Soviet Invasion of Hokkaido

So in 1945 the Soviets had rolled over the Kuril islands and South Sakhalin and the popular interpretation of history has it that Japan surrendered to the US just in time to avoid a Soviet conquest of Hokkaido.

So let's say that Japan is determined to fight to the end like Germany.

Consensus on this board seems to take as a given that Hokkaido is rolled over much like South Sakhalin and the Kurils. However, given that there was a lot of recent debate about the IJA's actual chances against the Red Army, I wonder if this is really the case. Certainly the IJA would have had a hard time relocating forces from its build up in Kyushu on short notice.

If the Soviets invade Hokkaido, might it prompt America to invade ahead of schedule so as to ensure the Soviets don't steal their victory?
 
The Soviet military attache in Japan told Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers in Japan General Douglas MacArthur that the Soviets would occupy Northern Japan if it weren't given to them and General MacArthur told him they would be stopped by force if that was what it took.
 

nbcman

Donor
So in 1945 the Soviets had rolled over the Kuril islands and South Sakhalin and the popular interpretation of history has it that Japan surrendered to the US just in time to avoid a Soviet conquest of Hokkaido.

So let's say that Japan is determined to fight to the end like Germany.

Consensus on this board seems to take as a given that Hokkaido is rolled over much like South Sakhalin and the Kurils. However, given that there was a lot of recent debate about the IJA's actual chances against the Red Army, I wonder if this is really the case. Certainly the IJA would have had a hard time relocating forces from its build up in Kyushu on short notice.

If the Soviets invade Hokkaido, might it prompt America to invade ahead of schedule so as to ensure the Soviets don't steal their victory?
I would hardly call having battles where the Soviets lost 30% of their landing craft when invading Shumshu (or 5 of the invading 16 LCIs out of their total of 30 LCIs which were 'Lent' as part of Project Hula) and 20% of the invading troops as a roll over.
 
Massive bloodbath. Heavy casualties on both sides as the Japan used civilians as soldiers.
Dunno how this would effect the rest of history though.
 
I would hardly call having battles where the Soviets lost 30% of their landing craft when invading Shumshu (or 5 of the invading 16 LCIs out of their total of 30 LCIs which were 'Lent' as part of Project Hula) and 20% of the invading troops as a roll over.
Shumushu was indeed a tough nut to crack, but IIRC the rest of the Kurils were taken with minimal bloodshed after it fell.
 
So in 1945 the Soviets had rolled over the Kuril islands and South Sakhalin and the popular interpretation of history has it that Japan surrendered to the US just in time to avoid a Soviet conquest of Hokkaido.

So let's say that Japan is determined to fight to the end like Germany.

Consensus on this board seems to take as a given that Hokkaido is rolled over much like South Sakhalin and the Kurils. However, given that there was a lot of recent debate about the IJA's actual chances against the Red Army, I wonder if this is really the case. Certainly the IJA would have had a hard time relocating forces from its build up in Kyushu on short notice.

If the Soviets invade Hokkaido, might it prompt America to invade ahead of schedule so as to ensure the Soviets don't steal their victory?

It was completely impossible for the Soviet Union to invade mainland Japan in August 1945; they didn't have either the shipping or manpower for it (Zhukov estimated 4 armies/corps would be necessary) as their efforts were directed elsewhere.

Furthermore, neither Sakhalin or the Kuriles were walk-overs and the garrisons there handed over their weapons after receiving orders to surrender rather than actually being defeated in the traditional military sense.
 
I think the biggest issue for the Russians is getting their forces over the water. Kamikaze attacks would reek havoc. Considering the damage they did during Okinawa, against the most heavily defended surface force every seen, the Russians are comparatively defenseless.

ric350
 
The japanese forces in Hokkaido in 1945 consisted of parts of the Fifth Area Army (the 42. Division and the 7. Division to be precise) and the whole Northern District Army. Overall the japanese had 4 divisions on Hokkaido, with a total manpower of around 80,000. These forces were ill equipped and trained, having only 70% of the neccessary equipment and 50% of the fuel. Most of the soldiers were militiamen or conscripted students and workers.

The planed soviet invasion force consisted of the 87. Rifle Corps, which comprised the 231st and 300th Rifle Division. Though the soviets would only have had 2 Divisions, these were well equipped veteran units which had seen combat since 1941. Moreover the soviets would have air superiority, and though fighter cover possibilities were limited due to the distances, it would still help greatly.

The soviets planed to land on Hokkaidos eastern coast, at the port of Rumoi. The japanese forces were stationed on the islands west to fend of a potential american invasion, so it would take them some time to react.

Moreover, despite their limited shipping capabilities, the soviets would've been able to reinforce their troops ashore with more elite Divisions. The japanese on the contrary, as allready mentioned, severely lacked equipment and manpower, and would have had a hard time sustaining even their forces allready on the island.

Last but not least, the invasion was to take place in late August/early September. On August 15. the japanese Emperor held his surrender speech. Though the japanese military leadership continued the fight, japanese soldiers in Manchuria and Korea surrendered én masse. Large scale surrenders were expected on Hokkaido, aswell.

Overall, in my humble opinion, the soviet invasion of Hokkaido would likely have suceeded. In the end it never took place however. This had multiple reasons: On one side many in the soviet high comand had serious doubts if the invasion was militarily feasible. In my opinion such doubts were the product of overestimation of Japans military capabilities and the real problems the red army would face. On the other hand, the pollitical consequences could've possibly been very bad. The americans and soviets had not talked about a soviet occupation zone in Japan, and the US president Truman had officially "forbidden" the soviets to invade the home islands. According to soviet foreign minister Molotov the invasion would just have created unnecessary tensions.
 
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The Soviet military attache in Japan told Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers in Japan General Douglas MacArthur that the Soviets would occupy Northern Japan if it weren't given to them and General MacArthur told him they would be stopped by force if that was what it took.

Source?
 
As others have said, how are the Soviets going to land on a contested beach head or port?

On top of that Hokkaido itself is not a fun place to fight through, and rather underwhelming in resources, and even if you do what's your prize?

You then have to jump to Honshu


If the US doesn't want the Soviets invading, the USN will make sure it doesn't, or cut it off if it already happened.

Since that would involve the US and USSR forces fighting (not that the USN walloping whatever the soviet navy has there would be much of a fight) I don't think that's very likely.

However maybe a better USN tactic here would be not to offer the soviets a lift to Hokkaido :) !
 
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