Soviet Union neutral and no aggression 39-40

WI Stalin had not invaded Western Poland, the Baltic States and Finland early in WW2.

I assume that Finland does NOT ally with Hitler, I think that this helps Leningrad,

I do not know how much difference it makes to Barborossa overall.

Obvously Poland still falls to Hitler, I think it is possible that the Nazi war machine will be more damaged by this victory.

I do not know if that delays events in 1940
 
You mean Eastern Poland, but that's OK.

However, you should detail how that comes about; if Germany conquers all of Poland then? That would cost them a little, though I doubt that it burdens the German war machine in a significant way.
After all, Stalin waited for his attack on Poland until it seemed quite safe to go in.
Being in Eastern Poland gives the Wehrmacht 150-200 additional km in 1941, though! Same goes for their Romanian allys (if Romania isn't neutral without Stalin's agression).
That could make it very interesting if they start Barbarossa on schedule. What would the Baltic States do? Become German satellites after the fall of Poland (Lithuania would be almost as encircled as the Czechs after Slovakia split off)? Try to remain neutral and be swallowed by Hitler? Both would give the Germans additional "free" gains!

Also, lacking the Winter War might lead to negative effects on the Red Army, which would delay its learning curve.
Then, again, the Winter War quite distracted WAllies for the time being. No Winter War and no speculation on help for Finland might lead to butterflies concerning the fight for Norway and then in the Western campaign.
 
Bizarelly, something I was thinking about only the other day. So you are proposing no M-R pact, but likewise no Anglo-Soviet alliance either. Interesting. Hitler's going to war anyway. He ain't going to mess around and is simply going to attack Poland. I am not sure what Stalin would want to do in this situation. On the one hand, he really won't want Hitler and Germany all the way to his western border. But on the other, without an agreement, if he invades Poland off his own bat, there is the chance of a general shooting war breaking out between the Soviet Union and Germany anyway. Possibly he just sits tight and waits and sees. Don't know if this will help when Barbarossa comes however.
 
Interestingly enough it might actually help the Soviets when the Germans attack in '41. One of the Soviet problems at the start of the attack was that all of their fixed defenses were in the process of being dismantled and moved from their original locations inside the Soviet Union to their new locations in Poland. So rather than the Germans hitting basically no fixed defenses at all the Soviets actually have their planned and reasonably complete fixed defenses. Which bleeds the German assault quite a bit, plus the Soviet air-force is in its prewar airfields which have actual revetments and reinforced fuel storage so they don't lose quite so many aircraft to the first air attacks. In addition they have all of the troops they lost in Finland...all in all this might very well be a plus for the Soviets.
 
Bizarelly, something I was thinking about only the other day. So you are proposing no M-R pact, but likewise no Anglo-Soviet alliance either. Interesting. Hitler's going to war anyway. He ain't going to mess around and is simply going to attack Poland. I am not sure what Stalin would want to do in this situation. On the one hand, he really won't want Hitler and Germany all the way to his western border. But on the other, without an agreement, if he invades Poland off his own bat, there is the chance of a general shooting war breaking out between the Soviet Union and Germany anyway. Possibly he just sits tight and waits and sees. Don't know if this will help when Barbarossa comes however.

The thing is Germany wasn't ready to take on the Soviets in '39 and both Hitler and the German Generals knew it. They were basically propositioning for their eventual war with the Soviets. I don't see the Germans pushing things even without the M-R pact.
 

nbcman

Donor
If there is no M-R pact, does this mean that there are no trade agreements in August 39 and February 40? If there isn't the extensive trade between the Nazis and the Soviets, the German economy will be hurting due to the loss of millions of tons of cereals and other as well as the loss of over a million tons of oil products. The loss of trade especially in oil and rubber products may well have prevented the early success of Barbarossa but it would not have stopped Hitler from attacking.
 
If there is no M-R pact, does this mean that there are no trade agreements in August 39 and February 40? If there isn't the extensive trade between the Nazis and the Soviets, the German economy will be hurting due to the loss of millions of tons of cereals and other as well as the loss of over a million tons of oil products. The loss of trade especially in oil and rubber products may well have prevented the early success of Barbarossa but it would not have stopped Hitler from attacking.

I suspect the trade would have gone on, both sides needed it and neutral or not the Soviets didn't have a whole lot of trading partners. This would be another reason for the Germans not to attack the Soviets quite yet...
 
Originally posted by tchizek
I suspect the trade would have gone on, both sides needed it and neutral or not the Soviets didn't have a whole lot of trading partners. This would be another reason for the Germans not to attack the Soviets quite yet...

Problem is Germany always delayed delivering their part of the deal to the Soviets, especially technology. I'm not sure if neutral USSR would have tolerated such a situation - they deliver the goods and they are not getting paid for that. Of course there is a difference between being really neutral and officially neutral - Stalin might support Hitler even without official treaty. So how is it - does Stalin really decide to let the capitalists kill each other without supporting any side or is he in fact really helping Hitler?
 
Taking Poland completely will cost Nazi Germany several weeks to a month, along with more replacement parts and men. Several hundred thousand more Polish soldiers will escape into Romania and the USSR.

Stalin will be much more wary of Nazi Germany, and war preparations will commence immediately in 1939.
 
Stalin will be much more wary of Nazi Germany, and war preparations will commence immediately in 1939.

While this certainly will be true, those war preparations could still end up being wastefully applied and poorly planned. Without the example of the Winter War, no one, including Stalin, would be aware of the poor quality of the Soviet military.

Given the terrible state of Soviet military leadership at the time, making substantial investments through that same apparatus is very far from an assurance of effectiveness.
 
I had a look at the map again. German position on Poland's Eastern border saves them approximately a third of the way towards Moscow, Leningrad and Kiev as well. That is a factor...
 
While this certainly will be true, those war preparations could still end up being wastefully applied and poorly planned. Without the example of the Winter War, no one, including Stalin, would be aware of the poor quality of the Soviet military.

Given the terrible state of Soviet military leadership at the time, making substantial investments through that same apparatus is very far from an assurance of effectiveness.

Actually the poor state of the military was fairly clear even in 1939, and some reform efforts were in fact under way. Though you're right that the Winter War provided a greater impetus to reform by highlighting the Red Army's many deficits to the world.

I had a look at the map again. German position on Poland's Eastern border saves them approximately a third of the way towards Moscow, Leningrad and Kiev as well. That is a factor...

Not really, since they don't have the Baltic States (Which limits their strategic possibilities), will be attacking directly against the Stalin Line without the benefit of surprise, etc. Soviet war planning since the 1920s assumed that an invasion from the West would be conducted along the pre-1939 border. The Soviet's acquisitions in Poland and the Baltics completely threw off defensive planning.
 
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