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I recently had a discussion regarding a scenario where the German Empire emerges victorious in WW1, and props up the newly independent regimes in the Baltics, Ukraine, and Belarus. If the regimes in those countries survive for at least a few decades, what would the industrial situation be of a Soviet Union that still manages to secure the rest of the former Russian Empire, but is never able to reintegrate the western territories?

Also, how would this doubtlessly less advantageous material state affect Soviet foreign policy? Would Stalin's notion of Socialism in One Country be even stronger due to the lack of warmaking capability, or would the Trotskyite idea of spreading the revolution gain more favor, and what form would that idea take if Trotsky is in charge?

My personal guess is that the Soviet Union has to come to a detente with the rest of the world in order to acquire the resources it needs to build its economy, food and coal. This means less conquest, and ultimately less influence of communism on the eventual nationalist movements around the world.
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