Soviet Union without WWII

Sir

Banned
In a timeline where World War Two is butterflied away or ends early, what becomes of the Soviet Union as a world power? How much better is the Societ economy without the horrible casualties and destruction of the eastern front? As a superpower, can it equal or surpass the United States?
 
The demographic crisis had already been set in motion by the huge number of deaths suffered during the Civil War and the First World War, so by end of the century, there will still likely be a negative population growth figure. WWII only accelerated the process.
 
The demographic crisis had already been set in motion by the huge number of deaths suffered during the Civil War and the First World War, so by end of the century, there will still likely be a negative population growth figure. WWII only accelerated the process.


Also the Stalinist Purges which the lack of WWII won't butterfly away.
 
Also the Stalinist Purges which the lack of WWII won't butterfly away.

The Purges had a negative effect on the population but not the growth, it wasn't really in the same range of effect as WWI or WWII.

The Soviet Union is less militarized which will solve a lot of problems down the line (economic reform namely, will be easier to maneuver). Also, a lot of industry that was being produced during the time won't be obliterated provided there isn't an analogue to the war. The Soviets will have a better and more stable harvest in the years to come.

Abroad, the Soviets will have significantly less influence. Eastern Europe will be in better shape as well and all indications were that they were on the rise. Depending on the circumstances that prevent WWII, I think the most drastic move Stalin would make is reclaiming the Baltic states, but his position isn't going to allow much more.

Domestically, Molotov doesn't get his rise and Beria won't have Stalin's favor, he'd probably get replaced by the beginning of the 40s. I'd add more but my laptop is dying. Consider however that the World War II is the most important event in Soviet history.
 
For the purposes of my comments let's say that Germany did not embark upon any further territorial ambitions after October 1939 and the war fizzled out after by mid-1940.

The purges would've happened but it is certain the generals who made such a name for themselves in World War Two would've remained obscure officers in some remote hellhole border region. Stalin himself would've lasted several years longer than he did in our time line, which would've ensured that the medical, scientific and Jewish communities in the Soviet Union would've effectively been wiped out, leaving the Soviet Union in an even worse state than it ended up in our time line.

Beria would've been in a much better position to take over the Soviet Union when Stalin died with the result that his reforms that he only briefly managed to introduce before he got executed would've seen the Soviet Union become more open economically and possibly politically but nothing like glastnost under Gorbachev. Probably more like the Chinese reforms of the late 1980s and the early 1990s.

The Soviet Union would not have been caught up in a Cold War with the United States so their military would not have been such a drain on the national economy so the standard of living of the average Soviet citizen in 1970 would've been about the same as the average Russian citizen today.

Technology generally would not have advanced as rapidly as it did as a result of the Cold War so it is likely that we would not be using the Internet as we know it today as it was Cold War requirements that led to the development of what we now call the Internet.

I doubt the Soviet Union would've broken up in 1991. Rather I think a federal system not unlike that in OTL Germany would've emerged with the various Soviet Socialist Republics controlling their own affairs on a day to day levels and having their own governments, parliaments, prime ministers and presidents.

It was the Second World War that acted as a catalyst for the anti-colonial movement so, without it, the expansion of the Soviet Union's influence in the Third World would've been far less because of Africa and Asia would've remained colonies for much longer than in OTL.

And Hitler would've been seen in a much better light with him being genuinely mourned by millions when he died, although the Czechs and Poles would've held parties and celebrated when they heard the news.
 
For the purposes of my comments let's say that Germany did not embark upon any further territorial ambitions after October 1939 and the war fizzled out after by mid-1940.

The purges would've happened but it is certain the generals who made such a name for themselves in World War Two would've remained obscure officers in some remote hellhole border region. Stalin himself would've lasted several years longer than he did in our time line, which would've ensured that the medical, scientific and Jewish communities in the Soviet Union would've effectively been wiped out, leaving the Soviet Union in an even worse state than it ended up in our time line.

SOunds reasonable.


Beria would've been in a much better position to take over the Soviet Union when Stalin died with the result that his reforms that he only briefly managed to introduce before he got executed would've seen the Soviet Union become more open economically and possibly politically but nothing like glastnost under Gorbachev. Probably more like the Chinese reforms of the late 1980s and the early 1990s.


Straight from Stalin to giving up on communism? Seems fast. Can you explain?


The Soviet Union would not have been caught up in a Cold War with the United States so their military would not have been such a drain on the national economy so the standard of living of the average Soviet citizen in 1970 would've been about the same as the average Russian citizen today.

Mmm, they would still be communists, with the supposed duty to fight the evuls of capitalism. And a big scary country.

And Stalin is a monster. He's going to cause trouble somewhere.


Technology generally would not have advanced as rapidly as it did as a result of the Cold War so it is likely that we would not be using the Internet as we know it today as it was Cold War requirements that led to the development of what we now call the Internet.


Not sure about the lack of a Cold War.

I doubt the Soviet Union would've broken up in 1991. Rather I think a federal system not unlike that in OTL Germany would've emerged with the various Soviet Socialist Republics controlling their own affairs on a day to day levels and having their own governments, parliaments, prime ministers and presidents.

Happy endings don't seem to jive with the Soviet Union. Nor does decentralization of power.

It was the Second World War that acted as a catalyst for the anti-colonial movement so, without it, the expansion of the Soviet Union's influence in the Third World would've been far less because of Africa and Asia would've remained colonies for much longer than in OTL.


