Soviet-Japanse war in the 1930s?

[Consumerist]

As far as I know the Japanese during this time period did not possess the best of judgement. And the Japanese did not lose that poorly during the battle of Lake Khasan so what if in an irrational attempt at preserving pride the japanese didn't back down and instead escalated. To them the Soviet were intruding into their territory and if they were to back down this would be allowing the so called "Barbarians"* to walk all over them.

Regardless of whatever POD it would take for a larger conflict to break out what would occur? I don't think the japanese would expend as much oil as they would in the pacific war seeing how the conflict would mostly be landlocked. Still the Japanese would probably be mauled pretty severely and they'd have to pull troops from china to preserve Manchuria.

So what would be the farther reaching consequences? Would the soviets go for the full fledged neutralization of the menace to the south?


*Or whatever Japanese propaganda called the bolsheviks.

 

[admkenshin]

The Japanese leadership were of course worried by the Russians, in part because of the threat they posed to Manchuria, and also due to a large communist movement in Japan. Still, unlike the pacific war, I do not see the chance for anyone in the government to win anything by losing to the Soviets. The Japanese honestly believed that in a war, they would eventually be pushed back to the Yalu. So, a war to gain political power at home would not work for long. Furthermore there is little to gain in Siberia, and even a victorious conflict would only serve to make the Russians even more dangerous.

There is simply no reason, political, personal or economic, for this war. The Sino-Japanese conflict is already providing the outlet for Japan's military production required to keep the economy afloat.

 

[DaleCoz]

Soviets & Japanese

As I recall it, the Japanese actually considered a preemptive war on the Soviets in the early 1930s because the Soviets were rapidly increasing their military power as a result of the success of their forced industrialization drive. The Japanese had been stronger militarily along the Manchurian border with the Soviets, but feared that the Soviet industrialization and build-up would tilt the balance against them (which, of course, it eventually did).

The advent of Hitler and German rearmament led the Japanese to decide that the Germans would counterbalance the rising Soviet power and that there was not urgency to a preemptive strike. A delay in Hitler's rise to power might lead to Japan going after the Soviets around 1934. I did a scenario where that happened maybe ten or eleven years ago, but frankly it wasn't very good. It would be kind of cool to research the weapons the two sides would have at that point in depth and play it out. My guess is that the Soviet build-up happened fast enough that by the time the Japanese realized that the balance of power was shifting it would have already shifted enough that it would be risky for the Japanese to attack. On the other hand, the Soviets would be fighting at the end of a long and shaky logistics rope, which would give the Japanese some chance if they attacked early enough.

 

[Grey Wolf]

And the earlier it happens, the more relevant recent Japanese experience is because they already had experience operating in that area (both militarily and politically) during the Russian Civil War

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Paul MacQ]

Earlier in the 1930's the Better for Japan. Depending when and reasons for the Confrontation you might actually end up with a Japanese and Poles vs. the USSR.

By 1928 Japan and Poland had diplomatic Discussions regarding mutual support regarding war with Russia. Ramp up the diplomacy you might get the Poles onside, depends on relations and what is happening in the West.

Mid 1930s The Russians are getting too much of an Army Equipment advantage,
Armour like the T26 was starting to Mature. Early in your Facing twin MG armed and 37mm armed versions in small numbers. Later on the powerful for the time 45mm in a twin manned turret.

Polikarpovs are getting into service ( I-15 and I-16 ) That really needed to be faced with aircraft like the Ki-27 and the Mitsubishi A5M. Also Bomber you get the Tupolev SB in production in 1936.

Russians are still going to have major advantages in Weight and quality of Artillery. Also Tactics and Doctrine were well ahead of the rest of the world in the early 1930's

Pre Purges the Leadership of the Russian Army is also rather good and advanced.

Japan was always going to be effectively a light Infantry forces with a scattering of poor Tanks. Which is just fine in the right Terrain. But in the open expanses near the Boarder Terrible.

Could see a War with Just USSR and Japan happening with Japan holding the coast and Harbour cities otherwise getting pushed till it gets into much more defensible country. Then things getting Too Bloody to support with things heating up in the west for Russia even without fighting Poland that Mobilizes yet finally backs down Say in 1932 and USSR “Liberating Manchuria”

This just might be enough to give the kick in the teeth the Militarists need for some liberalization of Japanese Politics. Lots of Possibilities and Butterflies, If Japan gets its Butt handed to it on a Plate. I can see it being very unlikely for Japan to have adventures in China come 1937 being more worried about more confrontations with Russia.

 

[Consumerist]

It might also affect Europe's perception of the USSR in the case of a decisive victory. A rapidly strengthening Comintern might perturb the UK or Germany.