Depends what it's over or what either side would classify as "winning" but the Japanese have the advantage.
A prolonged conflict would have been impossible though. While at war Japan could temporarily avoid the inefficiencies of the monetary system, but in the end she needs to buy resources, mainly from the US. This requires a foreign exchange, and except for silk Japan had little the US wanted.
An early discovery of the Daqing oil fields would probably lead the Japanese to invade Manchuria earlier, and spend more energy on reducing Russian power in the area, while at the same time allow them to stay in war economy mode for longer. This might give you the conflict you seek.
In the end we could possibly have a semi-hot war between the USSR and Japan, with small skirmishes fought in Primorsk and Manchuria, with no real border to speak of.