Soviet invasion of Iran

We all know that a Soviet invasion of Iran was considered as CENTCOM's biggest threat during the 80s.

In a limited (as in confined to the Middle East) war, could the US have actually held Iran against a Spviet armoured thrust?

Presumably, when the Soviets invade from the north and northeast, 2nd Marine Division & the 82nd Airborne go in at Bandar Abbas. The 9th Motorized, 10th Mountain, 101st Air Assault, & 24th Mech go in behind them...Would this have been enough to prevent the Red Army reaching the Gulf in say 1984 or 85?

IMHO, no, it wouldn't be; the Soviet armies (three at least, probably more in CENTCOMs estimates) were all armoured or mechanized, with the US only having one heavy division. Is it possible that the XVIII Airborne Corps would be destroyed or forced to pull a Dunkirk?
 
Let's stop before going full WWIII ("nukes fly everyone dies" is a boring answer anyway). Remember that Iran at this time had spent several years antagonizing the US, and it would probably make the Reagan administration look a little bad to openly back up a government that in very fresh memory had had mobs chanting "Death to America" in the streets. The US will probably take steps to stop the Red Army from reaching the Persian Gulf, but I don't think they'd interfere too harshly with a Soviet attack that gets to Tehran. Maybe some kind of partition deal is possible, with a US-backed client along the coast and an Iranian Democratic Republic (or whatever name) along the Soviet and Iraqi borders (minus a chunk to Iraq)?
 
Soviets would be far more likely to just rip off the Azerbaijani Parts as a buffer state and help Iraq get Khuzestan. They wouldn't want to deal with the nightmare of occupying 40 million people in mountainous country or the risk of war with the United States.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Why would they invade a staunchly anti western country ? The iranian influence in supporting mujahedeen was minimal
 
Why would they invade a staunchly anti-Western country? The Iranian influence in supporting mujahideen was minimal.
It might have been staunchly anti-Western but that doesn't automatically translate to a pro-Soviet or even neutral stance, on the one hand you have a theocracy and on the other you have a state one of whose foundational thinkers described religion as 'the opium of the masses'. I mean just look at how the Tudeh Party have been treated.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
It might have been staunchly anti-Western but that doesn't automatically translate to a pro-Soviet or even neutral stance, on the one hand you have a theocracy and on the other you have a state one of whose foundational thinkers described religion as 'the opium of the masses'. I mean just look at how the Tudeh Party have been treated.
True but their shia evangelism is not much a threat to muslims in USSR, even azeris are more anti iranian than anything else as in OTL
 
True but their shia evangelism is not much a threat to muslims in USSR, even azeris are more anti iranian than anything else as in OTL
They were paranoid that the Islamic revolution would spread to Islamic Population of the country.Regards of whether or not the fears were true is irrelevant as the Soviets regard it as possible .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovie...an–Iraq_War#Active_support_for_Iraq_(1986–89)

https://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/iran-and-russia
 
One scenario that could provoke a Soviet intervention would be if post-revolution Iran fell into a civil war between Islamists and leftists. The Tudeh, Iran's Communist party, had been allied with the Islamists in the first few years after the revolution. That ended in 1982 when the Islamist regime shut down Tudeh's newspaper and purged Tudeh members from the government, followed in 1983 by mass arrests of Tudeh members and the banning of the party. Perhaps if Tudeh had been a step or two ahead of the Islamists and avoided getting suppressed, then they could've attempted a coup or provoked a rebellion; the Tudeh had already made inroads in the officer corps of the Iranian military, which would have helped them. The Soviets might see that power vacuum as an opportunity to intervene in Iran to help the Tudeh establish a Soviet-friendly Communist regime and - more importantly for the USSR - to gain access to the Persian Gulf.

A Soviet intervention in Iran is unlikely to happen if they're already actively bogged down in Afghanistan. Had the Soviets not invaded and occupied Afghanistan, then maybe they would feel more willing to take action regarding Iran.
 

kernals12

Banned
We all know that a Soviet invasion of Iran was considered as CENTCOM's biggest threat during the 80s.

In a limited (as in confined to the Middle East) war, could the US have actually held Iran against a Spviet armoured thrust?

Presumably, when the Soviets invade from the north and northeast, 2nd Marine Division & the 82nd Airborne go in at Bandar Abbas. The 9th Motorized, 10th Mountain, 101st Air Assault, & 24th Mech go in behind them...Would this have been enough to prevent the Red Army reaching the Gulf in say 1984 or 85?

IMHO, no, it wouldn't be; the Soviet armies (three at least, probably more in CENTCOMs estimates) were all armoured or mechanized, with the US only having one heavy division. Is it possible that the XVIII Airborne Corps would be destroyed or forced to pull a Dunkirk?
Citation please.
 

kernals12

Banned
Remember that Iran at this time had spent several years antagonizing the US
That's an understatement.
Maybe some kind of partition deal is possible, with a US-backed client along the coast and an Iranian Democratic Republic (or whatever name) along the Soviet and Iraqi borders (minus a chunk to Iraq)?
That would violate dozens of international laws. And for the Soviets, it would reek of the Molotov-Ribbentropp pact.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
My apologies to the original poster if I may provide a little twist

Let's stay the Shah does not fall no revolution happens and still the Soviets invade in 1980 ( For whatever political excuse)
When I did them that what was shot in to me is that the Soviets were incapable of attacking or occupying any part of Iran by 1980 without revolution
Shahs airforce with 77 f14 and 200 f4 he had more SARH LRAAM equipped fighters than available to NATO At that time along the central front

So Is the Soviet attack with the forces available to them at time in central Asia and if they draw in units from the European part of USSR as well they are still completely outclassed in terms of air power ( if figures of military balance 1979_80 are a guide they have only 1300 mig23m available in 1979 At min if they keep 1000 of them to counter NATO in Europe , that leaves only 300 floggers to unleash against the Shah).

So in terms of air power in this scenario Soviets are completely outclassed ...what do you think guys ?
 
Last edited:
Top