Stronger empires holding on longer would be a fertile ground for communistic propaganda and proxies.

You could have a dozen Vietnams!


And Hitler would've been seen in a much better light with him being genuinely mourned by millions when he died, although the Czechs and Poles would've held parties and celebrated when they heard the news.

Mmm, even without WWII, his various genocides would have PR consequences.
 
Mmm, even without WWII, his various genocides would have PR consequences.

What genocides? Most of the deaths caused by Hitler and his regime are due to his obsession with racial superiority combined with an ongoing war (a loosing one at that). This goes both for the treatment of the east-European population ("sub humans") as well as for the final solution.

If Hitler doesn't go to war in the east than most of his victims will never be in his grasp (the Russian POWs, the forced laborers, the Jews, the Intellectuals, etc).

The people he would kill would most likely be German Jews, Communists, Social Democrats and so on. Although I imagine that he would just try to expel all the undesirables.
 
Mmm, they would still be communists, with the supposed duty to fight the evuls of capitalism. And a big scary country.

Doesn't anyone ever look at actual Soviet foreign policy in this period? Rabble Rabble...

I'm not sure that the USSR would become capitalist, but I agree it would destalinize very rapidly. Without WW2, there will be a great temptation to blame him for all the USSR's ills.

And Stalin is a monster. He's going to cause trouble somewhere.

Like that time he intervened to support the democratically elected government in Spain, or when he offered to defend Czechoslovakia only to see the West run screaming and tossing nations into Hitler's maw?
 
It depends on how WWII is butterflied. To me I think it'd be a scenario where the USSR would be in that ATL seen as the "great military that never actually fired a shot". The Soviet Union is unlikely in the extreme to start a general European war the way Nazi Germany did, and the USSR's unwillingness to do this and general isolation mean it will first last quite a bit longer without the destruction caused by the German invasion, and second it will be a formidable and silent dictatorship viewed in ATL Europe somewhere between North Korea and the Burman Junta.
 
Once Stalin finished his program of agricultural collectivization the chances of the USSR enjoying prosperity comparable to the US or other western nations was at an end.
 
Beria tried to introduce reforms in the brief period of time between Stalin's death and Khrushchev taking over. I doubt these reforms would've seen a major deviation from OTL.

The reason why there would've been no Cold War is the United States would've remained isolationist in its foreign policy outside of the Western Hemisphere if there had been no World War Two. There would've been no Marshall Plan, which gave them financial domination of Western Europe. The atomic bomb would not have progressed beyond testing stage and military technology would not have developed as quickly as it did in OTL without the Second World War. Also, Germany would've dominated central and eastern Europe. The Soviets would've never ended up in eastern Europe or gained the influence it did as the result of defeating the Nazis during World War Two.

Without the need to maintain such a huge military machine the standard of living for the average Soviet citizen would've improved much more than it did in OTL but I'm not suggesting they would've abandoned communism. More likely, they would've introduced something not unlike Hungary's "goulash communism" where limited private enterprise and political debate was tolerated.

If there had been no Second World War there would've been no Soviet intervention in Manchuria and Korea so I doubt Mao Tse-Tung would've won the Chinese Civil War and if there had been no Second World War the question of how China would've fared remains to be seen. Of course, a scenario where there is no Second World War doesn't rule out a Pacific War or a similar, more limited, war between Japan and the United States. A post-war Cold War scenario between the Soviet Union and the Japanese and/or Chinese may very well have occurred instead but I doubt it would've resulted in the same type of arms race as that which occurred between the United States and the Soviet Union in our time zone.

One unforeseen result of the Japanese defeat of the colonial powers in the opening stages of the Pacific War was that it blew apart the myth the white colonial powers were invincible. Once that myth was shattered the anti-colonial genie was released from the bottle and it couldn't be put back so if there was no Second World War that genie would still be in the bottle. Though I do believe decolonisation would've occurred I doubt it would've been as fast or as complete as it ended up being in OTL. And there would be no state of Israel, not least the Holocaust as we know it would never have taken place.

As for the question of Nazi Germany, I assumed that Poland was as far as the Nazis went and if that had been the case the Nazis were likely to have driven the majority of Jews out of the Third Reich, along with any other people they didn't like, and exterminated those who stayed behind. Thus, the Holocaust as we know it would never have taken place but genocide would've taken place against the Jews and the gypsies. Hitler would've been able to dismiss atrocity stories as exaggerations and communist propaganda so his reputation would've been battered but definitely not trashed beyond all recognition as in OTL.
 
Once Stalin finished his program of agricultural collectivization the chances of the USSR enjoying prosperity comparable to the US or other western nations was at an end.

Under Stalin I agree but after Stalin the standard of living for most Soviet people did improve considerably. Had the Russians not needed to spend so much money on their military they would've concentrated on improving the standard of living of the average Soviet citizen, if nothing else than to try and prove they were better than the capitalists at looking after their workers.
 
The world may end and time may cease, but it hasn't happened yet.

Yea, it's a bit surprising. We have an example of a communist regime decollectivizing land and now undergoing explosive growth. I'm not saying the USSR will do so, but polciies can be reversed. And of course no one had the American standard of living (outside of America, Canada, and maybe Australasia) until recently.

Germany in 1930 was poor by our standards. So was france. As for Italy...
 
Top