Soviet Victory in the Cold War with a POD not earlier than 1963/1968

I had a discussion about this topic lately, and I asked myself: How realistic is a Soviet Cold War victory with the earliest POD just before the Soviet crushing of the Prague Spring (it should be some kind of mirror to OTLs USA victory, with Europe going red and pro-soviet, and some states leaving a now socialist US)?

If this seems to far fletched for you, then take a POD in 1964, before Kruchchev was deposed (but this gives a few minus points :))
 

destiple

Banned
no chance IMHO soviets were simply too outmatched quantitatively or qualitatively to ever take on NATO and win at anytime during the cold war
 
no chance IMHO soviets were simply too outmatched quantitatively or qualitatively to ever take on NATO and win at anytime during the cold war

Are you sure? The Cold War was essentially a battle of ideologies. To have the Soviet Union win, Socialism must triumph over Capitalism in the pollitical, economic or military conflict. A lot of the Cold War competition was about prestige.

The USSR had a more stable economy, so a major economic crisis in the west might do the trick. Or some heavy international scandals on the scale of Watergate, combined with a longer and more brutal Vietnam War might bring the west to their knees. Or if the West suffered from a heavy blow in prestige (more failed wars in the third world, puting a drain on the US economy and hurting the morale and believe of western people into an 'imperialist capitalist' system). Or maybe the USSR is more successfull in the conflict for the third world, leading to most of those countries siding with the USSR, and the Soviet sanctions which follow this brings the west down (because of lack of resources, cheap workforce, loss of markets and allies, etc.).

Just some of my random ideas. What do you think about that?
 
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destiple

Banned
western world despite its setbacks had far more resilience and deeper pockets than USSR,
USSR was essentially a eurasian regional power with little power projection capability beyond its immediate borders
at best it could hope for survival , world dominance was myth created by the west just as they created myths about the military poweress of nazi germany
 
  • worse performance in SE Asia for the US and allies
  • US dragged into Iran at the revolution
  • Soviets avoid Afghanistan
  • Soviets avoid Chernobyl
  • Gorbachev actually takes reforming seriously or you will need someone to start reforms earlier.
    Only problem with that is give them a reason too start earlier
  • have the Soviets do more with the natural resources
  • Oil Crisis is worse, longer lasting
  • have three mile island go full on meltdown
  • The US decay is even worse .. Detroit, NYC, and other major cities with serious disrepair
You will have to discredit the USA .. Keep apartheid polices .. race riots that are suppressed .. heavy handed style.. Make the US even more imperialist to the developing world.


and even at that - between the USA, Canada, UK, France, West Germany, Japan .. that's most of the worlds wealth right there.

on the flip side. the soviets need to work on its image a bit.. pull back from the police state mantra..
 
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  • worse performance in SE Asia for the US and allies
  • US dragged into Iran at the revolution
  • Soviets avoid Afghanistan
  • Soviets avoid Chernobyl
  • Gorbachev actually takes reforming seriously or you will need someone to start reforms earlier.
    Only problem with that is give them a reason too start earlier
  • have the Soviets do more with the natural resources
  • Oil Crisis is worse, longer lasting
  • have three mile island go full on meltdown
  • The US decay is even worse .. Detroit, NYC, and other major cities with serious disrepair
You will have to discredit the USA .. Keep apartheid polices .. race riots that are suppressed .. heavy handed style.. Make the US even more imperialist to the developing world.


and even at that - between the USA, Canada, UK, France, West Germany, Japan .. that's most of the worlds wealth right there.

on the flip side. the soviets need to work on its image a bit.. pull back from the police state mantra..

Very good ideas. While an improverished, proto-fascist USA might not lead directly to Western Europe or Japan to go red, it will certainly discredit capitalism as a whole. And this, combined with domestic unrest and economic crisis could be enough to make these nations go socialist.
 
  • worse performance in SE Asia for the US and allies
  • US dragged into Iran at the revolution
  • Soviets avoid Afghanistan
  • Soviets avoid Chernobyl
  • Gorbachev actually takes reforming seriously or you will need someone to start reforms earlier.
    Only problem with that is give them a reason too start earlier
  • have the Soviets do more with the natural resources
  • Oil Crisis is worse, longer lasting
  • have three mile island go full on meltdown
  • The US decay is even worse .. Detroit, NYC, and other major cities with serious disrepair
Are these independent PODs for multiple Soviet Victory scenarios, or rather different things in one scenario?
 
Are these independent PODs for multiple Soviet Victory scenarios, or rather different things in one scenario?
i'd take it as a whole but you might be able to get a few of those combined to help.


its still going to be tough, the USA is big, resources.. lots of people.. but it could be possible:
red scare goes full tilt stupid..
Have Bay of Pigs be more front page news and a disaster
Vietnam longer .. then Iran conflict .. you could have other areas as well.
segregationist USA more of a police state
Automation removes lots of those low paying / semi middle class jobs.. rich keep getting richer
large areas become no better than Mississippi
Stronger more oppressive race riots. not just burn Detroit.. many major cities burn - almost open race warfare

just everything will have to go wrong for the USA and everything right for the USSR
 
Have America fail to maintain it's infrastructure and have it be really bad at education. Make social mobility really low. Have government be really plutocratic. Have Soviets go the way of China. Have Europe want to join East bloc for some reason. Make U.S. go isolationist and focus on latin America.
 

destiple

Banned
USSR has to have very limited objectives too, no more parking tanks on the channel coast and bringing down USA

If its pays attention to domestic markets and keep all the SSR integrated economically
focuses on a leaner but more hard hitting military
keeps china in check by keeping it isolated
supports rebel factions and militias in bordering Muslim countries , keeps them divided and at odds with the west
better relations with Germany and France ( in contrast to UK, USA)
gets more economically involved with rest of Europe

then it will survive but will do quite well
 
Have America fail to maintain it's infrastructure and have it be really bad at education. Make social mobility really low. Have government be really plutocratic. Have Soviets go the way of China. Have Europe want to join East bloc for some reason. Make U.S. go isolationist and focus on latin America.

Yeah, a Plutocratic (or rather perceived Plutocratic in the minds of its people) USA will help greatly. And also the communist movement will present the USSR as democratic.

So you have the dictatorial and corrupt USA, against the democratic and friendly Soviet Union (at least it is perceived like that).
 
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