, because it was a nest for troubles of all kind, they will probably offer a small bit to Lithuania and a bigger one to Poland
-Austria is probably not splited (or at least not in the same way) because the point of Austria split was that an aligned Austria was dangerous for the opposite side. So no/a different Treaty for an Austrian State, that probably won't include neutrality and zero tolerance towards monarchists.
-France will want Saarland, it's obvious, "at least the time to rebuild"

And probably other things that I missed ...
 
Well, if Soviets loose, then they are disposable. They were kinda apart from the other allies, so they would probably go with a "get some war reparations and then f*** off and leave the Balts and the Poles alone. This would change the whole Cold war thing : you have an anti-American middle power in Russia that feels cheated on.


So, from my PoV


-give the Jews something (preferably in a great yiddish center) OR put them back in Poland, they were doing great in it (with, of course, no disctinction made between Sefarads and Ashkenaz, because when a US President draws a border in Europe, it's often a silly one
-get rid a Prussia, because it was a nest for troubles of all kind, they will probably offer a small bit to Lithuania and a bigger one to Poland
-Austria is probably not splited (or at least not in the same way) because the point of Austria split was that an aligned Austria was dangerous for the opposite side. So no/a different Treaty for an Austrian State, that probably won't include neutrality and zero tolerance towards monarchists.
-France will want Saarland, it's obvious, "at least the time to rebuild"

And probably other things that I missed ...
You realize that 90% of the Polish Jews were already dead by the war’s end right? If the Soviets were defeated, that number would probably be 99%. Pretty much all the Eastern European Jews would be gone. I don’t see why Austria wouldn’t be separated from Germany like OTL. The only reason I can think of to not split it would be to combine it with an independent Bavaria as part of a more thorough partition of Germany.
 
You realize that 90% of the Polish Jews were already dead by the war’s end right? If the Soviets were defeated, that number would probably be 99%. Pretty much all the Eastern European Jews would be gone. I don’t see why Austria wouldn’t be separated from Germany like OTL. The only reason I can think of to not split it would be to combine it with an independent Bavaria as part of a more thorough partition of Germany.

I know, but Poland was the only state where Jews were kinda welcome even from the middle age. If there is a place in Europe to put them all (if you want to "store" them), it's Poland. They can't reasonnably put them in Germany, not without intense denazification, and in any other state people would be like "it's an invasion" but Poland already had many Jews. They are all gone, yes, but does it mean there will never be Jews again ? Probably not

I never said Austria would not be apart from Germany, I said Austria would not be split. Austria was split between four occupation zones like Germany was, I'm saying this will either not occur or be resolved differently.
 
Here are my thoughts:
A problem with such a scenario is the fact that when the Germans collapse, the Soviets are still going to push, taking Eastern Europe all the way to Belarus and Ukraine. It is likely, though, that with the Soviet Union approaching collapse and a scorched earth policy their advance would be quite slow. Assuming the front before the German collapse was approximately the A-A line without Moscow, the USSR could probably reach the pre-war border and take Finland as well.
In the final treaty, the most likely borders would be the interwar borders, with Germany being occupied and losing East Prussia to Poland and Lithuania.
 
You realize that 90% of the Polish Jews were already dead by the war’s end right? If the Soviets were defeated, that number would probably be 99%. Pretty much all the Eastern European Jews would be gone. I don’t see why Austria wouldn’t be separated from Germany like OTL. The only reason I can think of to not split it would be to combine it with an independent Bavaria as part of a more thorough partition of Germany.
Well... not to be morbid, but from a strict viability perspective Eastern Europe being... hollowed out would make it look more attractive for forming a Hebrew state whole cloth. No persisting cultural baggage to feel "invaded" or diluted by the waves of new settlers, more equitable distribution of land, ect.
 
