Soviet Union without WW2

[Anchises]

How would the Soviet Union develop politicially and militarily, if no WW2 happens?

The (geo-)political situation:

- Central Europe is ruled by a heavily armed militarist German state. This could be a military dictatorship that resulted from a Reichswehr coup. A Nazi state where Hitler died after Fall Gelb or Rot and Göring made peace.

A war is going to be very costly and is unattractive. The German state also is a convenient ideological enemy to rally against ideologically. Political and military cooperation is a possibility though.

- Japan wages no war with the USA and instead focuses on subduing China.

- France is a German satellite (if a war happened) or still a close British ally (if no war happened).

- Roosevelt isn't going to pursue a third term and the USA saw very little involvment in any military conflicts. (hypothetical Germany vs France/Britain war)

-Britain isn't bankrupt because if a war happened, it was ended in 1940.

Britain is wary of German influence and is building up its military capabilities in a sustainable way.

 

[GI Jim]

Without the war to create the hero worship of Stalin, I could see some sort of NKVD coup by the mid 1940s. Although economically more powerful due to the lack of war devastation, the USSR remains diplomatically isolated having no satellite states in Eastern Europe.

Perhaps the Soviet focus moves to Asia? I don't know though. A Soviet Union left to its own devices would by 1943/44 have the worlds most impressive military and could quite easily choose to invade Germany. Theres even significant evidence that Stalin was going to attack Germany in the fall of 1941 or early 1942 (See Icebreaker Viktor Suvorov).

 

[starman]

Without the war to create the hero worship of Stalin, I could see some sort of NKVD coup by the mid 1940s. Although economically more powerful due to the lack of war devastation, the USSR remains diplomatically isolated having no satellite states in Eastern Europe.

I don't think it would be so isolated if Britain and the US saw it as a potential ally against the reich, in the event of a new war.

Perhaps the Soviet focus moves to Asia? I don't know though. A Soviet Union left to its own devices would by 1943/44 have the worlds most impressive military and could quite easily choose to invade Germany. Theres even significant evidence that Stalin was going to attack Germany in the fall of 1941 or early 1942 (See Icebreaker Viktor Suvorov).

The Soviets didn't appear eager for war. If they planned to attack, why didn't they do it in May-June 1940, when the vast bulk of the nazi war machine was engaged in the west?

 

[altamiro]

The Soviets didn't appear eager for war. If they planned to attack, why didn't they do it in May-June 1940, when the vast bulk of the nazi war machine was engaged in the west?

Because the Icebreaker is a bit of revenge porn rather than any sort of sound analysis. Most of the things Suvorov refers to existed as prototypes or suggestions rather than as a part of doctrine. It may well be that Stalin expected to fight a war in Western Europe at some unspecified future point in time; however this wasn't 1941 and most likely not 1942. Even the Soviet army required quite a significant time from a first prototype to mass deployment including training and doctrine development for the use of all this stuff.

Most likely is IMO that Stalin was preparing to pounce once Nazi Germany either was massively losing against the Western Allies (the same number USSR did on Poland 1939) or once the Nazi government collapsed (which, without an ongoing war, would be only a matter of time - the Germans knew it, the Soviets knew it and everyone else who could be bothered with basic economic data knew it too). Stalin's foreign policy was basically that of a hyena: grab a prey that is already dead or dying, then snarl at anyone else to protect what is now yours. And as with hyenas, it is a very safe and beneficial strategy.

Edit: I hope hyenas don't take offense for being compared with Josef Stalin.

