Soviet Union EXPANDS in 1990s?

Incognito

Banned
I was reading a story the other day where the author apparently had Gorbachov’s New Union Treaty succeed, resulting in U.S.S.R. becoming looser and allowing more autonomy for its member republics (as the author put it, the republics could have any system of internal government they want). The author had – get this – Mozambique and Ethiopia join the U.S.S.R.!

Now, the story is a sci-fi story and the events I describe serve as only background for the setting, not the main focus of the plot. I doubt the author put a lot of thought into this particular point and was mainly interested in creating a Space-Filling Empire.

But this made me think: if U.S.S.R. was to become less centralized, would other nations want to join it for economic reasons? If so, which nations and would Moscow accept them? What are the chances that U.S.S.R. could become something like a more centralized European Union – a union of nations with their own internal politics and policies but common currency, defense and foreign policy. And finally, is there any chance, however small, of African nations joining U.S.S.R.?
 
But this made me think: if U.S.S.R. was to become less centralized, would other nations want to join it for economic reasons?

Where's the beef?
Ethiopia was already receiving aid from the USSR. They might consider joining a Confederation of Independent States if that meant more aid. Can the new CIS afford to provide more, lavish aid to the chronically famined Ethiopia? I doubt it. So why should they join? Note anyway that by 1991, Ethiopia is a shambles and it's unlikely to remain an active member of an alternate CIS.
 
Well, have to avoid the coup attempt by the hardliners, not sure how that'd go...
I'd imagine things remain frostier between Moscow - Beijing...
 
On another thread

about the USSR surviving, it was mentioned that West Germany would have paid 100 billion marks to the USSR in order to reunify. I can't find the 1989/1990 exchange rate, but 1995 appears to be 3.22 rubles to a mark. So if the USSR avoids the coup attempt (as others noted), demobilizes a lot (to cut spending), avoids "shock" capitalism, and doesn't blow the money on stupid projects, but the early 1990's the USSR might look kinda nice.... IF as the OP states, looser confederation/dual state and federal government. Poland won't join, but maybe others might (Romania, Bulgaria? I don't know this side of the world too well). Ukraine cutting off access is awkward, but probably unavoidable.
 
about the USSR surviving, it was mentioned that West Germany would have paid 100 billion marks to the USSR in order to reunify. I can't find the 1989/1990 exchange rate, but 1995 appears to be 3.22 rubles to a mark. So if the USSR avoids the coup attempt (as others noted), demobilizes a lot (to cut spending), avoids "shock" capitalism, and doesn't blow the money on stupid projects, but the early 1990's the USSR might look kinda nice.... IF as the OP states, looser confederation/dual state and federal government. Poland won't join, but maybe others might (Romania, Bulgaria? I don't know this side of the world too well). Ukraine cutting off access is awkward, but probably unavoidable.

If the U.S.S. idea goes well and avoids what happened to CIS, I can see Ukraine wanting back in as they begin to go into economic free-fall, especailly when surrounded by it. Georgia will probably never want to take part and would be awkwardly stuck there...

The question of expansion beyond the original USSR and maybe some Warsaw Pact states is dubious though, mainly geographic problems.

Most are unlikely but possibly states from a feasibility angle -

- Various balkan state options in the fallout of Yugoslavia
- Albania
- N. Korea?
- Cuba?

Poorly developed and distant African states are on the lower side of possible, IMHO.
 

frlmerrin

Banned
In any time-line where WWII is on a par with the one in OTL the Soviet Uniom, like the British Empire is dead. It did well to last as long as it did in the face of unrelenting post-war American enmity. If you want it to expand the Soviet Union WWII has to have substantially different outcomes or not happen at all.
 
As far as the Mongolians are concerned- true. They would rather like some money from Moscow.
The Chinese though....

How much would the Chinese really interfere though? Mongolia had long since been designated as being in the Soviet sphere of influence.

Plus, China had it's own problems at the time
 
There would be a number of interesting issues.
  • Would the Muslim republics remain or would they want independence? If the looser confederation got off and running I could see a confederation forming around Kazakhstan.
  • Ultimately I think any African affiliate, or for that matter Cuba, would feel too much like a colony and not remain in the union.
  • The central European states, having just got rid of the Red Army, would be loath to join up. It would, however, give them leverage they did not have when they jointed the European Union. The traditional EU, read France and Germany, would not want these states joining the Russian group so I would see much more favorable accession terms for Poland etc.
  • There is no way China would join anything that even hinted of impinging on its sovereign rights.
 
There would be a number of interesting issues.
  • Would the Muslim republics remain or would they want independence? If the looser confederation got off and running I could see a confederation forming around Kazakhstan.

They didn't want out all that much OTL, and Kazakhstan, while the best of the bunch, cannot sustain them. They'll definitely stay in. Armenia will leave, Ukraine might, but both will want back in shortly.

Georgia might stay out but that's a bad place to be. The Baltics may be messy.

Serbia might join in once Yugoslavia goes to the dogs.

This is of course envisioning a best-outcome scenario without any unforeseen ethnic wars or further economic shocks.
 
Georgia might stay out but that's a bad place to be. The Baltics may be messy.

This is of course envisioning a best-outcome scenario without any unforeseen ethnic wars or further economic shocks.

Something i can see going wrong is South Ossetia and/or Abkhazia wanting in but Georgia wanting out. Queue war.
 
Something i can see going wrong is South Ossetia and/or Abkhazia wanting in but Georgia wanting out. Queue war.

OTL, in a way. Gamskhurdia's government fought three separatist wars and de-facto lost all three.

Unless you mean the legal status of the separatist states, in which case there may be a long period of limbo for them.
 
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