Soviet Union falls into civil war

What kind of civil war? Communist hard-liners vs. Democrats vs. Nationalists? every republic against each other? A bunch of generals (practically warlords) against each other?
In most of the scenarios it means a catastrophy. Sooner or later tactical nukes are starting to fly (if only tactical); milions of refugees storming west; export of gas and oil seriously reduced or completely stopped; loose warlords offer at least tactical nukes to anyone willing to buy (Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Myanmar) for cash or/and weapons; millions die when nations of the former USSR fight each other; possible religious wars in Muslim republics; possible western intervention in some western and Far East regions, but nobody has enough power to enforce peace in the USSR; USA offers refuge to anyone who will bring nuclear weapons - dozen of Red Octobers defects or try to defect, hundreds of bombers etc.; NATO sets a perimeter to keep refugees, warlords etc. away from the west and makes some deals with some Caucasus republics in exchange for oil; in short: we are in BIG trouble.
 
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