Now, the most generic way for people to have a Germany win WWII scenario is by having the soviet union to get in some kind of peace treaty with the Third reich and thus making the allies lose the willpower to continue the war, however what if the following scenario happens:

The Third Reich does not takes Moscow in '41, as OTL, but they do capture baku and Astrakhan on the fall blau as in some of the scenarios made by @Onkel Willie . As the war progresses the germans continues pushing into the soviet union, capturing Murmansk, Leningrad and coming really close of taking Moscow, but the allies keep their progress in the west by enacting the operations torch and overlord, and with a strong pression from the west the german war effort collapses and the soviet union manages to push them back.

Now the war is over, there are some things to consider:

1- Basically everything from Murmansk to Baku was under german occupation and it was crushed on the german retreat, and while Moscow was not captured, the city was susceptible to heavy air bombardment.

2- Do the allies allows the soviets to take over the 1940 borders, or they will protect the Baltics, Moldova and eastern Poland from the soviet agression?

3- How this will affect the soviet union? In otl they plundered eastern europe and brought a lot of spoils, both ideologically for defeating ultranationalism and stabilishing their puppet states, and economical ones for creating the Comecon and looting resources from their puppets, including "prize" platoons responsible for looting german machinery.

4- How does Germany fare? Is de Oder-niesse line still going to happen, or the original allied plan to restore germany to it's 1937 borders will be enacted? Can Prussia be split between lithuania and Poland since the soviets are not able to take over it?
Hard to figure out how this can happen.

If your POD is in 1941 as OTL, when France has fallen, there is no way the western allies, i.e. the British empire and the US, will be able to pay the tremendous price it would cost them to succeed in landing armies on the european continent and defeating Nazi Germany alone.

OTL, the wide majority of the german army was and remained engaged in the east front, and 80% of german casualties were inflicted by the soviet army. This was where most of the war effort was made and this was where the true decision for the war in Europe was made.

The US and Britain alone will not be able to defeat a Germany that successfully conquers and keeps western USSR and its oil resources.

The only very thin possibility to have it on the paper would be France and Belgium and Netherlands not conquered in 1940.

The allies would make a deal with Germany in 1940, accepting its conquest of western Poland, in order to have time to build up their military, and would give an implicit green light for Nazi Germany to jump at the USSR’s throat, and then they would stab Germany in the back. Or rather they would try to stab Germany in the back, because the preparation of that kind of move can’t go unnoticed.
And anyway it would be very unwise to wait for Germany’s progress in the USSR to backstab Germany because Germany would then be stronger and it will take much time to bring in significant US military forces.
 
The US and Britain alone will not be able to defeat a Germany that successfully conquers and keeps western USSR and its oil resources.
Or Greater Germany gets an instant sunshine wakeup call in August 1945, even if D-Day hasn't happened yet.

How long can the 3rd Reich hold out, with a couple of cities getting glassed each month, every month?

The US just didn't invent the Atomic Bomb, but the infrastructure to make a lot of them
 
Or Greater Germany gets an instant sunshine wakeup call in August 1945, even if D-Day hasn't happened yet.

How long can the 3rd Reich hold out, with a couple of cities getting glassed each month, every month?

The US just didn't invent the Atomic Bomb, but the infrastructure to make a lot of them
Would the US nuke Germany if Germany had the means to retaliate on Britain? Maybe not with nukes, but what about nerve gas? The British would probably argue against this course of action.
 
Would the US nuke Germany if Germany had the means to retaliate on Britain? Maybe not with nukes, but what about nerve gas? The British would probably argue against this course of action.
Their nuclear program would not have resulted in a bomb for over a decade. The Japanese effort was actually closer than the Germans would ever get, not that they could have been able to make one before their cities would be wrecked

Nerve gas is ill suited to use by aerial dispersion by bombs, and the fact that the German stockpile of gas was tiny
 
Or Greater Germany gets an instant sunshine wakeup call in August 1945, even if D-Day hasn't happened yet.

How long can the 3rd Reich hold out, with a couple of cities getting glassed each month, every month?

The US just didn't invent the Atomic Bomb, but the infrastructure to make a lot of them
Where did you find that a Germany that obliterated the USSR would stay seated and watch itself be bombed by the US and Britain ?