 

[Clandango]

Spanish Civil War still happened? One of those much misunderstood (well not by this board) Wars, in that the Soviets where not really supporting the Republicans. They simply gave some weapons to their own chosen men, who then used them to usurp the power of democrats, and then shipped their entire gold supply to Moscow where it was miscounted as well as used to pay for all the 'gifts'. More importantly though, Stalin was said by some to have not actually been wanting try Republicans to win. Or at least not to put too much effort on his own part into it. Didn't want to scare other countries. And I think that withtou a war there would still be purges and such. I believe about a dozen happened up to WWII, if you could count them as having ever stopped, and the Communist Party supported them greatly, sometimes even after the people themselves were sent to camps. Denial kept them going where all else failed. Fun fact though. The Soviets basically ethnically cleansed their country of Finns and the natives of Ingrid. This included Finnish-Americans and Finnish-Canadians. Yes, no group that emigrated to the USSR (or sometimes went there on a building contract or as embassy staff) had a great time. We need to consider the whole picture. I believe Strange Maps had a map titled under Yesterday is a Foreign Country, though I don't know if it is still around or if it was one of the older ones that vanished. So many wars and coups everywhere. At what point will we say WWII begins? In retrospect I should have read the first post more thoroughly, but the point still stands. Seems that Germany would have a better chance at having the Baltic and Southeast Europe under their sway, though if they didnthe split with the Soviets them the Baltic States are gone. A shame for German nationalists and industrialists, as there was a lot of profit to be made. Hypothetically, of course. Too many details to go over.

 

[Anchises]

As a quick clarification: SCW still happened and Stalin acted like OTL.

Very interesting to see the different viewpoints.

 

[Inter2010]

How exactly is WW2 avoided? I think we would have a whole series of regional conflicts that would grow into a general European war.

Hungary vs Romania
Italy vs. Yugoslavia
Italy vs Greece
Soviet Union vs Baltic States, Finland and Poland

What about Gdansk, Austria, Sudeten?
Bulgaria would also look at the opportunity to grab Macedonia ...

The status of Ireland has not yet been resolved.

A lot of unresolved things.

 

[Anchises]

How exactly is WW2 avoided? I think we would have a whole series of regional conflicts that would grow into a general European war.

Hungary vs Romania
Italy vs. Yugoslavia
Italy vs Greece
Soviet Union vs Baltic States, Finland and Poland

What about Gdansk, Austria, Sudeten?
Bulgaria would also look at the opportunity to grab Macedonia ...

The status of Ireland has not yet been resolved.

A lot of unresolved things.

Regional wars are entirely possible and likely. The situation simply never escalates to a World War.

 

[BeardedHoplite]

any. Theres even significant evidence that Stalin was going to attack Germany in the fall of 1941 or early 1942 (See Icebreaker Viktor Suvorov).

That theory simply isn't true. Suvorov is a crackpot that was latched onto to make the USSR look worse during the cold war and by sketchy German revisionists to show that Stalin was the aggressor all along. The RKKA was in no shape to do any sort of offensives until at last 1943 or 44, perhaps even later if the rumours of another purge being planned were true.

Now I don't doubt Stalin would have pounced if he saw a chance (a la Poland) but the idea they were preparting a landgrab of Europe is false.

 

[von Adler]

I don't think it would be so isolated if Britain and the US saw it as a potential ally against the reich, in the event of a new war.



The Soviets didn't appear eager for war. If they planned to attack, why didn't they do it in May-June 1940, when the vast bulk of the nazi war machine was engaged in the west?

Stalin might have entertained the notion of stabbing the Germans in the back when the RKKA was ready - 1943 or so. The RKKA was in the midst of re-organising and re-equipping, phasing out a lot of ww1 vintage arms (primarily artillery) and early 30s planes and tanks.

Stalin expected the German campaign in France to develop into a bloody stalemate like in 1914-1918 and thought the facist and capitalist/imperialist nations would exhaust each other, opening for the RKKA to export socialism in one nation. The quick German victory suprised him (and most of the world, including the Germans themselves).

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

Perhaps the Soviet focus moves to Asia?

That would certainly be interesting. As pointed out above, without the War then the USSR is diplomatically pretty isolated. Moving more decisively in Asia to support China and various communist movements could certainly win them some allies there.

 

[starman]

Stalin might have entertained the notion of stabbing the Germans in the back when the RKKA was ready - 1943 or so. The RKKA was in the midst of re-organising and re-equipping, phasing out a lot of ww1 vintage arms (primarily artillery) and early 30s planes and tanks.

But surely even then he wouldn't have done it without an allied presence in western Europe i.e. successful invasion, or at least a major diversion of German forces away from central/eastern Europe.

