Hmm. How exactly can the Soviets force the Poles to accept their aid?
If it's possible, that would be great. But I struggle to see how...
Orderly retreats are one of the hardest military maneuvers to pull off. The Soviets weren't able to even able to plan competent counter attacks in this period.
I agree about the MR pact.
The Soviets kinda did assume that Hitler would be trying to fulfill his plans though. The problem was, they were so thoroughly disillusioned by their earlier attempts to get Britain and France to form a common front that the slim chance that they could change Hitler's mind or at least delay him long enough to fight Germany one-on-one seemed to be the only chance.
Keep in mind that for most of the 30s the British appeared to be actively assisting the Germans (though the British for most of that thought they were helping a reasonable German leadership recover from the temporary loss of status after WW1). After Munich the idea that the British were serious in their guarantee of Poland - a country that was pretty poorly thought of by the mandarins in the foreign office - was not the most obvious thing in the world. And since France needed Britain's help to stand a chance against Germany, where Britain went, France had to follow. (Though add to this the deep ideological divides in France which the Soviets had some part in exacerbating, which made it rather politically difficult for French governments on either end of the political spectrum to cooperate with the Soviets.)
It would be interesting to see what would have happened if Stalin had decided to keep trying things Litvinov's way. It is possible that had the Soviets continued trying to build international coalitions, some progress would be made. That would require a PoD in 1938 though.
So the Soviets should have gone to full war footing at every false alarm they got during the German build-up? Everyone from the top generals down to the lowest private would be driven to exhaustion like that!
The German preparations to invade weren't exactly a secret. It was a huge international effort right on the Soviet border and they were getting floods of information from their own people and from the British. The problem is, the Soviets didn't know for sure which information was more correct, and the Germans had rattled sabers on the border before as a way to pressure the Soviets when the two powers were embroiled in one of their frequent arguments. So there was a sliver of a chance the massive build-up was to extort more resources from the Soviets in order for the Germans to defeat the British.
It's hard to think of ways that would result in the Soviets taking Sorge's warning more seriously in the context. Especially given how lacking in details it was.
Hmm. An invasion of Romania immediately after France fell might be interesting. Potentially it could completely paralyze the Germans, since without Romanian oil they'd have a hard time building up the supplies they need for Barbarossa. Runs the risk of provoking a war with the British though.
Don't invade Finland. Don't try to annex the Baltic states, just stick with the military bases the Soviets arm-twisted those states into giving them in OTL.
Don't invade Poland. Let the Germans pay for every in of Poland with their own blood. This one has huge impacts and not only really pisses the Germans off, it also puts France in a much better situation. Could have downsides for the Soviets, but even if the Germans tried to invade the USSR after conquering all of Poland, it is probably better than OTL by some way.
If taking Poland and the Baltic states, keep the Stalin Line as the main defensive line in the Soviet Union. If possible, tear up all the rail lines between the Stalin Line and the new Soviet-German border.
fasquardon
Agree with all of the above and there are some extras:
1st, everybody keeps talking about effect of the purges but the problem was not only with the top levels (quite a few of these commanders had not been up to the modern war but let it be) but the problems on the lower levels of the chain of command had been huge. The junior officers routinely were grossly under-trained and the same goes for the non-coms.
2nd, general educational level of the conscripts even in 1940 - 41 was quite low even for the elite motorized units and even worse for those who just finished their service. People in their 30s, who had been called to service later during the war at least had life experience but what are you going to expect from the teenagers or even those 20 years old?
3rd, even with all ongoing industrialization the Soviet industry could not produce enough of the new items and, while it is popular to quote the number of the T-34s and KVs available in 1941, it is much less popular to talk about the spare parts (mostly absent), field-level repair shops (practically absent), shortage of the tractors for moving the broken tanks to the (absent) repair shops, shortage of the ammunition (for the tank units in 1941 well below the regulated level, especially as far as armor piercing shells were involved), and many other similar things. For example, the big numbers of the semi-automatic rifles had been produced before the war but production could not be supported during the war forcing to switch back to the old rifles later augmented by the automatic rifles.
4th, Stalin Line is nice but it was built for a military doctrine of the 1930s according to which the enemy should break its head attacking the fortifications headlong after which the Red Army would counter-attack into the gaps between the fortified regions. A mobile warfare was still a military dream at that time. In a reality, the Germans had been attacking into the gaps and encircling the fortified areas like Kiev Fortified Region. Even if fortifications had been fully armed, the defending troops would still be encircled.
5th, Neither the executed/imprisoned nor the surviving commanders were uniformly competent in a modern warfare. Most of them, being byproducts of the RCW, weren't. So their ability to adjust easily to the new circumstances are highly questionable (as was demonstrated by Blucher at Khasan).
6th, By 1941 the Red Army had a number of the mechanized corps and they were destroyed within the first few weeks of war. Each of them had 2 tank and 1 motorized division and support units.: 30,000 personnel, 1,031 tank, 100 field guns, 36 anti-tank guns, 36 AA guns, 5,165 trucks, 352 tractors, 15 planes, etc. They could not maneuver and coordinate actions of the units. What's even worse, there was no coordination with aviation (story that all Soviet aviation had been destroyed during the first day of war is a legend). Of course, the numbers are "paper" numbers and training of the personal is nowhere to be seen.