Soviet-German commercial agreement without Barbarossa

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

Say if Hitler was convinced that invading the USSR was too risky, but that Soviet entry into the Axis was unworkable, how would the Soviet-German trade agreement worked out in 1940 play out without a war in the East?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Commercial_Agreement_(1940)
The Germans had stopped payment on their end of the bargain, as they were using their resources to prepare to invade the USSR. If opting out of Barbarossa it seems likely they would have to keep paying to keep resources flowing, even if they fell behind in deliveries. Also without the invasion the Germans could keep the army divisions they had limited in number and keep some 1-1.5 million more men in the economy (about the number mobilized in 1941 for Barbarossa and had been demobbed after France had fallen), while leaving a bunch of civilian trucks and automobiles in occupied countries (trains too in France) which would keep their economies from declining as rapidly as IOTL. With a lot less combat expenses they could conserve fuel and raw material stocks a lot longer and just have more labor to a variety of projects, including producing what they owed the Soviets.
So how would things play out for 1941 and beyond if Barbarossa is nixed in say January 1941 (when Hitler opted for it IOTL).
 
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