Just imagine german armed forces on the western coast of Europe 2 or 3 times as many as OTL and think about it again.

As far as the A bomb is concerned, do you know how long it took and how much it cost to build one in the first half of the 1940’s ?
 
In the final treaty, the most likely borders would be the interwar borders, with Germany being occupied and losing East Prussia to Poland and Lithuania.
More likely, Poland gets all of it (for which there is some historical basis anyway) - they suffered most from German aggression.

Perhaps Lithuania gets Memel/Klaipeda to have seaport, but otherwise, that would be about it.

Otherwise, you're probably right, more or less. Interwar borders for the most part. Finland may well have to pull back to the 1941 border, depending on how strongly the Soviets claw their way back.
 
Would the US nuke Germany if Germany had the means to retaliate on Britain? Maybe not with nukes, but what about nerve gas? The British would probably argue against this course of action.
The original reason that they made the bomb to start with was they were afraid the Germans would get it. It was made to be used on Germany and that was a joint decision of the US and the UK don't know how much percent of the u.s. put on them but when they decided to use a lot of the Manhattan Project scientists were very upset so I think it would have been used on Germany. According to how it could really limit German retaliation not stop it but limit it.
 
Where did you find that a Germany that obliterated the USSR would stay seated and watch itself be bombed by the US and Britain ?

Just imagine german armed forces on the western coast of Europe 2 or 3 times as many as OTL and think about it again.

As far as the A bomb is concerned, do you know how long it took and how much it cost to build one in the first half of the 1940’s ?
Yeah, it took the US till July 1945 from a start in 1941, and the US did spend billions on it, though less than on the B-29 program.

OTL, most of the Luftwaffe was on the Western Front already, trying, and failing to stop BC and the USAAF

Occupying the USSR will still take a lot of manpower away from the Heer in the West.

Like I said, there may not be D-Day, but after August 1, 1945, the Luftwaffe will have to be able to stop

Every

Single

Bomber

lest a city disappear under a mushroom cloud.


The Germans OTL, or in this ATL, would have no idea of an Atomic Bomb being deployed against them. The Japanese ignored 3 plane elements of B-29s doing recon flights.
Whoops.

Before the Wehraboos get the thought that the Me-262 and other Wunderwaffe paper napkin projects defend the airspace over Greater Germany, those 1942 butterflies flap for the US as well.
OTL the XB-36 was put on a lower priority, as correctly, it just wasn't going to be needed.

Not so in this timeline. Consolidated-Vultee get the funding, and XB-36 work stays uninterrupted at San Diego rather than moved to Fort Worth
 
I know, but Poland was the only state where Jews were kinda welcome even from the middle age. If there is a place in Europe to put them all (if you want to "store" them), it's Poland. They can't reasonnably put them in Germany, not without intense denazification, and in any other state people would be like "it's an invasion" but Poland already had many Jews. They are all gone, yes, but does it mean there will never be Jews again ? Probably not

I never said Austria would not be apart from Germany, I said Austria would not be split. Austria was split between four occupation zones like Germany was, I'm saying this will either not occur or be resolved differently.
The 20th Century isn’t the Middle Ages. Poland doesn’t want any foreign Jews and the Jews don’t want to go there anyways. If you just want to dump Jews somewhere put them in America or East Prussia. Or better yet, let them stay in the country they have the citizenship of.
 
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Poland doesn’t want any foreign Jews and the Jews don’t want to go there anyways. If you just want to dump Jews somewhere put them in America or East Prussia. Or better yet, let them stay in the country they have the citizenship of.
I was just saying it looked coherent, sorry for suggesting stuff that seemed appropriate. I was not all like YOU SHOULD FORCE JEWS TO GO IN POLAND IN THIS CASE, I was just thinking they could go there thinking it's safe, if the survivors in German areas were not trusting their neighbours anymore or something.
 
Reminds me of "Anglo-American Nazi War". (And while we're at it, why didn't the WAllies nuke TTL Nazi Germany in 1945?)
 
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