Soviets do semi appeasement of Germany

What if the Soviets, hoping to delay a Barbarossa until 1942 or 1943, try to avoid antagonizing Germany. This would involve:

a) avoid occupation of Bukovina when occupying Bessarbia (this way annoying to Hitler as it was more than expected)
b) Not pressing on the issues of Bulgaria and Finland during the Molotov visit in 1940 (also annoying Hitler)
c) Lightly occupy the areas along the new border with Germany (hold the armies back a bit, 100 miles fro, the border)

The goal is to convince Germany that the Soviets are no immediate threat to Germany and the Germans could do a strategy of trying to defeat Britain first, giving the Soviets a year or two more to rearm.
 
Hitler is even more optimistic about invasion of Soviet Union , seeing Soviet actions as signs of USSR weakness?
That could be. But he already thought it would be easy. In OTL he thought Soviet positions annoying (and he thought it would be easy). So it was an easy decision to take a break from Britain to invade the Soviet Union.

Thinking it might be easier for Hitler to consider doing a Mediterranean campaign in 1941 and invading the Soviets in 1942.
 
That could be. But he already thought it would be easy. In OTL he thought Soviet positions annoying (and he thought it would be easy). So it was an easy decision to take a break from Britain to invade the Soviet Union.

Thinking it might be easier for Hitler to consider doing a Mediterranean campaign in 1941 and invading the Soviets in 1942.
The occupation of Bukovina and the continuous less appeasing trade relations were a gun to the head from a Nazi regime.
This, a temporary detour could have been a viable option. However, I dont know of any references to Hitlers thoughts of the timing of Barbarossa prior to the invasion of Bukovina.
 
Barbarossa wasn't affected by soviet actions although Hitler tried to sell it that way for his allies for obvious reasons.

Hitler will still attack in 1941 but, if the soviets are just lightly guarding the border, they'll probably suffer less casualties in the first months.
 
Well the most important Soviet action is to sign a commercial agreement with Germany whereby German debts are extended and payments are demanded while the Soviets continue to supply Germany with fuel and food.

Barbarossa in 1941 was mainly because imo Germany ran out of credit for the Soviets and would have had to start paying their debts to the Soviets.
 

Deleted member 1487

It might actually make the Nazi-Soviet Axis Pact negotiations work out. Supposedly Hitler was convinced of Stalin's untrustworthiness and incompatibility as a ally over the Bukowina annexations and demands during the Pact negotiations. Remove those sticking points and Hitler might well agree to a deal with the Soviets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Axis_talks#The_October_Stalin–Ribbentrop_exchange
Meeting with Benito Mussolini, Ribbentrop explained the German view of the meetings, that the acid test would be the Soviets' stand on the Balkans.[50] With the Balkans and the Bosporus a potential "dangerous overlapping of interests", if the Soviets backed away from it, it would be a peaceful and even preferable alternative to an invasion.[50]

Hitler revealed to Mussolini that he did not expect to accommodate the Soviets beyond forcing Turkey to yield to some guarantees on the Bosporus.[50] Nor did he want Stalin taking a Romanian entry point to the Bosporus, stating "one Romanian bird in the hand is worth more than two Russians in the bush."[55] But Hitler stated that he was skeptical because he believed that Stalin was obsessed with the Danube and Bulgaria.[55] Germany was aware, however, that the Soviets had attempted to extend guarantees to Bulgaria to become its ally and that Bulgaria had turned them down.[61]

And IOTL Stalin was indeed obsessed with the Straits:
Molotov agreed with Hitler that there were no unresolved problems between the countries, except about Finland.[69] When Molotov returned to his hotel, he stated that he was "relieved at Hitler's amiability."[61] In a telegram to Molotov that night, Stalin insisted that the security of the USSR cannot be ensured "without securing tranquility in the area of the Straits", referring the Bosporus straits for entry into the Black Sea.[1] That was linked directly with the Soviet-Bulgarian agreement for passage of Soviet troops for "the defense of entry into the Black Sea."[1] Stalin added that "this question still bears current importance and does not allow any procrastination."[1]

