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How would the Soviet Union develop politicially and militarily, if no WW2 happens?
The (geo-)political situation:
- Central Europe is ruled by a heavily armed militarist German state. This could be a military dictatorship that resulted from a Reichswehr coup. A Nazi state where Hitler died after Fall Gelb or Rot and Göring made peace.
A war is going to be very costly and is unattractive. The German state also is a convenient ideological enemy to rally against ideologically. Political and military cooperation is a possibility though.
- Japan wages no war with the USA and instead focuses on subduing China.
- France is a German satellite (if a war happened) or still a close British ally (if no war happened).
- Roosevelt isn't going to pursue a third term and the USA saw very little involvment in any military conflicts. (hypothetical Germany vs France/Britain war)
-Britain isn't bankrupt because if a war happened, it was ended in 1940.
Britain is wary of German influence and is building up its military capabilities in a sustainable way.