Soviet Industralization without Brest-Litovsk Territory

I recently had a discussion regarding a scenario where the German Empire emerges victorious in WW1, and props up the newly independent regimes in the Baltics, Ukraine, and Belarus. If the regimes in those countries survive for at least a few decades, what would the industrial situation be of a Soviet Union that still manages to secure the rest of the former Russian Empire, but is never able to reintegrate the western territories?

Also, how would this doubtlessly less advantageous material state affect Soviet foreign policy? Would Stalin's notion of Socialism in One Country be even stronger due to the lack of warmaking capability, or would the Trotskyite idea of spreading the revolution gain more favor, and what form would that idea take if Trotsky is in charge?

My personal guess is that the Soviet Union has to come to a detente with the rest of the world in order to acquire the resources it needs to build its economy, food and coal. This means less conquest, and ultimately less influence of communism on the eventual nationalist movements around the world.
 
No Ukrainan grain, no Baku oil, no Belarusian coal. The Soviet Union industrialization is massively slowed. The Japanese could probably take Vladivostok if Russia is this weakened.
 
It depends - how much territory does this ATL USSR keep outside of the Eastern European provinces such as Ukraine or Belarus?

Anything besides those territories and the Baltics is on the table. As Bourbonic Plague said, the Japanese might take Vladivostok, but I'm more interested in what they'd do with everything but the three territories I mentioned.
 
Anything besides those territories and the Baltics is on the table. As Bourbonic Plague said, the Japanese might take Vladivostok, but I'm more interested in what they'd do with everything but the three territories I mentioned.
Increased collectivization and industrialization in Kazakhstan, Siberia, the Urals, etc. which could mean more Russian losses.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Looks like you have Germans win after B-L treaty. Bit hard to get this POD, but will run with it but even with this run, you should accept Stalin is unlikely to rise to power. For example, he will not be a senior leader in Soviet-Polish war since Germany would attack to help Poland. Now on to post.

  • The Soviets are going to be much more insecure than OTL. If you look at the west, the Soviets are cutoff by German, A-H, Ottoman trade block (alliance).
  • UK is crippled economically.
  • Good chance Soviets are so weak that Japan regains "rightful" lands in east.
  • UK and USA will be very anti-socialist.
  • Soviets have lost bulk of non-Russian Russians.

So, we have a much more Russian mindset. The country will be export oriented to the German block and will industrialize with German tech. It will be a slow process. Think more Leninism done slow than Stalin's big actions.
 
Looks like you have Germans win after B-L treaty. Bit hard to get this POD, but will run with it but even with this run, you should accept Stalin is unlikely to rise to power. For example, he will not be a senior leader in Soviet-Polish war since Germany would attack to help Poland. Now on to post.

  • The Soviets are going to be much more insecure than OTL. If you look at the west, the Soviets are cutoff by German, A-H, Ottoman trade block (alliance).
  • UK is crippled economically.
  • Good chance Soviets are so weak that Japan regains "rightful" lands in east.
  • UK and USA will be very anti-socialist.
  • Soviets have lost bulk of non-Russian Russians.

So, we have a much more Russian mindset. The country will be export oriented to the German block and will industrialize with German tech. It will be a slow process. Think more Leninism done slow than Stalin's big actions.
Could there perhaps be a longer-lasting NEP?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Could there perhaps be a longer-lasting NEP?

Not my really my best area, but sounds likely. Take the NEP and implement it 50% slower. Then do NEP phase II which is an evolutionary change. That is more what I expect.

I also expect a real siege mentality and big focus on a powerful army for the the defense. No purges. And a real flexibility of reforming Tsarist officers. Think West Germany 1950.

I also expect the Russians to start trying to regain the lands. But only one opponent at a time. This will depend a lot based on the details of the ATL. But something where the Soviet economy is built on imported German machine tools, the Soviet army is remodeled on Prussian Army, and the Soviets build good RR to regain lands in the east and gain lands towards India would not surprise me.
 
Not my really my best area, but sounds likely. Take the NEP and implement it 50% slower. Then do NEP phase II which is an evolutionary change. That is more what I expect.

I also expect a real siege mentality and big focus on a powerful army for the the defense. No purges. And a real flexibility of reforming Tsarist officers. Think West Germany 1950.

I also expect the Russians to start trying to regain the lands. But only one opponent at a time. This will depend a lot based on the details of the ATL. But something where the Soviet economy is built on imported German machine tools, the Soviet army is remodeled on Prussian Army, and the Soviets build good RR to regain lands in the east and gain lands towards India would not surprise me.
Who would lead these efforts after Lenin dies?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Who would lead these efforts after Lenin dies?

With butterflies, we have not real idea. When one gets many layers of butterflies, you just can't see that far. Imagine trying to imagine Hitler from a 1920 German in an ATL where the Germans won. Or in same ATL, imagine 1970 German Historian imaging what a loss would have been like.
 
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