The quick German victory suprised him....

Khruschev recalls Stalin cursing the governments of Britain and France. "Couldn't they put up any fight at all."

 

[Deleted member 94680]

If Stalin is in power I doubt the RKKA would be ready to initiate offensive action at any point.

Troops trained sufficiently? Purge
Complaining troops aren’t trained sufficiently? Purge
Supporting political machinations? Purge
Not supporting political machinations enough? Purge

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Likely Stalin lives considerably longer and engages in a lot more purges to maintain his power as his leadership proves to be more destructive than constructive. His industrialization plans weren't living up to demands and at some point the low hanging fruit of industrialization will be over and then it might well stagnate due to Stalin's policies. He could well stunt his nation quite badly before any sort of coup removes him...if they are able to at all. Without an imminent foreign threat Stalin is going to have to keep dissatisfaction in check by brutality.

 

[Anchises]

If Stalin is in power I doubt the RKKA would be ready to initiate offensive action at any point.

Troops trained sufficiently? Purge
Complaining troops aren’t trained sufficiently? Purge
Supporting political machinations? Purge
Not supporting political machinations enough? Purge

Likely Stalin lives considerably longer and engages in a lot more purges to maintain his power as his leadership proves to be more destructive than constructive. His industrialization plans weren't living up to demands and at some point the low hanging fruit of industrialization will be over and then it might well stagnate due to Stalin's policies. He could well stunt his nation quite badly before any sort of coup removes him...if they are able to at all. Without an imminent foreign threat Stalin is going to have to keep dissatisfaction in check by brutality.

IOTL the Nazi invasion vindicated the insane military-industrial complex. The argument that NATO inevitably was going to invade, certainly had a lot of appeal for a society so deeply traumatized by the Nazis.

Without the experience of OTL, I have severe doubts that the massive military can be sustained as long as IOTL.

If Stalin keeps arming the Soviet Union, at some point a natural high point is going to be reached. What comes after that?

Either the inevitably rot and decline from military overspending sets in, or the military is used to reap the benefits of a strong military.

Isn't the Stalinist approach basically the same what the Nazis did economically? Just in a more extreme and totalitarian way? "World Revolution or Bust" instead of "Lebensraum or Bust"?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Isn't the Stalinist approach basically the same what the Nazis did economically? Just in a more extreme and totalitarian way? "World Revolution or Bust" instead of "Lebensraum or Bust"?

Stalin advocated for 'socialism in one country' not 'permanent revolution'; that was one of the major ideological fights between Stalin and Trotsky.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism_in_One_Country

 

[Anchises]

Stalin advocated for 'socialism in one country' not 'permanent revolution'; that was one of the major ideological fights between Stalin and Trotsky.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism_in_One_Country

World Revolution might have been the wrong term (Stalin certainly was still interested in instigating Revolutions elswhere, he was just more cautious than Trotsky would have been)

What I meant: What would Stalin (or after his death the Politbureau) have done once the SU reaches peak military strength and no one attacks them?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

World Revolution might have been the wrong term.

What I meant: What would Stalin (or after his death the Politbureau) have done once the SU reaches peak military strength and no one attacks them?

Stay armed to the teeth to ward off invasion. I mean what did the USSR do in the 1980s? Besides what really is 'peak military strength'? The bigger question is what is the population going to do after multiple purges and a lack of improving average living standard?

 

[James Ricker]

Stalin continues with the Purge cycle.
Purge, rinse, repeat.

 

[Anchises]

Stay armed to the teeth to ward off invasion. I mean what did the USSR do in the 1980s? Besides what really is 'peak military strength'? The bigger question is what is the population going to do after multiple purges and a lack of improving average living standard?

Peak military strength: The point where even doctored statistics can't conceal the fact that the military stopped growing. Everyone from the pool of potential workers /soldiers is either serving in the armed forces or working in essential industries.

Eternal vigilance is hard to justify, if the outside world is basically ignoring you.

The population is the interesting question indeed, even a "strong" dictator (Stalin) or his successors would need to prove that being "armed to the teeth" makes sense.