Soviet survival plausibility check

Ok. I know there are a million and a half "WI the Soviet Union was still around today?" threads (say the quotes with as sarcastic a Lisa Simpson voice as you can. 'Tis great. :D). But I'm working with a friend of mine on a steampunk timeline and Gorbachev's New Union Treaty entered the conversation and I figured I would ask the AH community their opinions. (Our steampunk POD butterflies away everything after WWI, so this really has no bearing on it. Just for my own curiosity.)

Basically, WI Yeltsin is less of a douchebag and the August 1991 coup never happens, and Gorbachev's New Union Treaty that would recreate the USSR into the USSR (this time the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics! How clever!) minus the Baltic Republics goes into effect, with full implementation by 92-93. How would this effect NATO and EU expansion eastward? How long until the Soviet Union collapses anyway? Without the collapse of the Soviet Union, does Yugoslavia still implode like a crackbaby full of crack (by which I mean delicious candy!) or is it a more peaceful breakup or negotiated reform similar to the Soviet reforms? How long until Putin is elected President of the USSR?

These are all questions I am concerned about, especially because I accidentally envisioned a post-Communist, quasi EU arrangement in Eastern Europe growing out of this and didn't want to have that particular wet dream unless it was at least semi-plausible.
 
I had a thread about this once: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=135538

In all likelyhood, the expansion of the EU and NATO eastward is slowed down as we would see a USSR that is economically and militarily stronger and will still see Eastern Europe as its backyard and block any Western encroachments there. Heck, even today Russia considers all the former SSRs to be in its sphere of influence, almost two decades after the USSR's collapse.

Russia might be slightly less rich from oil and gas than it is now as has to share the riches with the remaining republics, leading to higher standards of living there and also quicker economic recovery overall. Also, without Yeltsin's oligarchy and his bad economic policy, we'd see a better, but gradual, economic recovery with key industries like petrol, gas, arms industry, heavy industry, petrochemicals and aeronautics remaining in state hands and the rest getting liberalized in a period of a few years. IMHO this beats Yeltsin's 'shocktherapy' to 'kickstart' the economy.

With Ukraine still in the USSR, we'd see more T-84's in the Russian Army (although I'm not sure how much of an improvement this is over the T-90) and a stronger and bigger military overall although smaller than during the Cold War and no match for NATO's might. I imagine, however, that the new USSR will settle for Great Power or regional power for the first few years considering it is in the shift between a command economy and a market economy. One positive effect perhaps is a weaker Taliban and Al Qaeda since the Russian Air Force can still bomb the crap out of them from bases in Central Asia.

As for Yugoslavia, I could see attempts to reforms if Gorbachev pulls this New Union Treaty off. After all, it has proven to work ITTL.

As for Putin. He might well be butterflied away.

I hope these ramblings helped.
 
They do. Thanks. :)

One of the developments I mentally envisioned was that the USSR, seeing the drastic rise of instability in the post-1989 Balkans, would seek out diplomatic and political establishments to try and reign in some of the excesses (namely in Poland, Romania, and Yugoslavia). So...

Yugoslavia attempts reform in 1992/93, creating a more federalized structure, etc. etc. placating the Croatians (LE GASP! Kosovar independence is essentially butterflied! ^.^ Yay!) etc. etc. Seeing the success of diplomatic restructuring, Gorbachev does what Yeltsin did IOTL essentially in pulling talent from the KGB--here is where Putin becomes one of Gorbachev's buddies instead of Yeltsin's.

As sort of a means of maintaining stability in Eastern Europe, Moscow and Berlin orchestrate what I called the Eastern European Security Council (EESC) to help prevent any possible flair ups. Croatia declares independence because, let's face it, they're Croatian (and dem Serbs are mean sons of beeches!). Yugoslavia has a little war from about 94-96 and Putin distinguishes himself by negotiating a German exit from political involvement in Yugoslavia in exchange for helping prevent Nato expansion eastward.

A sort of proto-Eastern European EU arrangement is born with German observation, but still largely Soviet dominated. Nations like Poland and Romania resist, but find few friends outside of Eastern Europe and Putin flexes his diplomatic skills again in placating these countries. Eventually Yugoslavia is forced to fracture in order to stay together, granting Croatia an independent delegation to this Eastern EU, but still remaining de jure a constituent polity of Yugoslavia.

A couple years down the line, Gorbachev gets old and poses for a Louis Vuitton ad and Putin is elected next President of the USSR against rival Alexander Lukashenko (why doesn't he pop up more often? He's crazy!).

Now, given my own little made-up Alt TL, we speed up to 2009, and let's hear what Glenn Beck has to say about Russia "seeking" to dominate Eastern Europe. XD
 
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