Molotov conveyed Stalin's interest in reviewing the status of the Bosporus, and pressed for a guarantee for Bulgaria, at least in principle.[73] Molotov later noted that Hitler became "markedly agitated" at the request to revoke guarantees to Romania.[61] Molotov stated Stalin's wish to grant a guarantee to Bulgaria similar to the one that Germany and Italy had granted to Romania.[61] Hitler pointed out that the Soviets had entered Bukovina in Romania, which went beyond the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.[75] Hitler stated the parties had made a prior oral agreement that the former Austrian territories, such as the Balkan states within the Austro-Hungarian empire, were to fall within the German sphere of influence.[68] Hitler pointed out that a primary goal of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was to restore the old empires of the countries.[68] Stalin, still hopeful to get a draft agreement, was monitoring the conversations by telegram and sent a telegram to Molotov to remind Hitler of the importance of securing the Bosporus, explaining the events of the Crimean War.[61]

Finland too was a major sticking point:
Molotov and Hitler resumed their discussions the next morning.[72] Molotov demanded to know why German troops were occupying Finland, while Hitler replied that they were traveling through Finland to Norway and wondered whether the Soviets intended to go to war over Finland.[72] While Hitler agreed that Finland was within the Soviets' sphere of influence, he also stressed that Germany had a legitimate wartime interest in Finland's nickel and wood supply and that any new conflict in the Baltics would lead to a severe strain in relations.[69] Molotov concluded that nothing good could come from further talks about Finland and stated that he saw no signs of any resumption of a Soviet-Finland conflict.[73] According to Hitler, however, Molotov stated that "Russia felt herself again endangered by Finland, Russia should be able to liquidate Finland" which for him "was the first question which I found difficult to answer. But I could not do otherwise than refuse this".[74]

But again the issue with Bulgaria and the Straits was the biggest problem:
A telegram Molotov sent to Stalin on the meeting with Hitler underscored "Hitler's great interest in reaching an agreement and strengthening friendly relations with the USSR with respect to spheres of influence."[73] Molotov stated that his talk with neither Hitler nor Ribbentrop produced the desired results, as the issues with Turkey and the Balkans had not been addressed.[1]

Hitler had already issued a secret directive on the eventual attempts to invade the Soviet Union.[79][81] However, he had not yet abandoned the possibility of other political outcomes, talking still of a "great worldwide coalition that stretched from Yokohama to Spain", but he had resolved to not give up the Balkans.[82]

In the meantime, the Soviets immediately summoned the Bulgarian ambassador to the Foreign Ministry, stating that the Soviets needed to do a deal with the Bulgarians before they joined the Axis and that Germany was attempting to make them a puppet state.[82] The Bulgarians turned down the offer and leaked it to Germany.[82] Hitler still hoped to dissuade Stalin from giving guarantees to Bulgaria if they could solve the Bosporus issue and pressed the Bulgarian ambassador that the Soviets could be persuaded against resistance if the Bulgarians joined the pact, while warning about the horrors of a Soviet occupation.[82]

Hitler, however, saw the Soviet territorial ambitions in the Balkans as a challenge to German interests and saw its plan as effectively making Bulgaria into an adjunct of the Axis pact.[6] On several occasions, Molotov asked German officials for their response to Moscow's counterproposals, but Germany never answered them.[6][84][86][87] Germany's refusal to respond to the counterproposal worsened relations between the countries.[88] Regarding the counterproposal, Hitler remarked to his top military chiefs that Stalin "demands more and more", "he's a cold-blooded blackmailer" and that "a German victory has become unbearable for Russia" so that "she must be brought to her knees as soon as possible."[7]

So if you remove Soviet demands regarding the Balkans and perhaps the Straits there would be the strong chance there would be a political alliance and stop the invasion preparations.


Barbarossa in 1941 was mainly because imo Germany ran out of credit for the Soviets and would have had to start paying their debts to the Soviets.
It was not. If they opted not to launch Barbarossa they could have afforded the payments. Since they chose to invade for wider political issues they instead used their resources to invade rather than pay up.
 
