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As far as I know the Japanese during this time period did not possess the best of judgement. And the Japanese did not lose that poorly during the battle of Lake Khasan so what if in an irrational attempt at preserving pride the japanese didn't back down and instead escalated. To them the Soviet were intruding into their territory and if they were to back down this would be allowing the so called "Barbarians"* to walk all over them.

Regardless of whatever POD it would take for a larger conflict to break out what would occur? I don't think the japanese would expend as much oil as they would in the pacific war seeing how the conflict would mostly be landlocked. Still the Japanese would probably be mauled pretty severely and they'd have to pull troops from china to preserve Manchuria.

So what would be the farther reaching consequences? Would the soviets go for the full fledged neutralization of the menace to the south?


*Or whatever Japanese propaganda called the bolsheviks.
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