Soviet Japanese Oil Trade

According to the Wikipedia, "Sakhalin Island has the most important oil reserves in the Russian Far East. In 1936, the Ohka oil wells extracted about 470,000 tonnes; one-third were obtained for Japanese concessionaires. In the Emba River area about 466,000 tonnes were extracted ... in 1937." I gather Siberia was 1.6% of Soviet oil production in 1940. The civilian Japanese economy in 1941 was estimated to consume 12.6 million barrels (I estimate that to be 1.26 million tonnes). Japan imported oil from California because those fields and refineries were not well connected to the East Coast and it was not economical to ship it, instead it was profitable to export across the Pacific. My understanding is that much of the West coast oil production was exported. Thus in 1940 I think Russia has not enough oil to satisfy Japan.

As oil production increases the USSR could certainly supply Japan and likely does, it is how the Soviets think, supplying oil gives them a strategic lever and uses your money to fund their "revolution" against you. In terms of strategy I think the USSR would love to become a significant exporter to Japan and thereafter corrupt her and hold her hostage. You might dig deeper and find total Soviet production and if it can be shipped by rail to Japan from Baku and other fields. Then see if Japan has enough gold or exports to the USSR to pay. Avoiding the war might let this develop and it is strange to think of Japan dependent upon the USSR for her oil.
 
In an ATL, in 1920s and 1930s when the SU were already entrenched in power, IJ would better off trading with the SU in the open while sending "volunteers" to Finland or Estonia to help fight the Winter War, with reference to Franco's Spanish diplomatic stance. However, if the USA did not interfere in around 1925 as in the OTL to force Japan, IJ could still retain the whole Sakhalin island. Then IJ could get the another two-thirds of the 470,000 tonnes. German technological help could turn unused timber from paper marking and/or coal to oil and there would be an unestimated albeit meager amount of oil for use. So in a nutshell, IJ in 1930s either traded with the the USA, the SU or the Netherlands for oil in the Dutch East Indies...
 

kernals12

Banned
Until the late 1950s, the oil industry was absolutely dominated by the United States. The Soviets didn't produce nearly enough to feed the Japanese war machine.
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