It might actually make the Nazi-Soviet Axis Pact negotiations work out. Supposedly Hitler was convinced of Stalin's untrustworthiness and incompatibility as a ally over the Bukowina annexations and demands during the Pact negotiations. Remove those sticking points and Hitler might well agree to a deal with the Soviets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Axis_talks#The_October_Stalin–Ribbentrop_exchange

That is interesting stuff. It seems stifling for Hitler and the Nazis grand ambitions though to not have the east to play their "Living Space" games. I wonder if the negotiations were just to help convince himself and others that invasion was the only possible route, would have been mad if the Soviets were actually agreeable to all his wishes.

If Hitler really was willing to deal, then Stalin gets the worst leader ever award for killing double digit millions of his people and ravaging a big chunk of his country arguing over influence in Bulgaria.
 
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Deleted member 1487

That is interesting stuff. It seems stifling for Hitler and the Nazis grand ambitions though to not have the east to play their "Living Space" games. I wonder if the negotiations were just to help convince himself and others that invasion was the only possible route, would have been mad if the Soviets were actually agreeable to all his wishes.

If Hitler really was willing to deal, then Stalin get the worst leader ever award for killing double digit millions of his people and ravaging a big chunk of his country arguing over influence in Bulgaria.
Hitler was kind of all over the place. He did pretty much have a sufficiently powerful zone of control and area to 'colonize' within his pre-Barbarossa boarders if he could end the war with Britain and get Stalin onside. Hitler did already betray his ideology by working with Stalin, which did alienate both Mussolini and to a larger degree Japan when he effectively broke the Anti-ComIntern Pact by cutting a deal with Stalin. Hitler really didn't need to negotiate with Stalin to convince anyone of anything given that he was already dictator and in charge of foreign policy; as it was he seems to have been legitimately interested in the deal and genuinely enraged that Stalin proved to be so intransigent on issues like the Balkans, which really did push Hitler over the edge.
I don't think anyone ever should call Stalin a smart man, his war leadership repeatedly demonstrated otherwise, though it is pretty clear that Stalin did not understand how hair-triggered Hitler was over the Balkans situation.
 
What if the Soviets, hoping to delay a Barbarossa until 1942 or 1943, try to avoid antagonizing Germany. This would involve:

a) avoid occupation of Bukovina when occupying Bessarbia (this way annoying to Hitler as it was more than expected)
b) Not pressing on the issues of Bulgaria and Finland during the Molotov visit in 1940 (also annoying Hitler)
c) Lightly occupy the areas along the new border with Germany (hold the armies back a bit, 100 miles fro, the border)

The goal is to convince Germany that the Soviets are no immediate threat to Germany and the Germans could do a strategy of trying to defeat Britain first, giving the Soviets a year or two more to rearm.
This would be a big boon for the Soviet War Effort. They could easily afford loosing some real estate faster than in OTL, in return for fewer troops getting encircled.
 
my view when Germany dealt away their trading bloc of Poland, Finland, and the Baltics they created economic problem(s) that drove the invasion (irrespective of ideology) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi–Soviet_economic_relations_(1934–41)

my scenario is always a pact to dismantle Poland and Romania (as the two were in a defensive pact) leaving other countries out of any Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?

think historically the only way the Soviets could have bought time against a German invasion was to engage the British or at least a feint in that direction (a three decades earlier move into Afghanistan?)

(of course Hitler would allow something like that to continue uninterrupted)
 

Anchises

Banned
my view when Germany dealt away their trading bloc of Poland, Finland, and the Baltics they created economic problem(s) that drove the invasion (irrespective of ideology) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi–Soviet_economic_relations_(1934–41)

my scenario is always a pact to dismantle Poland and Romania (as the two were in a defensive pact) leaving other countries out of any Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?

think historically the only way the Soviets could have bought time against a German invasion was to engage the British or at least a feint in that direction (a three decades earlier move into Afghanistan?)

(of course Hitler would allow something like that to continue uninterrupted)

If the Soviets do something that is believable enough to satisfy the Nazis than we won't see Lend and Lease or anything like it. Great Britain will feel threatened and its not like anybody really liked Stalin.

I could honestly see a "Japan first" strategy by the USA ITTL hoping that the totalitarian warmongers exhausts themselves in the gigantic carnage of the Eastern Front.
 
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