Soviet Union without the South Caucasus?

Hashasheen

Banned
As seen above, I'm attempting a Strangerverse Caliphate-wank, and an Inclusion of control of the south Caucasus is involved, but I'm not sure about the butterflies.
 
OTL the South Caucasus fell like dominoes -- first Azerbaijan, then Armenia eight months later, then Georgia four months after that.

And there was a strong element of opportunism. The Soviets had only modest forces in theater; they were able to move aggressively because there was a complete power vacuum in the region, with all other major powers being either distracted or uninterested, and the three new Caucasus states being too weak to offer serious resistance.

The key here is Azerbaijan. Once it fell, it was easy to pick off Armenia, which in turn left Georgia surrounded on three sides. Keep Azerbaijan independent, on the other hand, and the Soviets will find it much harder to capture the other two -- they'd only be able to attack Georgia along the narrow coastal plain, and they wouldn't be able to reach Armenia at all.

The problem is, Azerbaijan was also an irresistible target -- weak, internally divided, and sitting on what would become the USSR's largest oilfields. During WWII the Baku fields were producing well over half of the Soviet Union's crude. So, there was a very strong strategic imperative to take them out.

Ergo, in order to keep the Soviets out of Azerbaijan, you need to either

1) neutralize the oil fields somehow (handwave them away, or delay their development by a couple of generations); or

2) make the short-lived Republic of Azerbaijan much stronger somehow; or

3) place it under the protection of a power that the USSR can't or isn't willing to confront.

Good luck!

cheers,


Doug M.
 

Hashasheen

Banned
OTL the South Caucasus fell like dominoes -- first Azerbaijan, then Armenia eight months later, then Georgia four months after that.

And there was a strong element of opportunism. The Soviets had only modest forces in theater; they were able to move aggressively because there was a complete power vacuum in the region, with all other major powers being either distracted or uninterested, and the three new Caucasus states being too weak to offer serious resistance.

The key here is Azerbaijan. Once it fell, it was easy to pick off Armenia, which in turn left Georgia surrounded on three sides. Keep Azerbaijan independent, on the other hand, and the Soviets will find it much harder to capture the other two -- they'd only be able to attack Georgia along the narrow coastal plain, and they wouldn't be able to reach Armenia at all.

The problem is, Azerbaijan was also an irresistible target -- weak, internally divided, and sitting on what would become the USSR's largest oilfields. During WWII the Baku fields were producing well over half of the Soviet Union's crude. So, there was a very strong strategic imperative to take them out.

Ergo, in order to keep the Soviets out of Azerbaijan, you need to either

3) place it under the protection of a power that the USSR can't or isn't willing to confront.

Good luck!

cheers,


Doug M.
So No south Caucasus means weaker 5 year plans and a less mobile and slower war industry against the Nazis?
 
So No south Caucasus means weaker 5 year plans and a less mobile and slower war industry against the Nazis?

I think losing ~60% of its oil would have a noticeable effect, yes.

To some extent the USSR could compensate with increased investment in other fields. But not, I think, nearly enough to make up.

Note that the Soviets put a lot of effort into developing Baku, including construction of some serious pipelines. That's because the Baku fields, though not very conveniently located WRT the USSR's population centers and industry, were just that good.

Losing Transcaucasia also costs the USSR about 10 million people (out of an OTL 1941 population of ~196 million), some coal, heavy metals, lots of timber, a modest amount of industry, most of their wine and all of their decent brandy and cognac.


Doug M.
 
most of their wine and all of their decent brandy and cognac.
Heck with the Oil, Important things first.
The key here is Azerbaijan. Once it fell, it was easy to pick off Armenia,
?Isn't Azerbaijan Muslim? The only possible power to protect Azerbaijan is Turkey

And if You are fooling around with the Caliphate, Them you are fooling with the Ottoman's in WW1. And there were Turkish plans for the Caucasus and the trans Caspian.
 

Hashasheen

Banned
And if You are fooling around with the Caliphate, Them you are fooling with the Ottoman's in WW1. And there were Turkish plans for the Caucasus and the trans Caspian.
No, No, No, the Ottomans are getting whats coming to them in my TL.:D
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
You need weaker Bolsheviks and more recognition from the West for the states of Caucasus. You need the south Caucasian nations to somehow not fight eachother like crazy dogs and also to avoid a Turkish- Armenian war. I must say this sounds like asb.
 

Hashasheen

Banned
You need weaker Bolsheviks and more recognition from the West for the states of Caucasus. You need the south Caucasian nations to somehow not fight eachother like crazy dogs and also to avoid a Turkish- Armenian war. I must say this sounds like asb.
It is a TL to be done in the ASB forum, but one has to stick to what makes sense. Go and read Big Tex's Ameriwank, and you'll see how the new AH meme is like.
 
Christian states of Southern Caucasus had a choice between Bolsheviks and Turks (talking about a rock and hard place) and, as unpleasant as Bolsheviks had been, Turkish alternative had been seen as suicidal. Bagramyan (who went on to become Marshal of Soviet Union) started his military career in Armenian army and participated in anti-government revolt days before Red invasion. Traditional Soviet historiography described that revolt as "communist uprising", but contemporary publications see it as bit of blackmailing to persuade Dashnak regime to accept Bolshevik rule, as opposed to Turkish conquest (Dashnaks could hope to repel half-assed invasion by "Army of Islam", but not determined attack by nationalist Turkish troops). And Azerbaijan... Well, once British gave up on occupation of Baku, it had been doomed. Azeri themselves had as much hope to beat Commies back as Canute to stop the tide (even if we ignore the fact that Baku was as Azeri as New York is Lenni Lenape town), and plenty of locals sympathised with Red rule.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Hmm, who is close, Iran?

I'm guessing Pahlavi wasn't consolidated enough yet, and it had its own troubles in Gilan to worry about.
 

The Sandman

Banned
What if the US decided to be more realistic about the RCW, and more coldly pragmatic, and devoted its support to keeping the Caucasus (and maybe the Ukraine) independent from the Soviets? Would that be enough to keep the Red Army from overrunning Azerbaijan? Especially if the US can get the other interventionist types to go along with them (except for Japan of course)?
 
Lawrence of Transcaucasia?

Perhaps, involving the British substantially in the region during World War I would lead to some figurre, a "Lawrence" if you will, advocating for their cause in London and getting a British protectorate set up.
 
sl

The British decide that instead of partitioning the Turkish Empire than can still keep it in place more or less intact and now that Russia has gone Bolshevik even expand it towards the Caucasus region. So the Caucasus will be part of the Turkish Empire the same way that Egypt was.
 
Perhaps, involving the British substantially in the region during World War I would lead to some figurre, a "Lawrence" if you will, advocating for their cause in London and getting a British protectorate set up.

Well you've got the Dunsterforce, but the post-war relief in Britain led to its anti-Russian mission being curtailed

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The British decide that instead of partitioning the Turkish Empire than can still keep it in place more or less intact and now that Russia has gone Bolshevik even expand it towards the Caucasus region. So the Caucasus will be part of the Turkish Empire the same way that Egypt was.
Yes, Armenians and Georgians would be real happy to be a part of Turkish Empire :) OTL would be seen as happy ending by poor souls who would be living ITTL.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
It's not just avoiding Soviet or Turkish invasion, you must also somehow get the Georgians, Armenians and Azeris to not fight eachother, and that is as hard as keeping the Russians and Turks out.
 
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